Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat will square off against Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers in a battle of Eastern Conference contenders on Wednesday evening. The Heat will be without Goran Dragic (groin), James Johnson (personal) and Justise Winslow (back), while the 76ers are operating at full health. Tip-off is at 7 p.m. ET at Wells Fargo Center.
Sportsbooks list the 76ers as seven-point home favorites, up slightly from the opener, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 213 in the Heat vs. Sixers odds. Before you make any Sixers vs. Heat picks or NBA predictions, see what SportsLine's advanced computer model has to say.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and last season it returned a whopping $4,280 on its top-rated NBA spread and money line picks. It's already returned almost $800 in profit on all its top-rated NBA picks during the 2019-20 season and entered Week 8 on a blistering 16-7 run on all top-rated NBA against the spread picks. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Sixers vs. Heat. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA betting lines and trends for Heat vs. 76ers.
- Sixers vs. Heat spread: 76ers -7
- Sixers vs. Heat over-under: 213 points
- Sixers vs. Heat money line: Philadelphia -302, Miami +245
- MIA: Is 16-6 against the spread when playing with at least one day off
- PHI: 14-0 at home straight-up this season, but 7-7 against the spread in those games
Why the 76ers can cover
The model is aware that Philadelphia is unbeaten at home and generally dominant within the walls of the Wells Fargo Center. The Sixers have elite numbers, including a +12.0 net rating, when playing at home and, when matched up against a relatively ordinary Heat team when they are away from Miami, the advantage swings to Philadelphia.
In terms of on-court match-ups, the Sixers have arguably the NBA's best defense when playing at full strength, using immense length and coordination to deter opponents all over the court and especially at the rim. Philadelphia ranks second in the NBA in defensive rebounding and the Sixers are able to close possessions and prevent opponents from generating extra opportunities.
Why the Heat can cover
The model has also considered that the Heat haven't been quite as potent away from home this season but, in the same breath, Miami is a talented team that is playing quite well overall. Butler has been spectacular in his new home, averaging 21.2 points, 6.8 assists and 6.4 rebounds per game, and he is flanked by a potential NBA All-Star in big man Bam Adebayo.
The Heat are one of only a few teams in the NBA to post top-12 performances on both offense and defense, with legitimately elite numbers in getting to the free-throw line offensively and creating efficient shot attempts. Those strengths match up well against a stifling Philadelphia defense, with Miami holding the clear advantage whenever the Sixers have the ball.
How to make Sixers vs. Heat picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total, and it also says one side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations.
So who wins Heat vs. Sixers? And which side of the spread hits in over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Heat vs. 76ers spread you need to jump on Wednesday, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
