The top-seeded Kansas City Chiefs will make their 2021 NFL Playoffs debut on Sunday when they host the surging Cleveland Browns in an AFC Divisional Round contest at Arrowhead Stadium. Kickoff is set for 3:05 p.m. ET. The defending Super Bowl champions rolled to a 14-2 regular season, with one of the losses coming in Week 17 against the Los Angeles Chargers as Kansas City rested most of its key starters. The Chiefs ran away with the AFC West and earned a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the NFL Playoffs 2021.

The Browns (12-5) defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers last weekend for their first postseason win since 1994. Kansas City is a 10-point favorite and the over-under for total points scored is 57 in the latest Chiefs vs. Browns odds at William Hill Sportsbook. Before making any Browns vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you see what SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein has to say.

A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. In the 2019 season, he went 58-39 on against-the-spread NFL picks, giving his followers a profit of more than $1,500. He also heads into this weekend on a 19-9 run with his NFL selections for SportsLine members.

What's more, Hartstein has had a keen eye for the trajectories of these clubs and has compiled an eye-popping 16-3 record on NFL picks against-the-spread picks involving Cleveland or Kansas City over the past three seasons. Anyone who has consistently followed him is way up.

Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Chiefs vs. Browns. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and trends for Chiefs vs. Browns:

  • Chiefs vs. Browns point spread: Chiefs -10
  • Chiefs vs. Browns over-under total: 57 points
  • Chiefs vs. Browns money line: Chiefs -500, Browns +400
  • CLE: Underdog has covered the spread in five of the last seven meetings in this series
  • KC: Chiefs have covered four of their last five postseason home games
Latest Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -10

Why the Chiefs can cover

Kansas City finished with the top overall offense in the NFL at 415.8 yards per game and fourth in scoring offense at 29.6 points per contest. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes, the Super Bowl MVP and candidate for this year's regular-season MVP accolade, has thrown for 4,740 yards and 38 touchdowns against six interceptions.

Last year, the Chiefs memorably overcame double-digit deficits against both the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans to capture the AFC crown and earn a berth in the Super Bowl.

Why the Browns can cover

The Chiefs will need to be wary of an upstart Browns club that is coming off one of the franchise's biggest wins in decades and whose players are seeing their self-belief system grow on a weekly basis. Last week, the Browns jumped on an errant snap and scored a touchdown on the first play from scrimmage. They also capitalized on numerous mistakes from Pittsburgh on their way to an eye-opening 28-0 lead in the first quarter.

Even with first-year coach Kevin Stefanski unable to attend because of COVID, the Browns played with the swagger of a team that had something to prove and turned back Pittsburgh's second-half rally. Quarterback Baker Mayfield was efficient, going 21-of-34 for 263 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions.

How to make Chiefs vs. Browns picks

Hartstein has analyzed this matchup, and while he's leaning over on the total, he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing it here

So who wins Browns vs. Chiefs in the NFL Playoffs 2021? And what critical X-factor makes one side of the spread a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Browns vs. Chiefs spread you need to jump on Sunday, all from the expert who's 16-3 on picks involving Cleveland or Kansas City, and find out.