Game 6 of the National League Championship Series takes place in Philadelphia Monday night with the Phillies just one win away from back-to-back pennants. They are 6-0 at home this postseason after going 49-32 there in the regular season. In order to qualify for their first World Series since 2001, the Diamondbacks need to win there twice in a row.
It's a tall order and it's one, I believe, that will require taking some chances. Namely, some chances they haven't been taking so far this series: Stealing some bases.
This isn't a foreign concept to these Diamondbacks. At least it hadn't been. They were 166 for 192 in stolen base attempts in the regular season, ranking second in the majors in steals and in success rate (86%, trailing only the Mets at 89%, though the Mets attempted 59 fewer steals). Basically, it could've been argued the Diamondbacks were the best at aggressively picking their spots to steal bases.
So far in the NLCS, the Phillies are 6 for 7 in stolen bases while the D-backs are 1 for 1.
It isn't as if they haven't had any chances, either. Let's just take Corbin Carroll. He was 54 for 59 in stolen bases this season, one of the biggest threats in baseball once he's on. After going 2 for 2 in three games against the Dodgers, he hasn't attempted a stolen base here in five NLCS games.
Let's isolate Carroll to illustrate just how reluctant the D-backs have been to run this series. He led off Game 1 with a single and spent the rest of the inning on first. That was 14 pitches without attempting to steal. He reached on an error to lead off Game 2 and spent 10 more pitches at first before the inning ended. He walked to lead off the bottom of the first in Game 5 and spent six pitches at first before a Ketel Marte grounder advanced him to second. In the third inning, he singled and stayed at first for six more pitches until the inning ended.
That was 36 pitches with absolutely nothing in front of him where Carroll never broke for second.
And, again, the team that had the second-most steals in the regular season is just 1 for 1 in five games here. This seems like a game plan.
It must be that the Phillies are this amazing at controlling the running game, right?
They are good, certainly. Ten teams allowed fewer steals in the regular season, though, than the 104 stolen against the Phillies. The league average caught stealing percentage is 20% and the Phillies caught 21% (10 teams were better). If we isolate JT Realmuto, since he's catching every game in the playoffs, opposing teams went 81 for 104 (22% CS) against him. Again, he's good, but not absurdly so.
One pitcher where it does matter is Zack Wheeler and he threw Games 1 and 5. He's very quick to home, holds runners on well, varies his times and is fastball heavy. Runners only attempted seven steals against him all season and were thrown out four times.
But Aaron Nola, the Game 2 starter who gets the ball again in Game 6? Opposing stealers were 21 of 26 (19% CS) against him this season. Braves superstar Ronald Acuña took second against him in Game 3 of the NLDS.
I understand why the Diamondbacks have been cautious so far, to an extent. The Phillies are good at throwing out attempted basestealers and with hitters like Ketel Marte and Gabriel Moreno (the way he's been swinging the bat) coming to the plate, it feels like a huge risk to make outs in front of them.
The D-backs are also clearly the inferior team in this matchup and, especially in raucous Citizens Bank Park, should be pulling out all stops in order to put as much pressure on the Phillies as possible. It sure seems like turning one of baseball's best base-stealing threats loose would qualify.
Stealing bases was one of Arizona's biggest strengths in the regular season. The Phillies simply being pretty good at preventing the stolen base isn't a good enough reason to totally abandon the approach in the most important series of the year.
