Two NFC West rivals kick off Week 15 of the 2022 NFL regular season, as the Seattle Seahawks host the San Francisco 49ers. The Seahawks lost to the 49ers by 20 points earlier this season, and have lost three of their past four matchups. If the season ended today, Seattle would not be in the postseason. As for the 49ers, things are trending upwards.
San Francisco has won six straight games, and can officially clinch the NFC West with a win Thursday night. Even though Kyle Shanahan is down to his third-string quarterback, it has not slowed the 49ers' progress. They didn't miss a beat going from Trey Lance to Jimmy Garoppolo, and now haven't missed a beat going from Jimmy G to Brock Purdy. This year's Mr. Irrelevant blew out Tom Brady in his first career start last week, but he's dealing with a couple of injuries heading into this matchup.
The 49ers have covered the spread in four straight games while the Seahawks have failed to cover the spread in four straight games. Below, we will break down this matchup from a gambling perspective and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch the game.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
Date: Thursday, Dec. 15 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Lumen Stadium (Seattle, WA)
Stream: Amazon Prime Video
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: 49ers -3, O/U 43
- 49ers: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (foot), DL Kevin Givens (knee), DB Tarvarius Moore (knee), DL Hassan Ridgeway (pectoral), WR Deebo Samuel (ankle, knee), CB Samuel Womack (concussion) OUT; DL Kerry Hyder (ankle), QB Brock Purdy (oblique, rib), CB Ambry Thomas (ankle) QUESTIONABLE
- Seahawks: RB DeeJay Dallas (ankle), S Ryan Neal (knee), NT Al Woods (Achilles), S Joey Blount (back), CB Tre Brown (illness) QUESTIONABLE
The San Francisco 49ers held a walkthrough Wednesday, but the team did still list quarterback Brock Purdy as a limited participant due to an oblique and rib injury. That now has him officially listed as questionable for this matchup. For what it's worth, Purdy told reporters this week that he feels good, but Kyle Shanahan noted that the team will gauge his status on Thursday before ultimately making a call if he plays or not.
In Seattle, the Seahawks did not give an injury designation to rookie running back Kenneth Walker III, signaling that he will play Thursday night against the Niners. He missed Week 14 due to an ankle injury.
This line reopened at SF -1 on Tuesday, Dec. 6. It jumped all the way up to SF -3.5 this past Sunday, but fell to SF -3 late Tuesday night.
The pick: Seahawks +3. The Seahawks have been floundering as of late, there's no doubt. But I'm tempted to jump back on the bandwagon this week. This will be Purdy's first road start in a hostile environment on a short week while he's dealing with oblique/rib injuries, and he won't have Deebo Samuel at his disposal, either. Historically, Seattle has fared well against San Francisco at home. Pete Carroll is 10-2 SU and 8-3-1 ATS at home vs. the 49ers.
Seattle's defensive effort will be virtually everything here. Keying on Christian McCaffrey is going to be important, as is limiting YAC with guys like Brandon Aiyuk. Plus, keeping pressure on Purdy and getting some hits on him wouldn't hurt, either. Offensively, Geno Smith is going to have to take care of the ball, and Kenneth Walker III needs to have a decent outing as well. "Decent" is a subjective term, as the 49ers have the No. 1 run defense in the NFL, allowing an average of 75.1 rushing yards per game.
Seattle is 6-7 ATS this year, but 2-0 as a home underdog and 4-1 when the spread is +2 to +5.
The total reopened at 41.5 on Tuesday, Dec. 6. It jumped to 43.5 this past Sunday, but fell to 43 on Wednesday afternoon.
The pick: Under 43. I love rooting for points, but I'm not itching to bet the Over here. San Francisco is 3-3 to the total on the road, and Seattle is 3-3 to the total at home. The Seahawks are actually tied in having the fifth-best record to the Over this year (8-5), but the 49ers have the No. 1 defense in the NFL. This is not a best bet, but the lean is to the Under.
Geno Smith props
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +123, Under -169)
Passing yards: 238.5 (Over +102, Under -139)
Passing attempts: 34.5 (Over -104, Under -131)
Passing completions: 20.5 (Over -129, Under -106)
Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -113, Under -121)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -151, Under +110)
Smith has thrown at least two touchdowns in seven straight games. I'll take a flier on the Over at plus money. I do not have a read on passing yards or pass attempts, but I will take the Over on completions at -129. If you think Smith's longest passing completion prop looks a bit fishy, he's actually hit a pass that's gone for at least 37 yards in each of the past two games. That being said, I lean to the Under because of this great 49ers defense. Smith has thrown at least one interception in four out of the past five games, but the -151 juice doesn't interest me.
Props to consider
Christian McCaffrey receiving yards: Over 35.5 (-123). McCaffrey is averaging 45.1 receiving yards per game with the 49ers, but has crossed this 35.5 line just once over the past three games. With Purdy banged-up, I think McCaffrey could get a couple extra touches -- and he already averages five receptions per game. I'm not opposed to taking the Over on receptions, but I like the Over on receiving yards more.
Robbie Gould made field goals: Over 1.5 (+100). I love kicking props and we hit more often than not. Gould didn't attempt a single field goal in last week's 35-7 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but I believe that's an outlier. Gould has made at least two field goals in three out of the past five games. Just two weeks ago, he went 4-for-4! At plus money, I will take it.