The New England Patriots will face the Indianapolis Colts on Saturday when they visit Lucas Oil Stadium for an NFL Week 15 matchup. The Patriots (9-4) have beaten Indianapolis (7-6) in eight straight meetings and are seeking their eighth consecutive victory this season. Both teams had bye weeks in Week 14, so they should be well-rested as they battle for playoff positioning. The Patriots are closing in on the AFC East title with a two-game lead over the Bills and a chance to sweep the season series next week. The Colts are essentially out of the AFC South race and are trying to hang on to a Wild Card spot.
Kickoff from Indianapolis is set for 8:20 p.m. ET. Indianapolis is a 2.5-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Colts odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under for total points scored is 46. Before you make any Colts vs. Patriots picks, you need to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 15 of the 2021 season on an incredible 132-96 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has broken down Saturday night's Colts vs. Patriots matchup from every angle and just released its picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are some betting lines and trends for Patriots vs. Colts:
- Patriots vs. Colts spread: Indianapolis -2.5
- Patriots vs. Colts: 46 points
- Patriots vs. Colts money line: New England +120, Indianapolis -140
- NE: Patriots are 12-6-0 after having a week off since 2011
- IND: Colts are 6-3-1 against the spread in their last 10 games off a bye week
Why the Colts can cover
The Colts are 8-5 against the spread this season and have been riding Taylor, who has rushed for 100 yards in seven of the past 10 games. Indy won all seven to rebound after starting the season 0-3. Taylor leads the league in rushing yards (1,348) and rushing TDs (16) and is averaging 5.7 yards per carry (3.7 after contact). He is also second on the team with 36 receptions.
The home team is 5-1 against the spread in the past six meetings, and Colts quarterback Carson Wentz has a strong cache of weapons, led by big-play man receiver Michael Pittman. The second-year pro has 882 yards (13.2 per catch) and five TDs, while slot receiver Zach Pascal (35 catches) also helps move the chains. Tight end Jack Doyle (27 catches) and running back Nyheim Hines (32) are valuable safety valves. Indianapolis' defense leads the NFL in takeaways (29) and turnover margin (plus-13) and allows 21.8 points per game (ninth in NFL).
Why the Patriots can cover
New England is 54-27-3 against the spread as an underdog (67 percent) with Bill Belichick as coach and has scored more than 30 points in nine consecutive matchups with the Colts. The defense has been one of the league's best, holding opponents to 15.4 points per game, best in the NFL. It also has forced 26 turnovers, third-most in the league, and cornerback J.C. Jackson is second in the NFL with seven interceptions. The unit has allowed an average of 10.4 points and has 18 takeaways during its seven-game win streak. The Patriots are 5-1 against the spread on the road this season.
The Patriots' defense has gotten major contributions from Matthew Judon, who came over from the Ravens in the offseason. He has 52 pressures and 12.5 sacks, six in the past six games. New England has allowed more than 100 yards on the ground once in the past five games.
How to make Patriots vs. Colts picks
The model is leaning Under on the point total, with the model suggesting neither quarterback will reach 225 passing yards. It also says one side of the spread has all the value. You can only get the model's Colts vs. Patriots picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Colts vs. Patriots on Saturday? And which side of the spread has all the value? Visit SportsLine right now to see which side of the Colts vs. Patriots spread you should be all over Saturday, all from the model on a 132-96 roll on its top-rated NFL picks, and find out.