The Charlotte Hornets host the Dallas Mavericks for an early afternoon matchup on Sunday. Charlotte defeated Dallas on the road on Friday to improve to 24-51 this season, while Dallas is in the midst of the playoff race at 36-38. LaMelo Ball (ankle) and Cody Martin (knee) are out for the Hornets, with Kelly Oubre Jr. (shoulder) listed as questionable and Terry Rozier (foot) listed as doubtful. Tim Hardaway Jr. (illness) is listed as probable for the Mavericks.
Tip-off is at 1 p.m. ET in Charlotte. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Mavericks as 11-point road favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 231.5 in the latest Mavericks vs. Hornets odds. Before you make any Hornets vs. Mavericks picks, be sure to check out the NBA predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times and has returned well over $10,000 in profit for $100 players on its top-rated NBA picks over the past four-plus seasons. The model enters Week 23 of the 2022-23 NBA season on a stunning 69-36 roll on all top-rated NBA picks this season, returning nearly $2,900. Anyone following it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Mavericks vs. Hornets and just locked in its picks and NBA predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NBA lines and trends for Hornets vs. Mavericks:
- Mavericks vs. Hornets spread: Mavs -11
- Mavericks vs. Hornets over/under: 231.5 points
- Mavericks vs. Hornets money line: Mavs -600, Hornets +430
- DAL: The Mavericks are 16-20 against the spread in road games
- CHA: The Hornets are 14-22 against the spread in home games
- Mavericks vs. Hornets picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why the Mavericks can cover
Dallas has a significant talent advantage, beginning with the standout duo of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Doncic generated 34 points, 10 rebounds, and eight assists against Charlotte on Friday, and he is averaging 32.9 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.2 assists per game this season. Irving is also capable of an offensive explosion at any moment, and Dallas rates as a top-eight offensive team in the league in scoring nearly 1.16 points per possession. The Mavericks are prolific from 3-point range, making 15.0 triples per game, and Dallas has strong shooting efficiency with 37.0% from 3-point range and 57.2% inside the arc.
Dallas also generates almost 26 free throw attempts per game, a top-five mark in the NBA, and Charlotte has defensive shortcomings. The Hornets are giving up 114.6 points per 100 possessions this season, and Charlotte secures only 71.4% of available defensive rebounds while yielding more than 24 free throw attempts per game.
Why the Hornets can cover
Charlotte was the better team on Friday in this matchup, making 39% of 3-point attempts and generating 32 assists with only eight turnovers. PJ Washington led the way with 28 points and six rebounds, with Gordon Hayward adding 25 points and nine assists. On defense, Charlotte held Dallas to just 9-36 from 3-point range, and the Hornets are No. 2 in the NBA in fast break points allowed (11.9 per game) this season. Charlotte is above-average in havoc creation, forcing 14.7 turnovers per game, and that includes a top-eight mark with 7.9 steals per game.
Dallas struggles on the offensive glass, securing only 23.1% of available rebounds, and Charlotte's offense also brings intriguing metrics. The Hornets are in the top 10 of the NBA in fast break points, points in the paint, and second-chance points per game. Charlotte is also in the top 10 of the league in turnover avoidance (13.8 per game), and Dallas rates as a bottom-10 defense in the league in giving up 115.8 points per 100 possessions.
How to make Hornets vs. Mavericks picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 233 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who Mavericks vs. Hornets? And which side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.