The Cleveland Browns opened as 4.5-point road favorites over the Carolina Panthers in the lookahead NFL odds from Caesars Sportsbook, but heavy movement now has that Week 1 matchup listed as a pick'em. Heavy movement is commonplace early in the season when there are so many unknowns, so it's important to pay attention to the NFL odds as you make your NFL survivor pool picks. The format calls for you to pick one outright winner in every week, but NFL spreads often play a major role in who the public leans on. Making Week 1 NFL knockout pool picks based on NFL lines will be a challenge because no team is favored by more than seven points this week. Before finalizing any Week 1 NFL survivor picks, see which team the red-hot SportsLine Projection Model just went all-in on.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 138-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Amazingly, it hasn't missed a top-rated pick since Week 15 last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in its Week 1 survivor pool pick. You can only see who the model is backing this week at SportsLine.

Top Week 1 NFL survivor pool predictions 

For Week 1 of the 2022 NFL season, the model is shying away from the Cincinnati Bengals, even though they are the reigning AFC champions and favored at home over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincinnati is the fourth-largest favorite of the week at Caesars Sportsbook, with the Bengals spotting the Steelers 6.5 points at home.

But even with survivor pools only relying on straight-up wins or losses, this is a tough spot simply because it's a divisional rivalry and the Steelers have historically dominated the matchup. The Bengals swept the season series last year, but Mike Tomlin is 23-8 against the Bengals all-time. Pittsburgh has players on both sides of the ball who can take over games like Najee Harris on offense and T.J. Watt on defense. Those are all reasons enough to steer clear and save the Bengals for further down the road. See which team to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL survivor pool picks 

Instead, the model is backing a team that made a quarterback change in the offseason and has had plenty of success against its Week 1 opponent. The time to pick this team is now, and you can only see the play over at SportsLine.

Which surprising team is a must-back in your Week 1 survivor pool? Visit SportsLine now to see which team carries you to victory in Week 1, all from the advanced computer model that consistently crushes the NFL, and find out.