It is a David vs. Goliath matchup if you've ever seen one. The winless New York Jets are set to roll into Arrowhead Stadium to face the reigning Super Bowl champion Chiefs for a Sunday afternoon showdown in Week 8. While nobody in their right mind is going to pound the desk while predicting the Jets will pull off the greatest upset of the 2020 season, there may be some looking to gain nearly 20 points and hoping New York can keep it close similar to their game last week against Buffalo. So while the game itself is not pegged to be a highly competitive affair, there are certainly some interesting betting angles worth watching.
In this space, we'll be covering just that. Below, you'll be able to find the latest spread, total, and a number of prop bets that catch our eye as this Sunday matchup approaches. All NFL odds via William Hill Sportsbook
How to watch
Date: Sunday, Nov. 1 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
TV: CBS | Stream: CBS All Access
Follow: CBS Sports App
Jets at Chiefs (-19.5)
This line opened at Chiefs -21, giving the defending champs a three-touchdown mountain to overcome out of the game. The public seemed to like the points in that spot as this number was quickly pulled down to 19.5 by Monday morning and held firm throughout the week. It did tick up a half-point to Chiefs -20 on Friday but has since fallen back down that half-point.
The pick: Chiefs -19.5. New York simply doesn't have the horses to keep this thing close. Sam Darnold likely will be working with a hobbled receiving unit that isn't even in the same stratosphere are Patrick Mahomes' weapons consisting of Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and old friend Le'Veon Bell. Even if K.C. gets out to an early lead, the running game has shown this season that they can put up points in a hurry. While the 3-10 ATS record isn't strong for 20-point spreads over the last 40 seasons, the Jets have the worst road cover percentage (31%) since 2017. All signs point to this being a 27-7 game, which gets K.C. to cover.
Over/Under 49
The total has climbed a full point after opening at 48. It jockeyed around 48, 49, and 48.5 on Wednesday before settling in at 48.5 for the large part of the week, but did move back up a half-point to 49 by Friday.
The pick: Under 49. This number feels too high. New York shouldn't be expected to go into double-digits, especially with a number of skill position players injured. With that in mind, the Chiefs likely won't be dropping the 30+ points needed to hit the Over here. They have the capability, but they'll likely lean on the running game in the second half to kill the clock and leave unscathed with a W. The Under is 8-6 for both the Jets and Chiefs combined this season.
Best prop bets
Patrick Mahomes total passing completions: Under 24.5 (+100). I'm looking at the Chiefs getting out to an early lead and then leaning on the running game, which should limit the number of pass attempts by Mahomes here. K.C. is more than capable of getting a win on Sunday without Mahomes lighting the world on fire with his arm. The Super Bowl LIV MVP has also hit the Under on this total in four straight games heading into this matchup.
Tyreek Hill total receiving yards: Over 64.5 (-115). The Jets have allowed five receptions of 40+ yards coming into Week 8, which is the third-most in the NFL. Adam Gase's club has also allowed 22 receptions of 20+ yards, which ranks in the bottom half of the league as well. That sets Hill up for a tasty matchup where he should be able to beat New York on a couple of deep shots. If K.C. wants to get up early, a couple of daggers to Hill could be the recipe.
Le'Veon Bell anytime touchdown (+100): This is riding the narrative pretty hard, but you have to assume if the Chiefs are up, Andy Reid will give Bell a chance to score against his former team. You'd be kicking yourself if you didn't put a little action on this side story.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire total rushing yards: Under 65.5 (-115). While I think Edwards-Helaire will certainly get a lot of work in this game, I'm fading him to get over this total because of the presence of Bell. I fear he could stab into his carries, especially against his former club, as he continues to get situated inside the Chiefs offense. The rookie back has also only gone Over this total twice this season.
Sam Darnold total passing touchdowns: Under 0.5 (+150). Sam Darnold has a number of his weapons injured and has failed to throw a touchdown in his previous two games. He now faces a Chiefs defense that is tied for the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns this season and ranks as the fifth-most efficient secondary in the league, according to Football Outsiders.
