The record-setting Saints look for more history when they host the division-rival Falcons in the last of three Thanksgiving Day NFL games. It's an 8:20 p.m. ET kickoff from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. New Orleans just became the fourth team in NFL history to score at least 45 points in three straight games, as the Saints destroyed the Eagles 48-7 last week. Atlanta won't be intimidated, though, after taking the Saints to overtime in their Week 3 meeting, losing 43-37. Bookmakers list New Orleans as a 12.5-point favorite. The over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 60.5 in the latest Falcons vs. Saints odds. Before you make any Falcons vs. Saints picks, you need to see what SportsLine's Projection Model has to say.
The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. SportsLine's proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and '17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018, entering Week 12 on a blistering 12-0 run. For the season, it is now 26-9 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 74-43. And when it comes to all straight-up picks, the model is 105-53 this season, again ranking in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Anybody who has been following it is way, way up.
Now the model has dialed in on Falcons vs. Saints (streaming on fuboTV). We can tell you it's leaning over, but it has also generated a strong against-the-spread pick that's cashing in nearly 60 percent of simulations. You can only see it at SportsLine.
The model has factored in that the Saints are not only humming on offense, but also cracking down defensively. New Orleans has held six of its 10 opponents to 20 points or fewer. The offensive line has allowed nine sacks all season, letting quarterback Drew Brees find stars like wide receiver Michael Thomas and running back Alvin Kamara with ease. In the past two games, Brees led the Saints to 99 points while completing 80 percent of his throws for seven touchdowns without an interception.
But just because the Saints have been money doesn't mean they'll cover a double-digit spread against a desperate division rival that typically plays them close.
The Falcons are averaging 26.3 points and will be highly confident Thursday after they scored 37 in the Week 3 matchup. Quarterback Matt Ryan threw for 374 yards and a season-high five touchdowns in that game. Wide receiver Julio Jones has posted five straight 100-yard games overall and found the end zone three straight weeks.
Atlanta isn't giving up on its goal of becoming the first team to play a Super Bowl in its home stadium. The Falcons know they most likely have to win out, so you can expect a herculean effort with their season on the line.
Who wins Falcons vs. Saints on Thanksgiving? And which side covers nearly 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.
