The New England Patriots, coming off a grueling, leave-it-all-on-the-field Super Bowl loss, will look to reassert themselves as the NFL's premiere powerhouse when they host the Houston Texans on Sunday at 1 p.m. ET. Tom Brady is back for his 19th season along with stud tight end Rob Gronkowski.
With star receiver Julian Edelman serving a four-game PED suspension, Brady will turn to some fresh faces to keep the chains moving. The Texans finally get back quarterback Deshaun Watson, who was having a Pro Bowl-caliber rookie campaign before an ACL tear torpedoed his season. The Patriots are 6.5-point home favorites, while the Over-Under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, has held steady at 51.
Before you make your Patriots vs. Texans picks, you need to see what SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh has to say. Oh, a renowned data scientist and co-founder of AccuScore, specializes in sports simulations, projections and advanced statistical analysis. He is focused on NFL picks right now and is on a remarkable 14-5 hot streak on his selections involving the Patriots. Anyone who has followed his advice is up big.
Now, he has scrutinized Texans vs. Patriots from every possible angle to reveal a strong point-spread pick.
Oh knows that with Edelman out, Brady will look to get the ball into the hands of Gronkowski, who has 76 career TD grabs, including eight from last season. Other receiving options include Chris Hogan, ex-Indianapolis Colt Phillip Dorsett, Cordarrelle Patterson, and Chad Hansen, who was plucked off waivers after the Jets released him.
While the ground attack has played second fiddle to Brady and the high-powered air raid, New England has strong backfield options. Rex Burkhead is not listed on the injury report, while rookie Sony Michel has practiced on a limited basis. Both running backs are dealing with knee injuries. Currently, the only two rushers seemingly good to go on Sunday are James White and Jeremy Hill. Still, this is a throw-first Patriots squad that led the league in total offense last season with 394 yards per game.
Just because the Patriots boast a high-powered offense doesn't mean they can cover a spread that's nearly a touchdown. Watson shined in his lone career start against New England, throwing for 300 yards, two touchdowns, and scrambling for 41 more in a 36-33 loss. You can bet payback will be on his mind Sunday.
The Texans will rely heavily on the one-two backfield punch of Lamar Miller and Alfred Blue. Miller's rushing stats were slightly down in 2017, but his receiving numbers were up. With defenses employing eight in the box, Miller struggled to find traction, gaining 3.7 yards a carry for a total of 888. But he did score six times -- three on receptions.
On has evaluated all of these circumstances and while we can tell you he's leaning under, he has found a critical stat that determines which side of the spread you should be all over in this one.
So which side of the spread should you back for Texans vs. Patriots? And which critical stat determines the outcome? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to be all over, from the expert who is on an outstanding 14-5 Patriots heater, and find out.
