Jayson Tatum
USATSI

The New York Knicks will play to avoid elimination from the 2021 NBA Playoffs on Wednesday. The Knicks host the Atlanta Hawks in Game 5 of a best-of-seven series, with New York trailing 3-1. New York's only victory in the series came in Game 2 at home, with Atlanta winning back-to-back games at home. Julius Randle and Derrick Rose lead the Knicks, with Trae Young at the forefront for the Hawks. 

Tip-off is at 7:30 p.m. ET in New York. William Hill Sportsbook lists the Knicks as 1.5-point home favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 208 in the latest Hawks vs. Knicks odds. Before you make any Knicks vs. Hawks picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned over $9,100 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. The model is up almost $900 on its top-rated picks this season and entered the second full week of the 2021 NBA Playoffs on a stunning 100-66 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread dating back to last season. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Hawks vs. Knicks in the NBA Playoffs 2021. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several NBA betting lines for Knicks vs. Hawks:

  • Hawks vs. Knicks spread: Knicks -1.5
  • Hawks vs. Knicks over-under: 208 points
  • Hawks vs. Knicks money line: Knicks -120, Hawks +100
  • ATL: The Hawks are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
  • NY: The Knicks are 4-6 against the spread in the last 10 games
Featured Game | New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks

Why the Hawks can cover

Young has been the best player in the series and that projects to continue. Atlanta's point guard is averaging 27.5 points and 10.0 assists per game in the series, and the Knicks haven't shown any level of ability to slow down his offensive creation. That also shows up in the on-off metrics, with the Hawks enjoying real success whenever Young is on the floor, and Nate McMillan pivoted to a stagger in Atlanta to ensure that Young and/or Bogdan Bogdanovic are on the floor for the vast majority of the game. 

From there, the Hawks have been tremendous defensively in the series. New York is scoring only 1.03 points per possession in the first four games. One cause of that inefficiency is that the Knicks rank dead-last in the NBA Playoffs in effective field goal percentage (46.0 percent), with Randle shooting just 27.4 percent from the floor in four contests.

Why the Knicks can cover

New York's defense remains tremendous. The Knicks finished No. 4 in the regular season in defensive efficiency, giving up 107.8 points per 100 possessions, and they've done plenty to thwart Atlanta's offense. New York leads the playoffs in defensive rebound rate, grabbing 82.5 percent of available rebounds after forcing a miss by the Hawks, and the Knicks also lead the postseason in free throw prevention. In the regular season, the Knicks were No. 1 in the NBA in both field goal percentage allowed (44.0 percent) and 3-point percentage allowed (33.7 percent), and they can take solace in that effectiveness. 

On the offensive side, New York is unquestionably struggling, but there should be regression to the mean coming for Randle. From there, Rose has been a revelation, averaging 22.8 points per game in the series. New York is also well above-average in ball security, turning the ball over on only 11.5 percent of its offensive possessions against the Hawks.

How to make Knicks vs. Hawks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, projecting 211 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Hawks vs. Knicks? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.