First place in the AFC South is on the line when the Indianapolis Colts host the Tennessee Titans at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday afternoon in Week 12. Despite both of these clubs owning a 7-3 record entering this head-to-head, it's the Colts who currently sit in first place in the division thanks to a Week 10 win against the Titans down in Nashville on Thursday Night Football. If the Titans come away with a win in Week 12, however, they'd not only leap over the Colts with an 8-3 record but nullify the head-to-head tiebreaker.
In this space, we'll be diving into all the different betting angles that this game has to offer, including the spread, over/under total, and a few of our favorite player props. All NFL odds are via William Hill Sportsbook.
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Titans (7-3) at Colts (7-3)
The spread initially opened at Colts -3.5. By the end of the day on Monday, that number rose to Colts -4 before dipping all the way to Colts -3 on Wednesday and where it has stood since.
While each of these teams come into Sunday with the same straight-up record, the Colts have been the better club ATS, owning a 6-4 mark on the season. Tennesse heads into this matchup 4-6 ATS. With Philip Rivers playing at an above-average level as of late and the defense playing as one of the top units in the league, it's hard to imagine them slowing down in Week 12. Not only have the Colts covered three of their last four games, but, under Frank Reich and Mike Vrabel, Indianapolis is 4-1 ATS and SU in the series.
Projected score: Indianapolis 27, Tennessee 21
This number opened at 49.5 and was quick to jump up over the 50 total, landing at 50.5 by Monday afternoon and has since climbed to 51.5 on the eve of this head-to-head. The last time these two met up in Week 10, they combined for 51 points.
On the season, the Over has a combined record of 13-6-1. Tennessee overs are now 16-3-1 with Ryan Tannehill in the regular season. Meanwhile, Indy has gone over in five of their last six games and has scored 30 or more points in four of their last five contests. While I expect this game to be high-scoring, I'm fading the over as this total may not climb high enough to squeak by.
Projected total: 48
Derrick Henry total rushing yards: Over 85.5 (-115). Indy's front-seven won't be as lethal with DeForest Buckner out after a positive COVID test. Meanwhile, Henry ran for 103 yards against this unit in Week 10.
Derrick Henry anytime touchdown (-175). In seven divisional games with Ryan Tannehill as his starter, Henry has eight rushing touchdowns. He's also averaging 143.3 rushing yards per game over that stretch, for what it's worth.
Michael Pittman Jr. total receiving yards: Over 55.5 (-115). The rookie receiver has been emerging over the past three games, averaging over four receptions and 74.3 receiving yards over that stretch. Now, Pittman goes against a Titans team that not only is allowing the sixth-most receiving yards per game this season but just allowed him to enjoy a season-high 101 receiving yards back in Week 10.
Nyheim Hines anytime touchdown (+125). He gave this defense fits in Week 10 and scored twice on Thursday night. With Jonathan Taylor out for this game, that's even more opportunity for Hines to find the end zone once again.