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The Milwaukee Bucks visit State Farm Arena to face the Atlanta Hawks in a nationally televised matchup on Monday. The Bucks are 27-18 to begin the 2021-22 season after winning the 2021 NBA championship. The Hawks are 17-25 after five straight losses. Bogdan Bogdanovic (knee) and Clint Capela (ankle) are out for Atlanta, while Jrue Holiday (ankle) and Brook Lopez (back) are out for Milwaukee.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Milwaukee as a 5.5-point road favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 6 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the Over-Under, is 232.5 in the latest Bucks vs. Hawks odds. Before you make any NBA predictions with the Bucks vs. Hawks match-up, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks over the past three-plus seasons. The model entered Week 14 of the 2021-22 NBA season on a stunning 56-30 roll on all top-rated NBA picks, returning over $2,200. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Bucks vs. Hawks, and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Hawks vs. Bucks:

  • Bucks vs. Hawks spread: Bucks -5.5
  • Bucks vs. Hawks over-under: 232.5 points
  • Bucks vs. Hawks money line: Bucks -200, Hawks +170
  • MIL: The Bucks are 12-11 against the spread in road games
  • ATL: The Hawks are 7-12 against the spread in home games
Featured Game | Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Why the Bucks can cover

Milwaukee's offense is very good statistically, and this is also a juicy matchup for the Bucks on that end of the court. The Bucks are scoring 110.2 points per 100 possessions this season, ranking in the top 10 of the NBA, and Milwaukee is prolific from three-point range. The Bucks are averaging 14.3 three-pointers per game, No. 3 in the NBA, and Milwaukee is making 36.1 percent of three-point attempts. Milwaukee also generates more than 21 free throw attempts per game, and Atlanta's defense is porous. 

The Hawks are No. 28 in the NBA in defensive efficiency, giving up nearly 1.14 points per possession. Atlanta is No. 28 in field goal percentage allowed, No. 29 in assists allowed, No. 29 in steals and No. 25 in blocked shots this season. The Hawks are struggling recently as well, giving up 121.6 points per 100 possessions during a five-game losing streak.

Why the Hawks can cover

The Hawks are tremendous on the offensive end of the floor. Atlanta is No. 2 in the NBA in offensive efficiency, scoring 112.5 points per 100 possessions this season. The Hawks lead the league in ball security, committing a turnover on only 12.5 percent of offensive possessions, and Atlanta is making 46.0 percent of field-goal attempts. The Hawks are in the top five in 3-point shooting, making 37.2 percent of long-range offerings, and Atlanta is above-average in free-throw attempts (21.4 per game) and free-throw accuracy (80.0 percent). 

Though the Hawks struggle on defense overall, Atlanta is No. 3 in the NBA in the free-throw attempts allowed, giving up only 18.8 per game, and the Hawks are also very good on defensive glass. Atlanta secures 74.2 percent of available rebounds after forcing a missed shot, and opponents are averaging only 11.9 second-chance points per game.

How to make Hawks vs. Bucks picks

SportsLine's model is leaning under on the total, projecting 224 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Bucks vs. Hawks? And which side of the spread hits over 50 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.