HOUSTON -- Thanks to a strong start from Alex Wood, a timely Cody Bellinger revival, more late-inning power from Joc Pederson, and some lockdown bullpen work, the Dodgers edged the Astros on Saturday night and evened the 2017 World Series at two games apiece.
Afterward, Houston manager A.J. Hinch summed it up pretty nicely.
"So obviously it's the best of three now, and two of them will be at their place, one will be at our place," Hinch said.
Yes, going forward it's in essence a best-of-three for the belt and the title, and by taking a game in Houston on Saturday night -- the Astros' first home loss of the 2017 postseason -- the Dodgers reclaimed the home-field advantage that they squandered in Game 2.
With those facts now in evidence, Now let's spin this de-facto best-of-three series forward ...
Game 5: Minute Maid Park
Pitching matchup: Clayton Kershaw vs. Dallas Keuchel
This is a full-rest rematch of the Game 1 pitching matchup that saw Keuchel pitch well and Kershaw pitch brilliantly. This will occasion the third straight game without rest for these two squadrons, so bullpen usage patterns are relevant.
On that front, it's worth noting that Brandon Morrow has pitched in every game of the World Series thus far for the Dodgers. Manager Dave Roberts said Saturday night that Morrow will be available in Game 5, even though that seems risky. Uber-closer Kenley Jansen has pitched in all but one, and if you add his playoff load to his regular season work he's now thrown more than 80 innings. It may or may not be a coincidence that Jansen has looked uncommonly mortal thus far against Houston.
The good news is that, despite the game being in doubt until the ninth inning, Roberts was able to get by without using Kenta Maeda in Game 4. Maeda's been L.A.'s most reliable setup man during the playoffs, and his work as a starter means he's capable of getting well more than three outs in a given outing. The night off Saturday was no doubt welcomed by Maeda, who's worked nine innings in seven games during the playoffs. Throw in the travel day, and he's going to pitch at most once in three days.
The other bit of good news for the Dodgers is that Kershaw is of course capable of giving them length, and length is what they need right now. To be sure, Roberts isn't one to ride his starters in the playoffs, but he stuck with Kershaw for seven innings in Game 1 despite it being a 3-1 contest. Kershaw probably isn't going nine unless it's a blowout in the Dodgers' favor, but if he can give L.A. seven frames once again, it'll be a nice respite heading into the travel day.
"I like where we're at," Roberts said after Game 4. "This series up to this point, we've played four games, and there's been so many emotional swings, and we're dead even right now. And it's a three-game series, and we've got our ace going tomorrow. So I know that in our clubhouse we feel good."
As for Houston, Keuchel is also capable of working deep. Speaking of which, check out Keuchel's home-road splits for his career ...
| ERA | K/BB ratio | OPS against | |
|---|---|---|---|
Home | 2.94 | 2.99 | .622 |
Away | 4.43 | 2.57 | .756 |
That's a sharp divide, and it's been even sharper since Keuchel's breakout season of 2014. Given what Keuchel's done at home throughout recent history, he may be able to go pitch-for-pitch against Kershaw in Game 5.
Thanks in part to Brad Peacock's huge relief effort in Game 3, the Astros' pen isn't overtaxed at the moment. A.J. Hinch did, however, use his "core four" right-handers in relief of Charlie Morton on Saturday night. Chris Devenski, with three appearances, is the only Houston reliever who's pitched in more than two games this series. While the Houston pen isn't as good as L.A.'s, it's reasonably rested. Given Kershaw's excellence and Keuchel's home dominance, each team may not need to go deeper than two relievers apiece on Sunday night.
Game 6: Dodger Stadium
Pitching matchup: Justin Verlander vs. Rich Hill
This sort of sums up the Dodgers' straits: They must beat at least Keuchel or Verlander if they're going to hoist the trophy. The encouraging news is that their power bats eventually got to Verlander in Game 2 (that lead famously got squandered, but that's a different matter).
As for Hill, as noted last time out, the Astros are a very skilled team when it comes to hitting curveballs, but Hill these days has a much more balanced pitch mix. In Game 2, he was of course pulled after four effective innings. Roberts doesn't like for Hill to face the opposing lineup more than twice, so it would be a surprise if Hill, even if pitching well, faces more than 20 batters or so in Game 6.
The expectation is that Jansen will pitch barring an early blowout, and it'll be interesting to see how he responds to Monday's day of rest. He's been less than crisp thus far, as noted.
Game 7: Dodger Stadium (if necessary)
Pitching matchup: Lance McCullers vs. Yu Darvish
Presumably, this is how each manager will line it up in the potential winner-take-all finale. Hinch could piggyback with Brad Peacock, Collin McHugh or even Morton on three days' rest. As well, the Astros in the ALCS kicked around the idea of bringing Verlander back on no rest to work an inning against the Yankees in Game 7 if necessary (it turned out not to be). So that's something to bear in mind, as these two skippers will be pulling levers knowing there's no game tomorrow no matter what. As for McCullers, he pitched out of trouble thanks in part to some excellent defensive support in Game 3, but who knows if those outcomes are repeatable. Hinch may be looking to get nine outs from him and no more.
On the L.A. side, Darvish was awful in Game 3 thanks in large part to an uncharacteristically flat slider. Maybe if he has an egregiously bad throw day, Roberts will go in another direction, but you don't move away from a pitcher like Darvish because of one disastrous start. Roberts will no doubt be keeping a sharp eye on Darvish's stuff and command early on. If it's not there, an aggressive hook even by the standards of Roberts could be in order. Again, there's no tomorrow after this one.
The overall edge?
Keuchel at home plus another dose of Verlander plus a piggyback in a potential Game 7 may give Houston the edge. It's a terrifically close call, though, which is exactly how you'd want it with four down and (maybe) three to go.
