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The 2022 MLB playoffs begin on Friday for the New York Mets, who seek their first postseason victory since the 2015 World Series. They will host the San Diego Padres in Game 1 of the National League Wild Card Series, and New York (101-61) has lost three straight home playoff games since that World Series appearance. San Diego (89-73) has won just one playoff series since being swept by the New York Yankees in the 1998 World Series, defeating St. Louis in the 2020 NL Wild Card Series before losing three straight against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Division Series. Max Scherzer (11-5, 2.29 ERA) gets the nod for New York, while the Padres will counter with Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA).

First pitch at Citi Field is set for 8:07 p.m. ET. New York is a -155 money-line favorite (risk $155 to win $100) in the latest Mets vs. Padres odds from Caesars Sportsbook. The Padres are +130 underdogs, while the over/under for total runs scored is 6. Before making any Padres vs. Mets picks, you need to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's advanced computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, and it entered the final week of the regular season on an 18-8 run on top-rated money-line MLB picks, returning almost $700 for $100 players. This is the same model that pegged the 2021 Atlanta Braves at 10-1 as one of three best bets to win it all last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mets vs. Padres, and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Padres vs. Mets:

  • Mets vs. Padres money line: New York -155, San Diego +130 
  • Mets vs. Padres over/under: 6 runs 
  • Mets vs. Padres run line: New York -1.5 (+158)
  • NYM: The Mets have lost five of their last six postseason games 
  • SD: The Padres are 1-5 in their last six road playoff contests 
  • Mets vs. Padres picks: See picks here
Featured Game | New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres

Why you should back the Mets

New York is counting on three-time Cy Young Award winner Scherzer to come up with another strong postseason performance. The 38-year-old right-hander is 7-6 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 26 career playoff outings. Opponents are hitting .195 in the postseason against Scherzer, who went 3-0 during Washington's run to the world championship in 2019 and registered a 2.16 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with the Dodgers in last year's playoffs.

Jeff McNeil had a major league-best .326 batting average this season and enters the series with a 10-game hitting streak that has featured eight multi-hit performances. The 30-year-old is just 1-for-11 lifetime against Darvish, but the one hit was a home run. Pete Alonso had another strong year at the plate, belting 40 home runs while leading the NL with a career-high 131 RBI, and Francisco Lindor set a personal best by driving in 107 runs.

Why you should back the Padres

San Diego received some impressive efforts from its starting pitchers against the Mets in the regular season, including two by Darvish. The five-time All-Star allowed only two hits over seven scoreless innings in a home victory on June 7 and limited the Mets to one run and four hits with nine strikeouts over seven frames on July 22  in a triumph at Citi Field. In eight career starts against New York, Darvish has gone 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.74 WHIP while registering 58 strikeouts and issuing only nine walks over 52 ⅔ innings. San Diego won the season series against New York 4-2. 

The Padres had the fourth-best road mark in the NL this year, finishing at 45-36 after winning five of their final six games away from home. Manny Machado had a superb season at the plate, finishing tied for fourth in the senior circuit with a .298 batting average while hitting 32 homers and driving in 102 runs. San Diego has another dangerous offensive weapon in Juan Soto, who is a proven postseason performer as he had five home runs and 14 RBI in 17 games during Washington's run to the world championship in 2019.

How to make Mets vs. Padres picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 8.0 total runs. It also says one side of the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Mets vs. Padres? And which side has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of Padres vs. Mets you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.