EASTERN CONFERENCE WINNERS
Key draft picks: Rashad Vaughn
Key free agents: Greg Monroe, Khris Middleton
I covered this in detail in Monday's column, but the Bucks have really put together something in Milwaukee. Getting Monroe was a big win for them. It's odd, because Monroe was such a consolation prize for so many other teams chasing one of the truly big free agents, but for the Bucks it's a monstrous get. The fact that they landed a marquee name is significant. They also kept Middleton, shelling out the $70 million to retain their best perimeter scorer.
The Bucks are going to be a huge pain to deal with next year.
Key draft picks: Delon Wright
Key free agents: DeMarre Carroll, Cory Joseph, Bismack Biyombo
Toronto improved itself by targeting specific weaknesses and avoiding overpays. The only player on big money long-term at this point is Carroll, which is a calculated risk from Masai Ujiri. Toronto's GM continues to hedge between winning with this core and looking to build a team in his vision. The Raptors' biggest culprit in the way they face-planted right out of the gate in the playoffs was their defense and guard depth.
So Ujiri trades Greivis Vasquez, who's competent but limited, gets more-NBA-ready Wright and his athleticism in the draft, then adds scorer and shooter Joseph, who's a spark plug. He didn't pursue Lou Williams because he knows that with the way the Raptors scored, Williams was a spoiler on a race car more than an essential engine component. He lands Carroll to defend the perimeter and give Toronto an upgrade over Terrence Ross on the wing. And the Raptors brought in Biyombo on a cheap deal to provide rim protection, which they needed way more than Amir Johnson's hustle.
These are all calculated risks. They're also ones that come with safeguards financially. Now about that new deal DeMar DeRozan will be chasing soon.
Key draft picks: None
Key free agents: LeBron James, Kevin Love, Tristan Thompson, Mo Williams
There's still a lot in the air for the Cavs as of this writing. LeBron James is technically not under contract as he waits for Cleveland to take care of Thompson. The rebounding machine was reportedly within hours of agreeing to a deal before it fell apart, but now the two sides are at a standstill. Iman Shumpert is back, but Matthew Dellavedova and J.R. Smith hang in limbo.
Those are mostly augmentations, though. The Cavaliers managed not to fail so spectacularly as to drive LeBron off in a year, no matter how remote that possibility was. Keeping Love is one thing. Getting him on a five-year deal is another. Having that combo along with Kyrie Irving means the Cavaliers will have a chance at the title every year for five years. They are cap-strapped, but loaded with talent and the cap is going up. Plus, they have the Brendan Haywood contract to deal.
Williams was a sneaky addition that honestly makes both Dellavedova and J.R. Smith expendable.
Key draft picks: Kristaps Porzingis, Jerian Grant
Key free agents: Arron Afflalo, Robin Lopez, Kyle O'Quinn (sign-and-trade), Derrick Williams
The Knicks' offseason wasn't exactly perfect. Striking out on every key free agent to the point where so few of them actually met with you is a bad look. In face, if every free agent they chased had granted them their proposed deals, their summer wouldn't have been good.
New York, in many ways, was accidentally very good. It took the big gamble with Porzingis, which is a great long-term gambit, if risk-laden. The Knicks' free-agent signings were opportunistic and built a quality foundation. Once again, the Carmelo Anthony element becomes a confounding variable in any evaluation of the Knicks. If Melo wasn't present, the Knicks simply drafted some guys with good future prospects, then added some talent.
Anthony's presence means the question is whether they added players that will make them good enough for the playoffs or to contend. It's possible, if things go right, they may have. After all, this is the East. However, it also seems on paper like they came up short in what they needed, based entirely on Melo's existence in blue and orange.
That doesn't dampen the good work, though. Afflalo on a cheap two-year deal is investing in a still-capable two-way guard that has a much better overall game than he showed last season. If he's comfortable and happy, he can have big nights. Lopez is way more valuable for his contract than DeAndre Jordan is for his.
The Knicks added good players and didn't do anything stupid. If we're grading them on the curve of what people expect for the Knicks and Phil Jackson, it wasn't good enough. If we judge them based on their franchise history, it was great.
Key draft picks: Justise Winslow
Key free agents: Dwyane Wade, Goran Dragic
Well, the Heat didn't lose their franchise cornerstone and most iconic player in team history in an ugly and public divorce while also managing to not give him long-term money, so that was nice. They also kept Dragic, who was their gem they acquired, and the most important player for them to retain. Winslow fell right in their lap, and fills a big need for them.
Miami avoided disaster and fully healthy, with a training camp together, have a chance at making a real run in the East next year.
EASTERN CONFERENCE LOSERS
Key draft picks: None
Key free agents: Paul Millsap, Tim Hardaway Jr. (trade), Tiago Splitter (trade)
This is the softest losing mark you're going to find for a team. The Hawks added rebounding and rim protection, not only in Splitter but with Spanish center Walter Tavares, who they signed after drafting his rights in 2014. They kept All-Star Millsap, and just couldn't afford to keep DeMarre Carroll.
