Before we know it, we'll be sitting back and watching Super Bowl LVIII unfold before our eyes. As is the case with every Super Bowl, each and every facet of the matchup is dissected to a tremendous degree, and this game is no exception. The Kansas City Chiefs are trying to become the first team since the 2003 and 2004 New England Patriots to repeat as champions, while the San Francisco 49ers are looking to finally get over the hump and win their first title since 1994.
While we wait for kickoff in what is certainly going to be a fantastic matchup, let's analyze this game a bit further and highlight five burning questions about the Super Bowl.
1. Will Mahomes have more Super Bowl woes?
Patrick Mahomes is currently on a trajectory that could find him one day as the greatest quarterback of all time. Part of that has been his stellar play in the postseason, where nearly all of his statistical output improves. However, when Mahomes does reach the pinnacle of the sport -- the Super Bowl -- he has struggled a bit. Out of every playoff round, the Super Bowl is his least productive, as he has thrown more interceptions (four) in his three Super Bowl appearances than his 14 other playoff games combined (three).
Mahomes' completion percentage drops from 69% in the first three rounds to 62% in the Super Bowl, which is the largest decrease among 13 quarterbacks with at least three Super Bowl starts. His yards per attempt also decreases from 8.0 in the first three rounds to 6.3 in the Super Bowl.
Of course, part of that is, in theory, stiffer competition as you proceed further into the playoffs, but if Mahomes' struggles continue that'll drastically limit Kansas City's ability to repeat.
2. Can the 49ers buck the Super Bowl rematch trend?
As you likely know, this game is a rematch of Super Bowl LIV that wrapped up the 2019 season. This marks the eighth time in history that we've seen a Super Bowl rematch. While Brock Purdy is now the quarterback for the 49ers instead of Jimmy Garoppolo, there are plenty of the same faces in this go around, including head coaches Kyle Shanahan and Andy Reid. For the Niners' sake, they'll be looking to buck a trend that doesn't look so favorably on them.
In each of the previous three instances when there's a head-coaching rematch in the Super Bowl, the coach to win the first meeting has also won the second. Five of the previous seven instances of teams meeting again in the Super Bowl saw a repeat winner.
3. Who wins the matchup: Travis Kelce or 49ers LBs?
Travis Kelce has come alive in these playoffs with back-to-back monster outings in the divisional round and AFC championship game. Kansas City will likely need another superstar performance from their tight end to hoist the Lombardi Trophy, which sets up one of the more fascinating matchups of Super Bowl LVIII.
San Francisco is allowing the seventh-fewest yards per reception (9.4) and second-fewest yards after catch per reception (3.9) against tight ends this season. The 49ers boast some of the best all-around linebackers in the league, headlined by Fred Warner, who'll likely be asked to help contain Kelce in order to lower the ceiling of the Chiefs offense.
Historically, the edge has gone in favor of Mahomes and Kelce in this matchup. In the three prior career games against the 49ers, Mahomes has completed 20 of his 24 targets to Kelce for 255 yards and a touchdown.
If that trend continues, it could be a long day for the Niners. However, if they stick to their averages and play the tight end tough, they'll put themselves in a great position. The winner of this head-to-head could very well win the game.
4. Will Kyle Shanahan blow a lead?
Sort of a mean question, but it needs to be asked considering his history in this spot. Shanahan has coached two of the largest blown leads in Super Bowl history in his career. The first came as the offensive coordinator of the Atlanta Falcons during the 2016 season. In Super Bowl LI, the Atlanta franchise famously blew a 28-3 lead to the Patriots, and a piece of the blame pie certainly goes to Shanahan for his play-calling down the stretch of that game. Then, as head coach of the 49ers, he blew a 20-10 lead to these same Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV just four years ago.
In the fourth quarter of those demoralizing defeats, Shanahan's teams combined for zero points, a 39% completion percentage, a 4.3 yards per play average and were 0 for 6 on third down. Considering who'll be their opponent, to go along with that history, Shanahan's team can't leave the door open even a crack if they can edge out a lead in this game.
5. Will the K.C. receivers continue to step up?
One of the biggest reasons why the Chiefs are in this Super Bowl is because they haven't been plagued by poor play from their wide receivers to the same level they were in the regular season. This year, the position group led the league in drops (28) and drop rate (12.0%), but those things have subsided in the playoffs. Through three postseason games, Chiefs receivers have recorded only two drops and cut their drop rate essentially in half (6.1%) from what it was in the regular season. Not only that, but they're also getting some clutch play from their wideouts, including Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who had a key 32-yard catch to ice the game in the AFC Championship. If this positive momentum carries through the Super Bowl, it's a massive win for the Chiefs in their Lombardi hopes.
