The Bills possess the league's No. 1 scoring defense, but the Chiefs are also in the top 10 on that side of the ball. Nevertheless, Sunday's Chiefs vs. Bills game in the 2022 NFL playoffs is projected to be a high-scoring affair, with an over-under of 54.5 in the latest NFL odds at Caesars Sportsbook. The latest divisional round NFL spreads show the Chiefs as 1.5-point favorites as they seek their fourth straight AFC Championship Game appearance.
Will the offenses take the spotlight again and overpower two of the strongest defenses over the second half of the season? Which side of the divisional round NFL Vegas odds should you lean towards when making your Chiefs vs. Bills and Rams vs. Buccaneers picks? All of the divisional round NFL lines are listed below and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best divisional round NFL picks now.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters the divisional round of the 2021 NFL playoffs on an incredible 137-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Amazingly, it hasn't missed a top-rated pick since Week 14 of the regular season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Top divisional round NFL predictions
One of the model's strongest divisional round picks is that the Buffalo Bills cover the spread against the Chiefs. The Chiefs went just 1-4 against the spread versus teams that allowed fewer than 21 points per game as opposed to 8-5 against the number versus everyone else. No team is stouter defensively than Buffalo, which led the NFL with 17.0 points allowed per game.
On the other side of the ball, the Chiefs will have their hands full with Josh Allen. The Bills quarterback may be an even bigger factor running the ball than throwing, as Kansas City has been shredded on the ground by quarterbacks. They've allowed the most rushing TDs and the seventh-most rushing yards to opposing QBs, while Allen had the third-most rushing yards and rushing TDs among QBs this season.
Allen (407 yards) ranks seventh in the NFL in rushing over the last six games, and one of the players he trails is teammate Devin Singletary (456 yards). The Bills are projected to cover in over 50 percent of simulations, with the Under (54) hitting nearly 60 percent of the time.
How to make divisional round NFL picks
The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the divisional round NFL schedule, and it's also calling for plenty of value if you back another team against the spread. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.
So which NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which team is a must-back? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,500 since its inception, and find out.
Divisional round NFL odds, spreads, lines, schedule, bracket
Sunday, Jan. 23
Bills at Chiefs (-1.5, 54)