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All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook
🔥 The Hot Ticket
Pirates at Cubs, 8:05 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
- Key Trend: The under is 11-4 in the Cubs' last 15 games.
- The Pick: Under 7 (-115)
I hope you're ready for baseball bets, because you will see a lot of them in this newsletter for the next couple of months. With both the NBA and NHL (we're hockey sharps now, remember) postseasons ending, there aren't many other options on the board. At least, not until I figure out how to bet the WNBA.
I haven't dipped my toes in the MLB waters much this year, so it could take us a while to get hot, but the good news is tonight, we have an old faithful to soften the blow. It will be a cool evening in Chicago, with the winds blowing in at 15 to 20 mph from left at Wrigley Field. That's an old-fashioned formula for a low-scoring affair on Chicago's north side, and I anticipate we'll see that tonight.
It does not hurt my confidence that Marcus Stroman is starting for the Cubs. While so many things have gone wrong for Chicago this season, Stroman is a bright spots. He enters the evening with an ERA of 2.42, and while he may not miss as many bats as you'd like, he's been an artist at using all parts of the strike zone and keeping hitters off-balance. With tonight's weather conditions, the fact he allows contact isn't as big a deal because the wind will swallow up anything hit into the air.
Finally, neither of the two lineups in this matchup has been overpowering this year. Pittsburgh ranks 13th in MLB in wRC+ and 13th in wOBA. The Cubs rank 17th and 15th, respectively.
Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: There's a lot of disagreement on this game. While the Projection Model is on one side of the moneyline, three SportsLine experts have staked positions on the other side.
💰 More MLB picks
Rockies at Braves, 7:20 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Kyle Freeland Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-107) -- Don't fear how low this number is. Kyle Freeland's strikeout rate of 15.7% this season is 30% worse than the league average for MLB starters. He does not miss bats often, yet he's figured out a way to survive pitching for the Rockies in Coors Field for years. And, oddly enough, he's better pitching at Coors than away from it.
Freeland's strikeout rate at home in eight starts this season is 20.5%. Not great, but respectable. On the road, it's 9.5%. He's only struck out 13 hitters in six road starts and finished four of those six starts with only one strikeout or fewer. Tonight he's facing an Atlanta offense that doesn't strike out a lot and obliterates lefties. It's a lineup full of hitters Freeland hasn't had much success against.
Tigers at Twins, 7:10 p.m. | TV: MLB.TV
The Pick: Javier Baez U 0.5 Hits (+139) -- I try not to make a habit of making bets based on individual pitcher-versus-hitter matchups, but I will occasionally make an exception. This is one. Detroit's Javy Baez has faced Minnesota starter Sonny Gray 22 times in his career. He is 1-for-21 with 12 strikeouts. Believe me when I tell you that Baez isn't happy to see Gray tonight.
Of course, Baez will likely get chances against the Minnesota bullpen, but I've factored that into the play thanks to the plus odds we're getting. Baez isn't exactly an outstanding hitter to begin with. He's slashing .228/.267/.320 this season, and sells out on every swing. Strong winds blowing in from left in Minnesota tonight (Baez's pull side) could help deaden the possible contact he does make.
🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: Interested in a Thursday night WNBA parlay that pays 6-to-1?