They still lost him. They also turned the 15th pick in the draft into Hardaway Jr. and two future second-round picks. I like Hardaway Jr. and think he can contribute after the Hawks scrub the Knicks off him, like that piece of fruit that's still good if you cut the mold off the exterior. Still, that's just not great return on assets. The Hawks are rolling back most of the team that won 60 games last year. That's hard to argue against.
And yet it seems positively impossible for them to be as good as they were last year and their playoff performance made them the second-most disappointing East playoff team behind the Raptors. And that's saying something.
Key draft picks: Terry Rozier (?!), R.J. Hunter, Jordan Mickey
Key free agents: David Lee (trade), Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson
The Celtics could have drafted Hunter first and then Rozier, in those exact spots, and it would have been fine. But they didn't and so I remain, two weeks later, still perplexed on the decision. The Celtics basically shuffled some chairs around otherwise. They added Johnson, which will be like that scene in Back to the Future Part II where Marty sees his older self when Jared Sullinger faces him. The Lee move was good, no doubt. He can still contribute, and Gerald Wallace hasn't for two seasons. It's still a move to acquire a guy whose team was desperate to unload him.
Boston had so many assets and so many options and it mostly just brought back the team that got swept and tried to trade Marcus Smart (reportedly), who is arguably its best player. The answer to that question "Who's the best player on the Celtics?" is a disturbing rabbit hole to fall down.
Key draft picks: Myles Turner, Joseph Young
Key free agents: Monta Ellis, Rodney Stuckey, Lavoy Allen
Turner could blow up and make this whole proposition look stupid. I'm open to that possibility. But I can't get over this feeling like an overreaction by Larry Bird chasing the "smaller, faster" edict that he laid out. Trading Roy Hibbert for nothing was selling low on an All-Star talent that can still defend the rim -- even if his offensive game is gone forever. In his place the Pacers acquired Ellis, who is an annual candidate for premature "He's changed!" Internet posts that inevitably look silly, because it's Monta Ellis. He does help the Pacers in key mechanisms offensively, but remains a mixed bag. They have a lot of guards, Paul George, but lost two members of the best team in the East a year ago.
Key draft picks: Frank Kaminsky
Key free agents: Nicolas Batum (trade)
The Hornets gave up on Noah Vonleh awfully early in his development, drafted one of the highest bust-factor guys in the draft (and did so over Justise Winslow among other players), and didn't make any significant free-agent acquisitions before the time of this writing. They did trade Lance Stephenson, which counts as great addition by subtraction. Overall, though, it's hard to find ways that this team is better than the one they fielded last year, unless Kaminsky is way better than most projected or P.J. Hairston makes a monumental year-over-year leap.
Key draft picks: Bobby Portis
Key free agents: Jimmy Butler, Aaron Brooks
This one's up there with Atlanta for softest loser mark. They had a good team last year, just hit a downturn vs. Cleveland and got out-hustled in the midst of their front office vs. coach turmoil. They kept Butler on a five-year deal, Portis was a steal of a draft pick, and they didn't have much room to pursue upgrades. They still have a bit of wiggle room to add someone, too.
It's just that this mostly seems like the same wheel-spinning they've done for so long. First the idea was "get Rose healthy and see," and they combined that with the Pau Gasol signing last summer, which had mixed results. Their backcourt remains a mess, though, and re-signing Brooks only kind of reinforces that. The Portis pick was great value ... but he's stuck behind a legion of capable bigs.
Meanwhile, even if new coach Fred Hoiberg isn't the sadist Tom Thibodeau was, Butler may have to play 45 minutes a night again just because of rotation issues. It's hard to blame them, it's just also hard to credit them.
WESTERN CONFERENCE WINNERS
Key draft picks: Nikola Milutinov
Key free agents: LaMarcus Aldridge, David West, Kawhi Leonard, Tim Duncan
They got the biggest name in free agency in Aldridge, and they landed West for awesome depth and locker room leadership. This was a pretty easy one to give a passing grade to.
So why am I still so twitchy when people ask me about the Spurs?
Is it that they just put the pressure of extending the window and building a bridge to a new era from the greatest run in franchise history (and one of the best in all of sports) in the hands of a 30-year-old mid-range jump shooter? Is it that Aldridge's defensive questions may be exacerbated if Father Time finally takes the cloaking device off of Duncan? Is it that both Aldridge and West fall into the "We may have to have an uncomfortable conversation about where their career is going" zone?
Maybe it's because the Spurs sacrificed all of the depth that made up such an intrinsic part of their identity. You knew on any given night it was going to be someone new for the Spurs carving up the opponent. Those exasperated cries from the other team's fans wondering how Cory Joseph, Tiago Splitter and Aron Baynes could have done so much damage?
