bijan-robinson-1400-us.jpg
USATSI

Texas running back Bijan Robinson, the 2022 Doak Walker award winner (given to the nation's top RB) is generating plenty of draft buzz as the big night approaches. Earlier this week NBC Sports reported the Falcons, who own the eighth overall pick, were betting favorites to draft Robinson. NFL Network also reported a couple NFC teams don't want the Eagles, who own the 10th pick, to draft Robinson. Robinson said on ESPN's "NFL Live" on Wednesday that if he could play with any QB of his choice, it would be Jalen Hurts.

For those reasons and more, we shouldn't be surprised to see Robinson crack the top 10, despite zero RBs going in the first round last year for just the third time in the common draft era (since 1967). 

Scouts and metrics adore him

Whoever you ask, most have Robinson as a top five or 10 prospect. He's the fifth-best prospect according to CBS Sports (full scouting report HERE).

Scouts Inc., a scouting agency that partners with ESPN, gives Robinson a 96 grade, tied with Bryce Young for the highest grade of any player in this class, and the highest by a running back since Saquon Barkley, who went second overall in 2018. 

Robinson can be the first running back drafted in the top 20 since Barkley, and there's reason to believe he will go even higher. That's because Robinson is one of nine RBs with a 96+ Scouts Inc. grade since 2005. All but one of those running backs was a top-seven pick (Rashard Mendenhall). 

Highest Scouts Inc Draft Grades Among RB Since 2005
Overall Pick

2006 Reggie Bush

99

2nd

2008 Darren McFadden

98

4th

2007 Adrian Peterson

98

7th

2005 Ronnie Brown

98

2nd

2018 Saquon Barkley

97

2nd

2012 Trent Richardson

97

3rd

2005 Cadillac Williams

97

5th

2023 Bijan Robinson

96

?

2008 Rashard Mendenhall

96

23rd

Robinson earned the highest overall draft score (96) of any prospect this year according to NFL Next Gen Stats. He had a production score of 99, the highest by a RB in at least the last two decades. NFL Next Gen Stats' production score is based on their overall college production, which takes into account box score data (career yards per rush etc. ...) and advanced data (missed tackles forced per carry etc. ...).  

Why is everyone so high on Robinson?

In case it's not abundantly clear, Robinson is one of the best RB prospects in a while, and he has all the high grades and scores for good reason. He had an extremely productive college career, performed well at the combine and projects as a three-down back in the NFL with size, speed, power and athleticism to excel as a rusher, pass catcher and blocker. 

His raw talent was on display in his final season at Texas. He forced 104 missed tackles, the first player to crack 100 in a season in the PFF tracking era (since 2014). 

That translated to a lot of productivity. He had 1,580 rushing yards on 6.1 yards per carry in 2022. He also had 19 receptions for 314 yards, leading all FBS running backs in yards per reception (16.5) last season, while showing off nice hands in the passing game. 

Add it all up and he was a special playmaker. There have been 121 instances since 2017 of a player with 200+ carries and 15+ catches in a season. Robinson's 2022 season is the only one to produce both 6.0-plus yards per rush and at least 16.0 yards per reception. 

The last first-round pick RB to hit both marks (6.0 yards per rush and 16.0 yards per reception) in their final college season was Bo Jackson, the top pick in 1986. And even Jackson only had four catches that season. 

Robinson backed up the numbers at the combine with a 4.46 40-yard dash at 215 pounds, to go with a 37-inch vertical and 10-foot-4 inch broad jump. 

You can see why any NFL team would be terrified of an Eagles offense that includes Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert AND Robinson behind the best offensive line in football.

Counter to argument that drafting RBs high is a bad idea

So you shouldn't be shocked at all to see Robinson crack the top 10. But is he worth it? That's a bit more complicated.

Of course, most would argue drafting running backs in the top 10 is a bad idea, which is where things could be heading with Robinson. Jerry Jones, who held court earlier this week, mentioned Ezekiel Elliott, the 2016 fourth overall pick, was drafted too high.

Jones would be far from the only person who subscribes to the popular opinion that drafting a running back early is questionable. It's been well-documented that it's easy to find RB value later in the draft, running backs have a shorter shelf life and often don't deliver on big, second contracts in the NFL. 

There are exceptions to any rule, though. The 2022 draft proved there was value to be had at the top, even by older running backs.

  • The top eight RBs in terms of rush yards in 2022 were all drafted in the first or second round. Six of those eight were at least 25 years old
  • Four of the top six RBs in terms of fantasy points last season were on their second contract. The two who weren't, Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley, got franchise tagged earlier this offseason
Most Rush Yards by RB Last Season
Draft RoundAge

Josh Jacobs

1,653

1st

24

Derrick Henry

1,538

2nd

28

Nick Chubb

1,525

2nd

27

Saquon Barkley

1,312

1st

25

Miles Sanders

1,269

2nd

25

Dalvin Cook

1,173

2nd

27

Christian McCaffrey

1,139

1st

26

Travis Etienne

1,125

1st

23

The five running backs drafted in the top 10 since the disastrous Trent Richardson pick (third overall in 2012) have provided good return on investment.

Last five RBs drafted in top 10

  • 2018 Saquon Barkley: three career 1,000-yard rushing seasons
  • 2017 Leonard Fournette: 448 scrimmage yards and 4 TD in 2020 playoff run with Buccaneers
  • 2017 Christian McCaffrey: three seasons with 1,800 scrimmage yards
  • 2016 Ezekiel Elliott: led NFL in rushing yards per game in each of first three seasons
  • 2015 Todd Gurley: led NFL in touchdowns in 2017 and 2018 (MVP runner-up in 2017)

I'm not sure if this evidence would sway the naysayers who yells "get off my lawn!" to anyone who would consider drafting a running back in the first round or top 10. 

What I do know is this. Running backs as good as Robinson get drafted in the top 10. The last few top-10 running backs have mostly been valuable assets. And a majority of the top RBs in 2022 were drafted high. Whether Robinson is worthy of a top-10 pick, you be the judge. I say there's at least a case to be made and you shouldn't be surprised at all when he comes off the board that early.