Whatever way you want to look at it, Buffalo's 2020 season was a rousing success. Josh Allen took a seismic leap in Year 3 and solidified himself as an MVP-caliber quarterback. Meanwhile, the Bills were able to win the AFC East for the first time since 1995 and were on the doorstep of a Super Bowl LV berth after reaching the AFC Championship Game.
As Buffalo has since finished up the preseason, they'll look to continue that positive trajectory heading into the 2021 regular season where expectations are quite high. Currently, the Bills are the clear favorite to once again win the division and have a projected Over/Under win total of 11. Will they climb the mountain top again in the division? Here's what we think may go down in 2021.
(Over/Under win totals for every opponent courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook)
Need a quick betting primer on your favorite NFL team for the 2021 season? Here are links to schedule breakdowns for all 32 clubs.
Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Line: Bills -6
Opponent win total: O/U 9
Even as Ben Roethlisberger enters what may be his final season in the NFL, the Steelers will be a tough out throughout the 2021 campaign. Buffalo sees a bit of bad luck by getting Pittsburgh this early in the schedule as Big Ben will likely be his sharpest out of the gate. Still, the Bills' front seven should have no issue applying pressure on the immobile Roethlisberger and start the year off on a positive note with a win.
Prediction: Bills win 27-17
Projected record: 1-0
Week 2 at Miami Dolphins
Opponent win total: O/U 9
The first inner-divisional matchup of the year for the Bills comes with a trip to Miami. Anytime you take on the Florida heat on top of a well-coached Dolphins squad, it's a tall task. In fact, Miami finished last season winning five of its final six home matchup en route to a 10-win campaign. While the home cooking has fared the Dolphins well in the past, Allen and Co. are able to edge out a tightly contested road matchup.
Prediction: Bills win 28-24
Projected record: 2-0
Week 3 vs. Washington Football Team
Opponent win total: O/U 8
Washington has a majority of the pieces necessary to seriously contend for a playoff spot. The club is well-coached, has top-tier skill position players and studs all along the front seven. That said, what puts a low ceiling on this unit is the quarterback spot. Sure, there's always a chance Ryan Fitzpatrick has one of those magical outings against the Bills, but it's much more likely Allen outduels him at home.
Prediction: Bills win 24-17
Projected record: 3-0
Week 4 vs. Houston Texans
Opponent win total: O/U 4.5
The Houston Texans may end up being the worst team in the NFL when it's all said in done. This could be a contest where Buffalo jumps to an early lead, Houston quickly rolls over, and they cruise to a win.
Prediction: Bills win 33-13
Projected record: 4-0
Week 5 at Kansas City Chiefs
Opponent win total: O/U 12
After starting the year off perfect, dreams of an undefeated season are dashed by the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of the AFC Championship Game a season ago. While this game certainly has the potential of being a high-flying affair, it's too tall of a task to ask Allen to match Patrick Mahomes throw for throw in his own building. The firepower that K.C. has on display will simply be too much for Sean McDermott's defense on this night, but this should be a fun one to watch.
Prediction: Bills lose 35-27
Projected record: 4-1
Week 6 at Tennessee Titans
Opponent win total: O/U 9.5
For the second week in a row, points should come in bunches as the Bills head to Nashville to take on the Titans. Neither club has a pass rush that is going to strike much fear in the opposing quarterback, which could result in some big plays. In the end, Buffalo's defense does just enough on "Monday Night Football" to give Allen some breathing room to secure a win to bounce back from a prime-time loss the week prior.
Prediction: Bills win 24-21
Projected record: 5-1
Week 8 vs. Miami Dolphins
Opponent win total: O/U 9
For the Dolphins to truly threaten the Bills in the division, they'll need to take one of their two matchups over the course of the regular season. After letting one opportunity slip through the cracks earlier in the year, they drop the kitchen sink, but Buffalo is able to withstand it. Despite Tua Tagovailoa likely taking positive strides in his development in Year 2, it's unlikely he ascends to the level where he can go toe to toe with Allen at the moment. The Bills complete the season sweep and leave Miami only looking at a possible playoff route via the wild card.
Prediction: Bills win 31-28
Projected record: 6-1
Week 9 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Opponent win total: O/U 6
While the Jaguars beginning the Trevor Lawrence era is unquestionably an exciting time for the franchise, it'd be silly to expect the Clemson phenom to come out gangbusters and have his team contending with the best of them. Lawrence will surly flash his No. 1 overall pick potential in this matchup, but don't expect the Jags to string enough of those plays along to keep this one close. This may be a prime-time matchup down the road, but let's give Lawrence a few years to acclimate himself to the NFL before we predict the Jaguars keeping this competitive.
