The 2024 NFL Draft boasts potentially great quarterback options. Fans have already seen how the presence of those caliber players impact the draft with Minnesota acquiring a second pick in the first round, presumably to trade up for a quarterback.
In the event that the Cardinals or Chargers, who hold selections No. 4 and 5 overall respectively, trade out, CBS Sports looks back at previous deals to hypothesize what it might take to facilitate a move up to land a quarterback. The point differentials were determined by the trade value chart arranged by SportsLine's R.J. White.
Over the past 13 drafts, 35 quarterbacks have been taken in the first round, and there has been an average of one trade up each year to take a quarterback in the top half of the round.
*Note: This is a revisionist view of each trade as it takes into account where future picks actually ended up being rather than the terms at the time of the trade. For example, a team may trade a future first-round pick and it ends up being the No. 15 overall selection. I am taking the figure for No. 15 overall and not the hypothetical value of a future first-round pick at the time of the trade.
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2023
Carolina trades up with Chicago at No. 1 overall
Bears receive: No. 9 overall in 2023 (Traded), No. 61 overall in 2023 (Traded), No. 1 overall in 2024, 2025 second-round pick
Panthers receive: No. 1 overall in 2023 (QB Bryce Young)
Points differential: Bears +579.96 (Rough equivalent of No. 4 overall)
No. 48 overall was used in projecting the future second-round pick because it falls in the middle of the draft order.
2021
San Francisco leaps up for third QB off the board
49ers receive: No. 3 overall in 2021 (QB Trey Lance)
Dolphins receive: No. 12 overall in 2021 (Traded), No. 29 overall in 2022 (Traded), No. 102 overall in 2022 (LB Channing Tindall), No. 30 overall in 2023
Points differential: Dolphins +62.91 (Rough equivalent of No. 71 overall)
Bears move up for Justin Fields
Bears receive: No. 11 overall in 2021 (QB Justin Fields)
Giants receive: No. 20 overall in 2021 (WR Kadarius Toney), No. 164 overall in 2021 (Traded), No. 7 overall in 2022 (OT Evan Neal), No. 112 overall in 2022 (TE Daniel Bellinger)
Points differential: Giants +357.28 (Rough equivalent of No. 11 overall)
2018
Jets move up three spots to land Sam Darnold
Jets receive: No. 3 overall in 2018 (QB Sam Darnold)
Colts receive: No. 6 overall in 2018 (OG Quenton Nelson), No. 37 overall in 2018 (OT Braden Smith), No. 49 overall in 2018, No. 34 overall in 2019 (CB Rock Ya-Sin)
Point differential: Colts +226.91 (Rough equivalent of No. 21 overall)
Bills deal three picks in top 60, select Josh Allen
Bills receive: No. 7 overall in 2018 (QB Josh Allen), No. 255 overall in 2018 (WR Austin Proehl)
Buccaneers receive: No. 12 overall in 2018 (DT Vita Vea), No. 53 overall in 2018 (CB M.J. Stewart), No. 56 overall in 2018 (Traded)
Point differential: Buccaneers +74.43 (Rough equivalent of No. 64 overall)
Cardinals pick up franchise hopeful Josh Rosen
Cardinals receive: No. 10 overall in 2018 (QB Josh Rosen)
Raiders receive: No. 15 overall in 2018 (OT Kolton Miller), No. 79 overall in 2018 (Traded), No. 152 overall in 2018 (Traded)
Point differential: Cardinals +19.84 (Rough equivalent of No. 117 overall)
2017
Bears make shocking move for Mitchell Trubisky
Bears receive: No. 2 overall in 2017 (QB Mitchell Trubisky)
49ers receive: No. 3 overall in 2017 (DL Solomon Thomas), No. 67 overall in 2017 (Traded), No. 111 overall in 2017 (Traded), No. 70 overall in 2018 (LB Fred Warner)
Pick No. 67 was used on RB Alvin Kamara, but the rights were traded to the Saints.
Point differential: 49ers +37.73 (Rough equivalent of No. 92 overall)
Chiefs land generational talent in Patrick Mahomes
Chiefs receive: No. 10 overall in 2017 (QB Patrick Mahomes)
Bills receive: No. 27 overall in 2017 (CB Tre'Davious White), No. 91 overall in 2017 (Traded), No. 22 overall in 2018 (Traded)
The No. 91 overall selection in 2017 was used to select safety John Johnson III, but Buffalo traded rights to the Rams.
Point differential: Bills +79.02 (Rough equivalent of No. 61 overall)
Browns bypass chance at Deshaun Watson
Texans receive: No. 12 overall (QB Deshaun Watson)
Browns receive: No. 25 overall in 2017 (S Jabrill Peppers), No. 4 overall in 2018 (CB Denzel Ward)
Cleveland took quarterback Baker Mayfield the following year. The Browns did select CB Denzel Ward and S Jabrill Peppers, who was used in the Odell Beckham Jr. trade, with the picks acquired from Houston, but Watson's value easily supersedes those additions.
