For the third consecutive start, Los Angeles Dodgers southpaw Hyun-Jin Ryu struggled greatly Thursday night. The Diamondbacks tagged him for a season-high-tying seven runs in 4 2/3 innings in their series-opening win (ARI 11, LAD 4). Ryu retired only five of the final 16 batters he faced.
Last time out Ryu allowed seven runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Yankees, and the start before that he allowed four runs in 5 2/3 innings against the Braves. That's 18 runs in the last three starts after Ryu allowed 18 runs combined in his previous 19 starts. That he still leads baseball with a 2.35 ERA tells you how dominant he was earlier this season.
Ryu attributed Thursday's rocky outing to Arizona being a familiar foe -- Thursday was his fourth start against the NL West rival D-Backs this year -- and having to adjust his approach on the mound. From Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times:
"I think the hitters' approach in general has caught up to how I used to pitch so I think there is a need for a change from my end to get ahead in the game again," Ryu said. "I think that's one change that has to come."
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"I don't think my command was as bad as the last two games that I pitched," Ryu said. "But I guess, result-wise, it wasn't there for me."
It's also possible fatigue is becoming an issue, though Ryu dismisses it as a cause for his recent struggles and manager Dave Roberts told Castillo he didn't believe fatigue was factor. Roberts added Ryu will make his next start in five days.
Already this season Ryu has made 25 starts and thrown 157 1/3 innings. He's missed lots of time with injuries during the last few years, including major shoulder surgery, so those 25 starts and 157 1/3 innings are his most since his MLB rookie season in 2013. Here are Ryu's innings totals with the Dodgers (includes minor league rehab starts and the postseason):
- 2013: 202 innings
- 2014: 158 innings (missed four weeks with shoulder and hip trouble)
- 2015: Did not pitch (shoulder surgery)
- 2016: 32 1/3 innings (missed most of the season rehabbing from shoulder surgery and with elbow inflammation)
- 2017: 126 2/3 innings (missed four weeks with hip and foot trouble)
- 2018: 110 1/3 innings (missed three and a half months with a groin strain)
- 2019: 157 1/3 innings (missed three weeks with neck and groin problems)
Ryu hitting a wall now is perfectly understandable. The good news is his arm has been healthy since shoulder surgery and a minor bout with elbow inflammation. The bad news is his workload is entering uncharted territory post-shoulder surgery. Ryu is 32 now, and the body doesn't recover the way it once did. Add in shoulder surgery and it's a double whammy for his durability.
The Dodgers came into Friday with a massive 19-game lead in the NL West. They are 6 1/2 games up on the Braves for the best record in the National League and thus homefield advantage through at least the NLCS, though MLB's best record is still up for grabs. The Dodgers, Astros, and Yankees are currently fighting for that and are separated by one game in the standings.
Point is, the Dodgers are in excellent shape in the standings, allowing them to ease up on Ryu down the stretch. In fact, Roberts has discussed the possibility recently. From ESPN's Alden Gonzalez:
In hopes of mitigating potential fatigue, the Los Angeles Dodgers are considering the possibility of either skipping one of Ryu's upcoming turns through the rotation, lengthening the amount of days between starts or shortening his outings moving forward. "I'll have that conversation with Hyun-Jin," Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said, "and we'll see what's best for him."
Not only do the Dodgers have a huge division lead, but rosters expand on Sunday as well, meaning they will have extra pitchers around to soak up innings. Letting Ryu skip a start or just get an extra day or two of rest between starts will be a piece of cake. The Dodgers will have the bodies to make it work, and the big division lead to not sweat it if it costs them a game.
It should be noted Ryu did recently experience a slight dip in fastball velocity -- a classic sign of fatigue -- though it did bounce back in his last two outings. Still, the temporary drop should be enough to catch the club's attention:
Ryu is hardly the only starter on a contending team that could use a break in September. You can be sure the Astros will ease up on Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Zack Greinke in the season's final weeks. The Yankees will give Domingo German and Masahiro Tanaka a break. The Braves could ease up on Mike Soroka. So on and so forth.
The Dodgers have not clinched anything yet, but they will soon. Their NL West magic number is a mere nine. At this point, the goal should not be letting Ryu help clinch the division or even getting him the Cy Young award. The goal should be getting Ryu prepared for October. Given his workload and recent performance, a little September breather would seem to be in the cards.
