The St. Louis Cardinals enter the 2022 season with strong and plausible designs on the NL Central title. They also enter the 2022 season with the likelihood that anything less than a division flag and semi-deep playoff run will be regarded as a failure.
In part, this is because of the strength of the roster that's in place -- a roster that, mostly intact from last year, won 90 games a season ago. Mostly, though, it's about the surprise decision early in the offseason to move on from erstwhile manager Mike Shildt. In three-plus seasons on the job, Shildt guided the Cards to the postseason three times, once via division title. As well, his .559 win percentage as Cardinals manager is higher than that of recent predecessors Mike Matheny, Tony La Russa, and -- going a bit further back -- Whitey Herzog.
Into that somewhat imposing breach steps 35-year-old Oliver Marmol. Marmol served last season as the Cardinals' bench coach under Shildt and has been a part of the team's MLB staff since 2017. He's a former Cardinals draftee and minor leaguer who also served as a hitting coach in the minors. Marmol also boasts managerial experience at the minor-league level, as he guided Johnson City and Palm Beach within the Cardinals' system. Across five seasons as a Cardinals minor-league manager, Marmol compiled a record of 268-225 (.544) with four postseason appearances. No less important is that Marmol is open to a more collaborative relationship with the front office, the lack of which was apparently Shildt's downfall (at least to hear baseball-ops prez John Mozeliak tell it).
Whatever Marmol's merits, he and brass's decision to move on from Shildt will be judged by the standings and the postseason. With that pressurized environment duly noted, let's have a closer look at the 2022 Cardinals as Opening Day blessedly looms.
Win total projection, odds
- 2021 record: 90-72
- 2022 Sportsline projection: 88-74
- World Series odds (via Caesars Sportsbook): +2500
Projected lineup
- Tommy Edman, 2B
- Paul Goldschmidt, 1B
- Tyler O'Neill, LF
- Nolan Arenado, 3B
- Dylan Carlson, RF
- Yadier Molina, C
- Corey Dickerson, DH
- Paul DeJong, SS
- Harrison Bader, CF
Last season the Cardinals ranked a middling 10th in the NL in runs scored and eighth in OPS. If you look at the park-adjusted metric OPS+, however, the Cardinals rank a more respectable fifth in the senior circuit (Busch Stadium is a pronounced pitchers' park). The further development of young batsman Dylan Carlson should help matters in 2022, as should a full season from Harrison Bader, who's evolved into a solid hitter. Corey Dickerson figures to be a useful primary half of a DH platoon, and DH types who can hit lefties aren't hard to come by. As for Paul DeJong, he was notably disappointing last season, and he'll need to overcome some troubling batted-ball trends if he's going to rise to adequacy with the bat in 2022. DeJong's glove is a major asset, but he needs to produce north of 2022 levels with the bat. Given that the Cardinals passed on serious bidding for the multiple shortstop grades on the market, they're betting heavily that DeJong and fallback Edmundo Sosa can get it done.
Projected rotation
- Adam Wainwright, RHP
- Miles Mikolas, RHP
- Steven Matz, LHP
- Dakota Hudson, RHP
- Jake Woodford, RHP
The two stories here? The lack of depth (and the absence of Jack Flaherty at the moment) and the even stronger groundball tendencies. Both of those matters will be addressed in further depth below. Last season, the Cardinals ranked sixth in the NL with a rotation ERA of 4.01 and 11th in the NL with an FIP of 4.49. Gone from last year's mix are Kwang-hyun Kim, Carlos Martinez, and John Gant.
Projected bullpen
Closer - Giovanny Gallegos, RHP
Setup - Ryan Helsley, RHP
Setup - Génesis Cabrera, LHP
Setup - Jordan Hicks, RHP
Middle - Nick Wittgren, RHP
Middle - T.J. McFarland, LHP
Middle - Drew VerHagen, RHP
Middle - Kodi Whitley, RHP
Long - Johan Oviedo, RHP
In 2021, the Cards' relief corps placed seventh in the NL with a bullpen ERA of 3.97 and fourth with a bullpen FIP of 4.04. This year, hard-throwing Jordan Hicks returns to the fray after a slow recovery from Tommy John surgery that was performed in June of 2019. His health history is troubling, but if his arm woes are truly behind him, at least for now, he could be a big asset. Speaking of arm woes, Alex Reyes, the closer for most of 2021, will miss at least the first two months of the upcoming regular season with a frayed labrum in his shoulder. Considering his run of injuries, he's very much an unknown quantity moving forward. New to the scene are right-handers Nick Wittgren and Drew VerHagen. Righty Aaron Brooks is also in the running for a spot as an NRI.
Rotation depth and the lack thereof
The Cardinals probably should've addressed their rotation even before ace-when-healthy Jack Flaherty came down with shoulder woes this spring. Now, Flaherty has an uncertain timetable for his return, and his recent health history since his standout 2019 season becomes that much more troubling. While Adam Wainwright has a strong record of performance over the past few seasons, he's still five years older than his manager and thus could enter steep decline at any moment. Steven Matz is an intriguing upside play, but he's also got a lengthy injury ledger. Miles Mikolas has been both healthy and highly effective once in his four seasons with St. Louis. As long as Flaherty's sidelined, the uncertainty cascades down to the fifth spot. Maybe top pitching prospect Matthew Liberatore will be ready soon for the bigs, but his inconsistent results in the minors raise concerns. Given those hovering question marks and the situation detailed above, the Cardinals probably should've done more than add Matz to the fold this winter. There's little margin for error here.
The importance of the infield defense
The Cardinals' boasted an exceptional infield defense last season (and team defense as a whole). With Goldschmidt, Edman, DeJong, and Arenado back in the fold, that should again be the case in 2022. That's a good thing because infield defense figures to be even more essential to the Cards' success this season.
Last year, the Cardinals' staff was better than the league-average mark when it comes to inducing ground balls. This season, however, they're adding Matz to the rotation. Matz is a sinker-changeup guy, primarily speaking, and as such he has pretty strong ground ball tendencies. As well, Dakota Hudson is welcomed back to the rotation after missing almost all of last year while he recovered from Tommy John surgery. Hudson is in the discussion for "most extreme groundballer in baseball." Given those two additions to the rotation, yes, turning balls on the ground into outs will be even more essential for St. Louis this season. Fortunately, they have the gloves to continue doing just that.
Nolan Gorman watch
One of the Cardinals' most intriguing power prospects in some time, Nolan Gorman, will almost certainly make it to St. Louis at some point during the 2022 season (and possibly early in the 2022 season). Here's what our R.J. Anderson recently had to say about him in ranking Gorman the No. 17 overall prospect for 2022:
"Gorman made two noteworthy changes last year, moving from third to second base on a nearly full-time basis and dropping his strikeout rate upon reaching Triple-A. Gorman's improved contact rate was accompanied by a change in his swing mechanics, as he lowered his hands to streamline his swing. He has well-above-average power, the kind you seldom see at the keystone; provided his defense is deemed tolerable (and he has improved), he should spend most of the 2022 season as the Cardinals' starting second baseman."
Gorman last season as a 21-year-old hit 25 home runs in 119 games combined at the Double- and Triple-A levels. That's in addition to the gains in contact rate noted above. The Cardinals, as detailed, wisely prioritize infield defense, and as such they may be reluctant to bump a plus fielder like Edman off second base in favor of a slugging convert to the position like Gorman. The Cardinals, though, could use some left-handed pop in the lineup, and Gorman promises plenty of that. The guess is that Gorman's bat wins out sooner rather than later and Edman switches back to a super-sub role.
