Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks odds: Picks from expert who's 9-2 on Seahawks games

Josh Nagel has his finger on the pulse of Pete Carroll's team and locked in a play for Week 17

The Seattle Seahawks host the division rival Arizona Cardinals in a must-win game for Russell Wilson and company. If they win and the Falcons lose to the Panthers, Seattle punches its postseason ticket. Otherwise, the Seahawks will be sitting at home.

Seattle is favored by 9.5, up 2.5 points from where the line opened. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 38.5, down 2.5 from the opener.

Before you lock in any bets, you need to see what West Coast-based handicapper Josh Nagel is picking.

Earlier this month, Nagel told SportsLine readers to back the Seahawks as five-point underdogs against the Eagles, noting that it was a rare opportunity to back Seattle as a home underdog in prime time. The result: Pete Carroll's team won outright.

Strikingly, that cash helped improved Nagel to 9-2 in his past 11 picks involving the Seahawks. Anyone who has followed his advice is up big.

Now, Nagel has studied every matchup, every angle and every injury in Cardinals-Seahawks and locked in a strong pick. You can see it over at SportsLine.

Nagel knows that the Seahawks are fresh off an impressive Christmas Eve victory at Dallas. Their defense, which had been a concern, picked off Dak Prescott twice, taking one to the house. And although quarterback Russell Wilson struggled, he threw two short touchdown passes.

Arizona, meanwhile, has dropped four of its past seven games, including its past two on the road. The Cardinals are down to third-stringer Drew Stanton at quarterback. In his career, Stanton has more interceptions (23) than touchdowns (19).

But just because the Seahawks have momentum doesn't mean they'll cover a spread that's approaching double-digits.

Seattle's run game has struggled mightily. Wilson led the team in rushing the past two weeks, yet didn't top 40 yards during that span. And the Seahawks haven't had a 100-yard receiver since Week 9.

Arizona's defense is playing well. The Cards just shut out the Giants at home and beat the Titans and Jaguars, both AFC South contenders, in the past several weeks.

Nagel thinks Cardinals-Seahawks will go under, but there's one team he knows is a very strong play to cover. He's sharing which one it is over at SportsLine.

So which side of Cardinals-Seahawks should you take? Visit SportsLine now to see what huge x-factor determines Cardinals-Seahawks, and what team is a very strong play to cover, all from the handicapper who has nailed nine of his past 11 Seahawks picks.