The Denver Nuggets will look to protect home court and take a 2-0 advantage in the 2023 Western Conference finals when they host the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 2 on Thursday. Denver led by as many as 21 points in Game 1 before holding on for a six-point victory. The Lakers had a furious rally down the stretch but still only led for 26 seconds in the game. The Nuggets are 7-0 at home during the 2023 NBA playoffs, while the Lakers are 2-5 in road postseason games.
Ball Arena in Denver will host the proceedings with a tip-off at 8:30 p.m. ET. The latest Lakers vs. Nuggets odds from Caesars Sportsbook have Denver as 5.5-point favorites, with the over/under at 226. Before making any Nuggets vs. Lakers picks, you'll want to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from the proven computer model at SportsLine.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model entered the conference finals of the 2023 NBA playoffs a stunning 72-38 on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Lakers vs. Nuggets and just locked in its picks and NBA playoff predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Nuggets vs. Lakers:
- Lakers vs. Nuggets spread: Nuggets -5.5
- Lakers vs. Nuggets over/under: 226 points
- Lakers vs. Nuggets money line: Nuggets -215, Lakers +178
- LAL: The Lakers are 22-25-1 against the spread in road games
- DEN: The Nuggets are 30-17-1 against the spread in home games
- Lakers vs. Nuggets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Lakers can cover
The Lakers had a great deal of offensive success in Game 1, including an off-the-charts effort in the second half that nearly resulted in a victory. However, Los Angeles is particularly strong on the defensive end of the floor. The Lakers led the NBA in free throw prevention (20.8 attempts allowed per game) during the regular season while finishing No. 2 in 3-point defense (34.4%). After a midseason roster overhaul, Los Angeles was a top-five defensive team, yielding 111.3 points per 100 possessions following the All-Star break, and the Lakers are generating impressive playoff numbers.
The Lakers are giving up fewer than 1.09 points per possession in playoff action, with Davis operating as arguably the best overall defender in the NBA. Los Angeles is holding playoff opponents to 43.1% shooting from the field and 46.9 points in the paint per game. The Lakers have also continued their dominance in free throw prevention, with opponents producing only 16.7 attempts per game at the charity stripe during the postseason. See which team to back here.
Why the Nuggets can cover
Two-time MVP Nikola Jokic is getting much acclaim for his 30-point triple-double in Game 1, but he received lots of support which is an encouraging sign for Denver going forward. A total of six Nuggets scored in double-figures, led by Jokic's 34 and Jamal Murray's 31. Michael Porter Jr. has taken his game to another level in the playoffs as he logged his fourth double-double of the postseason with 15 points and 10 rebounds. That came after Porter Jr. had just three double-doubles during the 82-game regular season.
The Lakers ranked second in defensive rebounds in the regular season, but Denver transformed LA's strength on the glass into a weakness in Game 1. The Nuggets collected 15 offensive boards, compared to just five for the Lakers, which came one game after LA gave up 20 offensive boards to the Warriors in Game 6 of the second round. Also, some regression to the mean for the Lakers can be expected in terms of turnovers in Game 2. Los Angeles committed just seven turnovers which allowed it to get back into Game 1, but the team averaged 14.1 turnovers per game in the regular season. See which team to back here.
How to make Nuggets vs. Lakers picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting the teams to combine for 229 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Game 2 of Lakers vs. Nuggets in the NBA Western Conference finals 2023, and which side of the spread hits well over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has has gone 72-38 on its top-rated NBA picks, and find out.
