The Green Bay Packers and Cleveland Browns will get our Christmas day doubleheader started when these two clubs meet at Lambeau Field on Saturday afternoon. The Packers are fresh off a win over the Baltimore Ravens that clinched them the NFC North title. While they have a division crown in their back pocket, they are still battling for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Meanwhile, the Browns are coming off a week where they were decimated by COVID-19, which forced their game to be rescheduled to Monday. Even with that move, the team had to face the Raiders without a number of players, including starting quarterback Baker Mayfield. But the Browns got some good news regarding Mayfield, who has been removed from the COVID-19 list and will start.
In this space, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this matchup has in store for us. We'll be taking a look at how the lines have shifted throughout the week leading into Saturday and, of course, give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
The Packers opened as a 7-point favorite in the early lookahead and did jump as high as a 9-point favorite coming out of Week 15. However, that has since come down closer to its original number, sitting at Packers -7.5 as of Thursday night.
The pick: Packers -7.5. The Browns are in a tough spot. They have been ravaged by COVID-19 and that forced their game to be moved from Saturday to Monday, giving them a short week to get everybody healthy and ready to go for this tilt. Meanwhile, the Packers are arguably the best team in the NFL at the moment and own an 11-3 ATS record, which is tied for the best mark in the NFL. Within that record is a 2-0 ATS run when given the rest advantage. As for the Browns, they've struggled to cover no matter who is under center and are under .500 on the year ATS, which includes a 1-4 ATS run in their last five games.
Key trend: Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as the home favorite.
The total has largely held firm, albeit with some slight jockeying around. It opened at 45 and jumped up to 45.5 before coming down a point to 44.5 earlier in the week. Since then, it's come back up to past its opening number and sits at 46.5 as of Saturday.
The pick: Over 46.5. The Packers have been lighting up the scoreboard over the last three weeks, averaging roughly 37 points per game over that stretch. If anything close to that, this number should go over quickly. With Myles Garrett (questionable, groin) not practicing all week, his possible absence would make life much easier for Green Bay to move up and down the field. Even if Cleveland stays where it was last week against Las Vegas and produces 14 points, that could be enough with the Packers doing most of the heavy lifting.
Key trend: Over is 4-0 in Packers last four games.
Player props to consider
Aaron Rodgers total passing yards: Over 258.5 (-115). Rodgers is averaging nearly 10 yards a game over this prop for the season and is posting 318.6 yards through the air a game over the last five weeks. On the road this season, Cleveland has been pretty generous to opposing quarterbacks, allowing 263.5 passing yards per game (tied for the third-most in the NFL).
Davante Adams total receiving yards: Over 87.5 (-105). These two props between Rodgers and Adams do correlate given Adams' massive target share. He was quiet last week against Baltimore but was previously on a three-game stretch where he was averaging 113.3 receiving yards a game. At home this season, Adams is averaging 94 receiving yards per game. With the number of looks, he'll likely get, it's tough to fade the star receiver here.
Nick Chubb total rushing attempts: Over 18.5 (-120). One of the better ways the Browns can keep Aaron Rodgers at bay is by keeping him off the field. Cleveland could do that by feeding Nick Chubb and asking him to move the ball down the field while burning clock. He's seen 20-plus carries fives times this season, including last week against the Raiders. Chubb also has a solid matchup with the Packers defense ranking 25th in the NFL against the run in DVOA.