Prediction: Bills win 27-17
Projected record: 7-1
Week 10 at New York Jets
Opponent win total: O/U 6
The Jets will be a sneaky tough matchup for some of these teams in 2021. Not only is there the element of possibly being overlooked, but New York's front seven is no joke. Even with Carl Lawson going down for the year, they should still be a tough out on that side of the ball. Of course, we're not predicting an upset here, but it wouldn't be too surprising for this to be a little bit closer than expected out of the gate before Buffalo kicks it into another gear and pulls out the win.
Prediction: Bills win 24-20
Projected record: 8-1
Week 11 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Opponent win total: O/U 10
Similar to New York, Indianapolis' front seven headlined by DeForest Buckner is legit and likely will cause problems for a lot of quarterbacks throughout the league, including Allen. That unit may be able to do enough to limit Allen, which makes it a fairer fight between he and Carson Wentz. That pressure may be too much to handle for four quarters and lead to their four-game winning steak to be snapped.
Prediction: Bills lose 23-20
Projected record: 8-2
Week 12 at New Orleans Saints
Opponent win total: O/U 9.5
The Saints will naturally look different in 2021 without Drew Brees under center, but it's not inconceivable that they are still competitive in his absence. With Jameis Winston settled in as the starter, they should be over any sort of growing pains by this point in the year to make this game competitive, especially in their own building. That said, whatever rapport Winston has built up likely won't be enough to get past Buffalo here.
Prediction: Bills win 27-23
Projected record: 9-2
Week 13 vs. New England Patriots
Opponent win total: O/U 9
Buffalo's first matchup with the Patriots came pretty late in the schedule and it's fair to wonder who'll be starting for New England at quarterback. The club did bring back Cam Newton but also drafted Mac Jones in the first round. By this point in the year, odds are Belichick has already turned the keys over to the rookie and has begun the grooming process. Does that help the Patriots gut out a win during this "Monday Night Football" matchup? Probably not. With this victory, Buffalo has all but clinched another division crown.
Prediction: Buffalo wins 34-24
Projected record: 10-2
Week 14 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Opponent win total: O/U 11.5
Bills fans know Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady all too well from his days with the Patriots. For his career, Brady is 32-3 against Buffalo in the regular season and has put up some impressive numbers in the process of building that strong record. If that continues with a Bucs team that is fresh off a Super Bowl title, Buffalo may be getting some unhappy flashbacks during their trip down to Tampa.
Prediction: Bills lose 30-20
Projected record: 10-3
Week 15 vs. Carolina Panthers
Opponent win total: O/U 7.5
Another week, another former AFC East quarterback to prepare for. The Jets moved on from Sam Darnold earlier this offseason to make way for No. 2 overall pick Zach Wilson and traded Darnold to the Panthers where he'll serve as the starter. Over Darnold's three-year career in New York, he was 2-3 against the Bills and threw more interceptions than touchdowns. While he's in a situation now where he has more talent to work with, the results will likely be similar to what Darnold's grown accustomed to against Buffalo.
Prediction: Bills win 27-23
Projected record: 11-3
Week 16 at New England Patriots
Opponent win total: O/U 9
Buffalo should have the division locked up at this point, but will likely still be fighting for playoff positioning. That means they'll be playing out the string, which is bad news for the Patriots, who are likely still feeling things out with Jones. Again, these two teams are on different levels right now so Buffalo should be looked at as the clear favorite.
Prediction: Buffalo wins 31-21
Projected record: 12-3
Week 17 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Opponent win total: O/U 7.5
Even with Julio Jones now in Tennessee, the Falcons should still have an offense that can give opposing defenses fits, especially if rookie tight end Kyle Pitts is able to come out of the gate firing. This could turn into a massive display of offense, but Allen and Co. should be able to pull out the win when it's all said and done.
Prediction: Bills win 33-28
Projected record: 13-3
Week 18 vs. New York Jets
Opponent win total: O/U 6
New York will likely find itself at the bottom of the AFC East and have the busses warming up by the time it shows up to the stadium. Meanwhile, if the No. 1 seed is on the line, you best believe Buffalo will be playing its starters all the way through. When you simply look at the potential motivation (or lack thereof) on both sides, it's easy to predict a winner here.
Prediction: Bills win 24-17
Projected record: 14-3