Sustainable success in the NFL comes one of two ways: With a franchise quarterback who can carry a team on his back or with an all-time great defense made up of players who are young and cheap. But even that shelf life is limited before that unit is picked apart by the free agency vultures.
So long-term success comes mainly with a top-tier -- dare we say elite? -- quarterback.
That's why the move by the Los Angeles Rams to trade up to the top spot in this year's NFL Draft, with an eye on either North Dakota State quarterback Carson Wentz or Cal's Jared Goff, isn't as crazy as it seems.
The Rams sent their first-round pick this year, 15th overall, their first next year, two second-round picks this year, theirs and one they got from the Eagles, and a third-round pick in 2016 to the Tennessee Titans for the first overall pick. The Titans also threw in two picks this year, a fourth-round choice and one in the sixth round.
It might seem like a ransom for that No. 1 pick, and it's a good move for the Titans, who already have what they think is a franchise passer in Marcus Mariota. But ask yourselves this question: Why have the Packers, Patriots and Steelers been mentioned as possible Super Bowl teams every year the past decade, no matter what? It's the guys taking the snaps.
Tom Brady has won four rings and the Patriots are the favorites in Vegas heading into 2016. The Steelers and Packers are both legitimate contenders again because of Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers, who have three rings between them.
The Super Bowl-champion Broncos have issues now. Why? Quarterback. They still have that dominant defense, but the quarterback uncertainty makes them look anything like a team that will repeat. PS: Their all-time great defense was picked apart in free agency.
That's why this makes sense for the Rams. They have some nice pieces in place. They have a dominant runner in Todd Gurley, who they drafted in the first round last year. They have some stars on defense in end Robert Quinn and tackle Aaron Donald.
What the Rams don't have is a legitimate NFL starter at quarterback. The Rams were 29th in total offense last year, and 32nd in passing. Somehow they went 7-9 in a league where passing is king and teams threw it more than they ever have last season.
That speaks to the talent of the defense in a physical division with two playoff teams in Arizona and Seattle.
Even if you or me or any Twitter draft expert might not think Goff or Wentz are worth the move, the Rams obviously do.
We know coach Jeff Fisher loves to run the football. I once debated him about the running game at a league meeting, and I asked him what a running team can do when they drive it 50 yards on the ground, then end up with a holding penalty.
"Run it harder," Fisher said.
That's his approach. It won't change. But if he can run it, then drive the ball with play-action passes down the field, maybe it can work. To be honest, I think he needs an overhaul to his style of play. And if you make a deal like this to get a franchise passer, it has to become his team.
Like Brady. Like Rodgers. Like Roethlisberger.
Whoever the Rams draft, whether it's Goff or Wentz, that player faces unreal scrutiny. The deal up makes it that way. The new city, the glitz and glamour of Los Angeles, will only enhance the pressure to be great.
B-movies don't win Oscars in Hollywood.
B-quarterbacks won't have sustainable success there either.
I asked some league personnel people around the league about their reactions to the trade Thursday, and some of the reactions were what I expected. Several of those I asked said it was a move that general manager Les Snead and Fisher had to make. They are 27-39-1 in their four seasons together. There was some talk they could be in trouble after last season. They haven't won more than seven games in a season with the Rams.
"They are getting fired if they don't make it, and they will get fired if Wentz sucks," one personnel director said. "They had to go all-in."
Another simply said they bought themselves four more years.
If you look at the quarterbacks drafted first overall since the AFL-NFL merger, there are a lot of stars on the list, but also some busts. The Rams actually took Sam Bradford first overall in 2010, and that didn't work out in large part because of injuries. He's now the Eagles quarterback.
Here are the other quarterbacks who have gone first overall since the merger: Terry Bradshaw, Jim Plunkett, Steve Bartkowski, John Elway, Vinny Testaverde, Troy Aikman, Jeff George, Drew Bledsoe, Peyton Manning, Tim Couch, Mike Vick, David Carr, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Alex Smith, JaMarcus Russell, Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Jameis Winston.
There are 15 Super Bowl victories in that group and four who would be considered busts (George, Carr, Russell and Couch). Yes, guys like Smith and Testaverde played some of their best football with teams that didn't draft them, but you get the point.
The risk is worth it.
If Wentz or Goff becomes Aikman or either of the Mannings or Elway or one of the greats, the deal is a damn good one for the Rams -- and could be great for both, depending on how the Titans do with their haul.
If the passer they pick is a bust, then it will be the Robert Griffin III deal all over again -- only this time, the Rams will be on the bad side of a mega-trade. When Griffin flopped in Washington, after the Redskins gave the Rams a haul to move up, the Rams could gloat.
In three years, it might be the Titans gloating.
Or, if the quarterback is the real deal, Snead and Fisher might be the ones smirking as they look at their reflection in their Lombardi Trophy.
It's a passers and pass-rushers league. The Rams have their pass rushers. Now they might have their franchise passer too.
