We have an AFC East showdown on deck to wrap up Week 13 in the NFL as the New England Patriots will visit the Buffalo Bills tonight for "Monday Night Football." This game has the ability to change the balance of power in the division for the moment with this being the first head-to-head of the season between these clubs, who are separated by just a game. New England is riding a six-game winning streak into this matchup that has them currently sitting in first place. However, a well-rested Buffalo team is coming into this game after a blowout win over the Saints on Thanksgiving. Needless to say, this matchup should be a doozy and weather could be a factor.
Below, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this matchup has in store for us. We'll be taking a look at how the lines have moved throughout the week leading into Monday night and, of course, give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watch
The Bills opened as a three-point favorite in this divisional head-to-head and that spread grew as high as Bills -3.5. However, coming out of Week 12 and New England's win over Tennessee, that advantage dipped as low as Bills -2.5 before jumping back up to -3 on Sunday.
The pick: Patriots +3. New England has not only gone 6-0 straight up over this winning streak, but they are 6-0 ATS as well. They've been putting away teams in the second half, outscoring opponents 63-0 in the second half of their previous four games. While Buffalo will be one of the tougher obstacles during this streak, their defense is playing at a level where they should be able to limit what Josh Allen and Co. do offensively. The Patriots are also catching a quite the break with the Bills losing star corner Tre'Davious White for the year. With a team as hot and as well-coached as the Patriots are, I'll gladly take the points in what could very well be a one-score game.
Key trend: Patriots are 4-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning record.
The total for this game has dropped considerably since opening at 46.5. Coming out of Week 12, the total went down to 45 and continued to sink throughout the week as it now stands at 41 as of Sunday.
The pick: Under 41. This is just a slight lean towards the Under only because this total is so low at this point. Weather is expected to be a factor in this game, so if you were able to catch the Under on this total anywhere when it was 43 or higher, you're sitting pretty. The Bills and Patriots are the No. 1 and No. 2 defenses in the NFL in DVOA, respectfully, so if you're getting that type of elite play on defense along with bad weather, that's typically a recipe for the Under.
Key trend: Under is 7-2 in the Patriots last nine road games.
Mac Jones props
- Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +170, Under -210)
- Passing yards: 200.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
- Completions: 19.5 (Over -130, Under +100)
- Passing attempts: 29.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Total rushing yards: 5.5 (Over -125, Under-105)
The most appealing prop for Jones is the Over on is 19.5 completions. The Patriots rookie has been one of the more accurate quarterbacks in the league entering Week 13 and will likely need to throw a bunch to keep New England in this game. After all, the Bills' run defense No. 4 in the NFL in DVOA, so the Patriots may need to lean on Jones' arm even more. Jones has also gone over this completions total in eight of his 12 games played this season.
Josh Allen props
- Passing yards: 234.5 (Over -115, Under -115)
- Completions: 21.5 (Over +105, Under -135)
- Passing attempts: 32.5 (Over -125, Under -105)
- Total rushing yards: 34.5 (Over -120, Under -110)
The over on Allen's rushing yards prop is a lean. The Patriots haven't been great against the run this season and Allen in Buffalo's best runner. He's also gone over this prop in seven of his 11 games played heading into Week 13.
Player props to consider
Kendrick Bourne total receptions: Over 2.5 (-170). This number just feels too low for what is one of Jones' go-to weapons. He's gone over this prop in six-straight games coming into Week 13 and with the Bills not having White lurking in the secondary, this should be a smash play.
Dawson Knox total receiving yards: Over 28.5 (+105). The Patriots may be without second-year safety Kyle Dugger (COVID protocols) for this matchup, which creates quite the opportunity for Knox. Dugger has been most effective while covering tight ends this season, so New England will be missing a key piece to their defense if he's unable to suit up. That could be Knox's gain as he'll look to go over this total for the seventh time this season. Good value here at +105.