Point differential: Browns +447.14 (Rough equivalent of No. 7 overall)
2016
Rams get aggressive by trading up for Jared Goff
Rams receive: No. 1 overall in 2016 (QB Jared Goff), No. 133 overall in 2016 (Traded), No. 177 overall in 2016 (TE Temarrick Hemingway)
Titans receive: No. 15 overall in 2016 (Traded), No. 43 overall in 2016 (DT Austin Johnson), No. 45 overall in 2016 (RB Derrick Henry), No. 76 overall in 2016 (Traded), No. 5 overall in 2017 (WR Corey Davis), No. 100 overall in 2017 (TE Jonnu Smith)
Tennessee's pick from Los Angeles was No. 5 overall the following year. The Titans used the picks in return to essentially remodel their offense: OT Jack Conklin, RB Derrick Henry, WR Corey Davis and TE Jonnu Smith. Conklin was the result of the team trading back up.
Point differential: Titans +216.02 (Rough equivalent of No. 22 overall)
Browns punt on chance to fill quarterback need
Eagles receive: No. 2 overall in 2016 (QB Carson Wentz), No. 139 overall in 2017 (Traded)
Browns receive: No. 8 overall in 2016 (Traded), No. 77 overall in 2016 (Traded), No. 100 overall in 2016 (Traded), No. 12 overall in 2017 (Traded), No. 64 overall in 2018 (Traded)
Cleveland traded back a second time and took WR Corey Coleman. The return on Wentz was pretty abysmal.
Point differential: Browns +115.86 (Rough equivalent of No. 46 overall)
2012
Washington mortgages future for RG3
Washington receives: No. 2 overall in 2012 (QB Robert Griffin III)
St. Louis Rams receive: No. 6 overall in 2012 (Traded), No. 39 overall in 2012 (CB Janoris Jenkins), No. 22 overall in 2013 (Traded), No. 2 overall in 2014 (OT Greg Robinson)
St. Louis landed the No. 2 overall pick in the following draft, but used it on OT Greg Robinson. In 2013, they traded back a second time and selected DL Michael Brockers and later added CB Janoris Jenkins with a pick received from Washington.
Point differential: Rams +832 (Rough equivalent of Nos. 2 overall and 76 overall)
Based on the trade value chart, the point differential surrendered by Washington was the equivalent to No. 2 overall and No. 76 overall. At the end of the day, it might have been worth it if Griffin had built on his Rookie of the Year campaign and had a prosperous career.
2011
Jaguars move on from David Garrard, select Blaine Gabbert
Jaguars receive: No. 10 overall in 2011 (QB Blaine Gabbert)
Washington receives: No. 16 overall in 2011 (EDGE Ryan Kerrigan), No. 49 overall in 2011 (Traded)
Washington traded back in 2011 and selected DL Ryan Kerrigan, who has been one of the most productive edge rushers in the NFL over the past 10 years.
Point differential: Washington +12.95 (Rough equivalent of No. 138 overall)
In 12 of the 13 trades, the team trading the rights to the quarterback received greater compensation than the pick equivalency. On average, the team trading the higher pick received a +232.49 point differential, which is roughly the equivalent of the No. 20 overall selection. Fans have already seen the premium that Carolina had to pay to move up eight spots to No. 1 overall a year ago.
If the quarterback goes on to be successful, it was all worth it. Kansas City loses zero sleep by getting the "worst" end of the deal, according to the trade value chart, but still getting Mahomes. Hindsight is 20/20 in some cases when future picks are traded. It is essentially taking out a loan on the team's success. Some loans default, while others are paid off early. In four of the 13 trades, the team moving up to take a quarterback sent a top-5 pick back in the following draft.
What does it mean for this year's trade market?
To explore some hypothetical situations, let's use Minnesota's No. 11 overall selection to construct some potential trade scenarios.
If future assets are included, then the team trading up has to surrender more because of the unknown. An NFL team is not going to take a chance on looking bad for acquiring a future first-round pick that could become No. 32 overall when the trade value chart indicates they should have gotten No. 16 overall equivalency in return. By inflating the price, there is a larger window for it to look as though they won the deal.
Patriots receive: No. 11 overall, No. 23 overall, 2025 first-round pick, 2025 second-round pick
Vikings receive: No. 3 overall, 2025 third-round pick
Point differential: Patriots +234.87
*Based on picking 16th in each future round
Cardinals receive: No. 11 overall, No. 23 overall, 2025 first-round pick, No. 230 overall
Vikings receive: No. 4 overall, No. 104 overall
Points differential: Cardinals +229.96
*Based on picking 16th in each future round
Giants receive: No. 11 overall, No. 23 overall, 2025 first-round pick, No. 230 overall
Vikings receive: No. 5 overall, No. 70 overall, 2025 fourth-round pick
Points differential: Giants +230.26
*Based on picking 16th in each future round
The 2024 NFL Draft will take place from April 25-27 in Detroit. More draft coverage can be found at CBSSports.com, including the weekly updated draft order, mock drafts and a regularly available look at the eligible prospects.
