Paul George and the Los Angeles Clippers take on Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks in the first round of the 2020 NBA Playoffs on Tuesday. The teams have alternated wins through the first four games, with Dallas most recently the victor on a Doncic buzzer beater. Dallas was without star big man Kristaps Porzingis (knee) for that win on Sunday, and the 7'3" sharpshooter has been ruled out for Tuesday's action as well.
Tip-off for this one is set for 9:00 p.m ET from the AdventHealth Arena in Orlando. William Hill lists Los Angeles as the 8.5-point favorite, while the over-under for total points is 236.5 in the latest Mavericks vs Clippers odds. Before making any Clippers vs. Mavericks picks, see the NBA predictions from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it's already returned over $4,700 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks this season. It entered the week on a blistering 59-33 run on top-rated NBA spread picks, returning almost $2,300 on those picks alone. It's also 7-2 on top-rated picks since the NBA's restart in July. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Clippers. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the NBA odds from William Hill and trends for Clippers vs. Mavericks:
- Mavericks vs. Clippers spread: Clippers -8.5
- Mavericks vs. Clippers over-under: 236.5 points
- Mavericks vs. Clippers money line: Clippers -400, Mavericks +320
- DAL: The Mavericks have covered just four times in the bubble, but two have come against the Clippers
- LAC: The Clippers are 5-2 ATS against Dallas this season
Why the Clippers can cover
The model is well aware that Porzingis' absence is crucial for Dallas' chance of success. Per cleaningtheglass.com, the Mavs have been 3.6 points worse per 100 possessions without Porzingis on the court, which should come as no surprise given his immense value as an offensive floor stretcher and a rim protector on the defensive end. Porzingis was playing at a high level in the three games before the injury, knocking down 3-pointers at a 53 percent clip and putting up 34 points and 13 rebounds in his most recent game.
The Mavs were able to get by without Porzingis in Game 5 thanks to hot shooting from beyond the arc and dominant work on the glass, but it is going to take Doncic and several role players continuing to sustain that elite level of play to keep things close against one of the best teams in the NBA. If the red-hot Trey Burke and Seth Curry aren't able to produce in the way they have over the past week, Dallas' offense could become stagnant quickly without other proven options beyond Tim Hardaway Jr. and Doncic.
Why the Mavericks can cover
The model has also considered that Doncic has elevated his game to another level in his first taste of playoff action. He's coming off of an unbelievable 43 point, 17 rebound, 13 assist performance in which he also hit the game-winner to keep Dallas' playoff hopes alive even with Porzingis sidelined, and Doncic did all that while dealing with a balky ankle. He has not been bothered in the least by the defense of Leonard and George, as he's shot 50 percent when defended by those two. The Mavs' 1.36 points per possession when one of those two is defending Doncic is way up from their season average.
Doncic's incredible play has kept the Mavs in every game thus far, as L.A.'s largest margin of victory is eight points. He seems to elevate his game with every big moment he's faced with, and another clutch performance could allow Dallas to easily cover the seven-point spread on Tuesday.
How to make Clippers vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total with the simulations projecting 237 total points. The model also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Clippers vs. Mavericks? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Mavericks vs. Clippers spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up over $4,700 on its top-rated NBA picks this season, and find out.
