With one trade, the Colts have gone from a playoff hopeful to a bona fide contender in the AFC. The acquisition of former Falcons quarterback and 2016 league MVP Matt Ryan for a third-round pick on Monday was all it took. In Indianapolis, Ryan, who will turn 37 in May, will look to take his name off of the list of the greatest quarterbacks to never win a Super Bowl, a list that includes Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Dan Fouts and Philip Rivers.
The Colts, who missed the playoffs after going 9-8 in 2021, have significantly better odds at making the playoffs after acquiring Ryan. Indianapolis' win total was projected at nine games prior to the trade with a 45.4% chance of making the playoffs and a 25.6% chance at winning the AFC South, according to CBS Sports data scientist Stephen Oh. With Ryan, the Colts' win total jumped to 11 games, their playoff odds skyrocketed to 82.2% and their odds to win the South jumped to 56.9%. The Colts' odds at winning the AFC moved from 2.4% to 11.3%, while their odds at winning the Super Bowl improved from less than 1% to 5.3%.
Indianapolis is in better hands with Ryan at quarterback than Carson Wentz, according to Oh. Before Wentz was dealt to Washington, the Colts were projected to win 10.2 games next season. Indianapolis' odds at making the playoffs stood at 71%, while they had 46.8% odds at winning the division. The Colts' odds at winning the AFC with Wentz were 8.2%, while their odds at winning Super Bowl LVII were 4%.
Ryan will be the fourth Colts starting quarterback following Andrew Luck's retirement before the start of the 2019 season. Jacoby Brissett went 7-8 as the Colts' starter in 2019, as Indianapolis missed the playoffs following a 5-2 start. With Rivers under center, Indianapolis went 11-5 during the 2020 regular season before falling in Buffalo in the wild card round. During Wentz's only season in Indianapolis, the Colts started 9-6 before dropping their final two games to fall out of playoff contention.
Arguably the best player in Falcons history, Ryan won 120 regular-season games over his 14 years with the Falcons. In 2016, Ryan nearly led Atlanta to the franchise's first Super Bowl title before Tom Brady engineered the greatest comeback in Super Bowl history. While the Falcons only had one more playoff appearance during his final five years with the team, Ryan continued to pile up big numbers. He led the NFL in completions in 2019 and in 2020. In 2020, Ryan also led the NFL in attempts while hitting the 4,000-yard passing mark for the 10th straight year. Last season, Ryan led the Falcons to seven wins while completing 67% of his throws, his highest mark since 2018.
Ryan will be flanked in Indianapolis by running back Jonathan Taylor, whose 332 carries for 1,811 yards and 18 touchdowns led the NFL. Along with having one of the NFL's top offensive lines, Ryan will also have receiver Michael Pittman Jr., who last season caught 88 passes for 1,082 yards and six touchdowns. The Colts also boast a defense that last season finished ninth in the league in scoring.
