Major League Baseball set another strikeout rate record in 2019 -- hitters struck out in 23.0 percent of their plate appearances -- and it is no coincidence the rise in strikeouts has been accompanied by a decline in pitches in the zone. Last season only 47.3 percent of all pitches were in the strike zone, essentially tied for the lowest rate since pitch tracking began in 2008. Pitches out of the zone can get chases and empty swings, hence the rise in strikeouts.
Last week we examined three pitchers who excel at getting hitters to chase out of the zone. This week we're going to flip the script and focus on three players who handle those pitches out of the strike zone. Their wheelhouse extends outside the plate, below the knees, and above the letters. They are three of the game's best bad ball hitters.
As good as he is, I fear Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado will go down as underrated historically because of Coors Field, similar to Larry Walker. Arenado's underlying skills are outstanding. He consistently combines lower than league average strikeout rates (14.0 percent in 2019) with very good hard-hit rates (42.5 percent in 2019). Lots of contact and lots of hard-hit balls plays anywhere. Then there's the all-world defense and durability (averaged 157 games per season from 2015-19). What a stud.
Offensively, Arenado's most special attribute might be his ability to do damage on pitches out of the strike zone. His innate ability to get the fat part of the bat on the ball extends out of the zone, and allows him to do things like this:
Statcast measured that pitch at a little more than five inches off the plate inside, yet Arenado was able to pull his hands in and yank a 95.1 mph fastball out to left field. Most players who swing at that pitch would be lucky to foul it off, or maybe shatter their bat and roll a little dribbler to third base. Arenado went yard. Incredible.
"I try to react to certain pitches," Arenado told David Laurila of FanGraphs last March. "The inside pitch is a reaction pitch. At the same time, I do anticipate a ball being in a certain area, so that I can get my best swing off."
Last season 48 batters put at least 100 balls in play on pitches out of the strike zone. Arenado had the third highest batting average (.273) and the second highest slugging percentage (.444). The league averages were .158 and .223, respectively. He did that while missing with 35.1 percent of his swings, comfortably below the 42.3 league average.
Arenado gets some help from Coors Field, no doubt, but it's wrong to think his greatness is solely a product of his ballpark. His ability to square up pretty much anything -- in any location -- is special. Being able to make hard contact on pitches out of the zone is a skill that plays anywhere, and few do it as well as Arenado.
One of the most underrated hitters in the game, truly. Don't believe me? Here is Corey Dickerson's OPS+ by year since becoming a full-time big leaguer in 2014: 141, 118, 106, 118, 118, 131. The Marlins outfielder is a career .286/.328/.504 (119 OPS+) hitter in nearly 3,000 career plate appearances. Injuries and defense have been an issue at times, but the man can flat out hit.
Dickerson is arguably the game's best bad ball hitter. He swung at 47.2 percent of pitches outside the strike zone from 2017-19, the highest rate in baseball, yet his 73.4 percent contact rate on pitches out of the zone was a top 30 mark in the game and well above the 60.1 percent league average. Dickerson does things like this on the regular:
Quality two-strike changeup down and out of the zone, and Dickerson just goes down and gets it. Splits the outfielders the other way for an extra-base hit. Dickerson can do more than go down to golf a ball into the gap too. He'll turn around an elevated fastball and take you deep:
You can not -- and would not -- teach anyone to hit like Dickerson. It can't be done. He was born with the ability to do damage on pitches out of the strike zone. It's a gift from the baseball gods no one should try to replicate.
Last season Dickerson had the highest batting average (.295) and the highest slugging percentage (.476) on pitches outside the zone. The league averages were .158 and .223, respectively. Since Statcast launched in 2015, Dickerson has the ninth highest batting average and fourth highest slugging percentage on pitches out of the zone. Hitting bad balls is what he does.
In a perfect world Dickerson would be a little more disciplined at the plate. He rarely walks (career 5.8 percent walk rate) and it limits his on-base ability. Finding a way to marry his bad ball hitting ability with a few more walks would be swell. Then again, this is who Dickerson is. Ask him to take more walks and you're asking him to be something he's not, and what he is is really good.
On a star-studded Astros team, Yuli Gurriel can easily get lost in the shuffle. You're living the good life when someone who is maybe your fifth or sixth best hitter puts up a .298/.343/.541 batting line like Gurriel last season. (For the record, Gurriel's 126 OPS+ was tied with Michael Brantley for fifth best among Houston's qualified hitters last year.)
Gurriel's track record as a bad ball hitter dates back to his days as a star in the Cuban National Series. Baseball America's John Manuel wrote about Gurriel's "unconventional approach" way back in 2006, when Gurriel was only 22 and still 10 years away from defecting. Fast forward to present day and he's still doing things like this:
I mean, what? No righty hitter recorded a hit on a pitch that was further down or further inside last season. Gurriel has the third lowest strikeout rate (10.7 percent) and one of the 40 lowest swing-and-miss rates (7.4 percent) in baseball since joining the Astros in 2016. His ability to get the bat on the ball is elite, and it allows him to hit pitches like the one in the video.
Last season Gurriel hit .251 and slugged .421 on pitches out of the strike zone. Again, the league averages were .158 and .223, respectively. Over the last two seasons his .261 batting average on pitches out of the zone is the second highest in baseball. His .391 slugging percentage is third best. Since his debut, Gurriel has been among the game's best bad ball hitters.
Of course, the giant elephant in the room is Houston's sign-stealing scandal. SignStealingScandal.com shows only four Astros heard more garbage can bangs when they were at the plate in 2017, so Gurriel was an active participant. How much did it help him, exactly? We'll never know, but we do know the bangs happened and Gurriel can no longer receive the benefit of the doubt.
That said, Gurriel's exploits as a bad ball hitter date back to his time in Cuba, and we can still marvel at his ability to get to pitches out of the strike zone. Other Astros hitters took part in the sign-stealing scandal and they weren't as productive on pitches out of the zone as Gurriel. He's a freak and I mean that as a compliment.
