After three consecutive victories, the Milwaukee Bucks aim to close out the Orlando Magic in Game 5 on Wednesday afternoon. The Magic stunned the Bucks in Game 1, and Steve Clifford's team will look to avoid elimination with another spirited performance in this matchup. Injury-wise, Aaron Gordon (hamstring), Melvin Frazier Jr. (back) and Vic Law (Achilles) are listed as questionable for the Magic, with Jonathan Isaac (knee), Michael Carter-Williams (foot) and Mo Bamba (post-COVID) ruled out.
Tip-off is at 4 p.m. ET in Orlando. William Hill lists the Bucks as 14-point favorites, up slightly from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 227 in the latest Bucks vs. Magic odds from William Hill. Before you make any Magic vs. Bucks picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 59-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. It's also 7-2 on top-rated picks since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Magic vs. Bucks. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Bucks vs. Magic:
- Bucks vs. Magic spread: Bucks -14
- Bucks vs. Magic over-under: 227 points
- Bucks vs. Magic money line: Bucks -1300, Magic +800
- Milwaukee: The Bucks are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
- Orlando: The Magic are 3-7 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Bucks can cover
The Bucks deploy the best defense in the NBA this season, and their strength on that end of the floor has been evident in this series. Though Orlando got off to a strong start in scoring 122 points in Game 1, Milwaukee has clamped down in the last three games, allowing just 0.99 points per possession. That clip is the best in the NBA Playoffs over that small sample and, for the season, the Bucks led the league in points allowed per possession, shooting efficiency allowed and defensive rebounding.
On the offensive end, Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the game's best, averaging 31.3 points and 15.8 rebounds per game in the series, and Milwaukee has other top-end options in Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe and Brook Lopez. As a team, the Bucks enter Wednesday's matchup averaging 115.8 points per game in the postseason.
Why the Magic can cover
Orlando is at a talent disadvantage, both in the series and for Game 5. With that said, the Magic have been effective at leveling the playing field by taking advantage of some of their own strengths. Nikola Vucevic has been tremendous in the series, averaging 29.5 points and 10.0 rebounds per game, and his ability to spread the floor as a shooter from the center position is crucial to attack the Bucks. Orlando is also adept at avoiding turnovers, giving the ball away on only 12.9 percent of possessions during the regular season.
Defensively, Orlando has been solid in this series, limiting the Bucks to only 1.11 points per possession. That isn't an elite figure, but Milwaukee's offense is usually hyper-efficient and the Magic have forced turnovers on 16.3 percent of possessions. At this stage, that is the best defensive turnover rate in the NBA Playoffs, and it could continue in Game 5 to give Orlando some fuel for their transition offense.
How to make Magic vs. Bucks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, with Antetokounmpo and Evan Fournier projected to fall short of their season-long scoring averages. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Bucks vs. Magic? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Magic vs. Bucks spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
