The AFC South champion Jacksonville Jaguars will have revenge on their minds when they visit the Kansas City Chiefs on Saturday in the Divisional Round of the 2023 NFL Playoffs. Jacksonville (10-8) suffered a 27-17 loss at Kansas City in Week 10 of the regular season, extending its losing streak in the all-time series to six games. The Jaguars have gone 7-1 since the setback, including a 31-30 win over the Los Angeles Chargers during Super Wild Card Weekend in which they trailed 27-0 in the second quarter. Kansas City (14-3) cruised to its seventh consecutive AFC West title and finished the season with a five-game winning streak.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 4:30 p.m. ET. Kansas City is a nine-point favorite in the latest Chiefs vs. Jaguars odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under for total points scored is 52.5. Before locking in any Jaguars vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you check out the latest NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven projection model.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the Divisional Round of the 2023 NFL playoffs on an incredible 162-113 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. It is also on a 16-6 roll on top-rated NFL picks since Week 7 of this season.

The model ranked in the Top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, the model has set its sights on Chiefs vs. Jaguars on Saturday and just locked in its picks and NFL playoff predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are the NFL odds and betting lines for Jaguars vs. Chiefs:

  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars spread: Kansas City -9
  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars over/under: 52.5 points 
  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars money line: Kansas City -550, Jacksonville +400
  • KC: Chiefs are 1-7-1 against the spread in their last nine home games
  • JAX: Jaguars are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with Kansas City 
  • Chiefs vs. Jaguars picks: See picks here
Featured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Why the Chiefs can cover

Patrick Mahomes has settled for nothing less than the AFC Championship Game since becoming Kansas City's starting quarterback in 2018. The 27-year-old has guided the team to a 5-0 record in the first two rounds of the NFL playoffs, averaging 327.2 passing yards while throwing 14 touchdowns and just one interception. Mahomes has the most TD tosses in the postseason by anyone in their 20s (28) and the highest passer rating in the playoffs (105.7) in NFL history.

Mahomes led the league with 41 scoring passes this season, connecting for touchdowns with 11 different players. Tight end Travis Kelce was the most frequent recipient, making a career-high 12 TD catches to rank second in the league, while running back Jerick McKinnon had nine, including one in each of his last six games. See which team to pick here.

Why the Jaguars can cover

Trevor Lawrence vastly improved from his 2021 rookie season, finishing ninth in the NFL with 4,113 passing yards and tied for eighth with 25 touchdown tosses. The 23-year-old's playoff debut did not get off to a strong start, as he threw a pick on four of the Jaguars' first six possessions. But he redeemed himself in a big way, throwing a TD pass the next four times the team had the football before orchestrating a drive that led to the game-winning field goal as time expired.

Lawrence benefited from an active offseason that saw Jacksonville add numerous weapons to its offensive arsenal. The team signed Christian Kirk to a four-year contract and the 26-year-old delivered in his first campaign, recording career-highs of 84 receptions, 1,108 yards and eight touchdowns. Fellow wideout Zay Jones (82 catches, 823 yards) and tight end Evan Engram (73, 766) also set personal bests in their first year with the Jaguars, with the former hauling in five TD passes and the latter four. See which team to pick here.

How to make Chiefs vs. Jaguars picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Under the point total, calling for 50 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model's picks at SportsLine.

So who wins Jaguars vs. Chiefs in the 2023 NFL playoffs? And which side of the spread hits over 50% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Chiefs vs. Jaguars spread to be all over on Saturday, all from the advanced model that is up well over $7,000 on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.