Maybe it's just contrarianism for contrarianism's sake. But if the Spurs had gotten Marc Gasol? I would have advised everyone to go to the basketball bunker and wait out Judgment Day. Instead I'm left with "Yeah, the'll be good again, aren't they always?" and wondering if maybe this time the Spurs were a little too smart for their own good.
Either way, they definitely still "win" the offseason.
Key draft picks: Branden Dawson
Key free agents: DeAndre Jordan, Paul Pierce, Lance Stephenson (trade)
From the brink of disaster back to title contenders, in a day the Clippers undid all the damage, got DeAndre Jordan back in the fold, and kept their status in the Western top tier. Without Jordan, they were doomed without cap flexibility or trade options, and were about to lose the saving grace of their defense. Instead, they get him back and have added Pierce and Lance Stephenson who bring playoff experience and talent.
They have better depth than they did last season, they kept the core intact, and Lob City rides again. All in about 24 hours. Not bad for a rush job.
Key draft picks: Jarell Martin
Key free agents: Marc Gasol, Brandan Wright
The impact of keeping Gasol cannot be overstated when it comes to Memphis. If Gasol had left, the team would have been reliant on older players on huge salaries in a small market that can't afford the luxury tax with Mike Conley's deal about to expire, and would have taken a huge tumble downward. Not only would Gasol's departure have signaled the end of the Grit-Grind era, it would have sunk the franchise's ability to effectively plan for a transition to a time when ZBo does not walk the paint like a Triceratops.
Instead, Memphis gets back the best player in franchise history, on a five-year deal no less. They Grizzlies have a chance to plan for another run with Conley and Gasol while keeping the feel-good atmosphere rolling on Beale Street at the Forum. Memphis can continue to look for young players to grow under its talented and winning combination of veterans instead of desperately striking out looking for gold under a rainbow.
Wright gave the Grizzlies depth at their biggest need with Kosta Koufos' new deal elsewhere a foregone conclusion. He also provides athleticism and pick-and-roll finishing ability, which is key for creating offense with the bench unit, and the price was definitely right.
Key draft picks: Willie Cauley-Stein
Key free agents: Rajon Rondo, Kosta Koufos, Marco Belinelli
Here's the problem with trying to tear apart the Kings' moves because of their front-office insanity and the fact that they traded Nik Stauskas and a first-round pick to create cap room to try and sign free agents that by and large turned them down. It's similar to the same tactic used by politicians when trying to win elections.
Are the Kings better off, roster-wise, than they were a year ago? The addition of Rondo was a one-year buy-in for a guy who is two years removed from being one of the most sought-after trade prospects in the league. Koufos was the best bang-for-buck center deal on the free-agent market this summer, and gives them a lot of options for how to deploy their frontcourt. Belinelli is a shooter, which is something they have lacked on the wings. They're a better team now than they were a month ago, that can't be disputed.
So yeah, in many ways, they are winners.
But let's not go crazy here, Sacramento.
The team still traded a former first-round pick and a future pick for the cap room to strike out on several non-star free agents, their coach and star player seem to hate one another and their owner is like something out of a P.T. Anderson flick. I'll throw you a bone by putting you on the winners list, but you need to take the hit here, too. It's a "soft" win.
WESTERN CONFERENCE LOSERS
Key draft picks: Justin Anderson
Key free agents:Wesley Matthews, J.J. Barea
UPDATE: Well, this needed some reconfiguration after DeAndre Jordan backed out of his deal with the Mavs and returned to the Clippers. They've gone from winners to the biggest losers.
Dallas not only misses out on the best interior defender and rebounder on the market, a player that fits perfectly with Dirk Nowitzki, but the events occurred so late that the Mavericks have little hope of finding alternate plans that don't involve tanking. Even if they manage to convince Robin Lopez or Kosta Koufos to back out of their deals with the Knicks or Kings respectively in the same manner, that's still a huge downgrade from Jordan.
You can argue that putting all their eggs in the Jordan basket was a dangerous strategy to start with, but putting all the eggs in that basket and then having the basket fly away back to Los Angeles is about as bad as it gets. The ordeal didn't look good for Jordan, but it's flat humiliating for Mark Cuban's crew, who couldn't eveng get back in the room to try and change Jordan's mind Wednesday.
Wesley Matthews' status doesn't make much sense without Jordan, especially if they have to rebuild. He's an aging player coming off an Achilles injury who would have been great with the rim protector Jordan behind him. The Mavericks aren't done in free agency, but in terms of bleak times in franchise history. Wednesday night's backtrack by Jordan set them up for one of the bleakest.
Key draft picks: None
Key free agents: Al-Farouq Aminu, Ed Davis, Gerald Henderson (trade), Noah Vonleh (trade), Mason Plumlee (trade)
Losing Aldridge was unpleasant. The whole thing soured quickly, and by the end, very few people in Portland were surprised he left the team. (Not that that saved poor Kim Hughes' job; note to self, don't publicly talk about the elephant in the room, even when it's wearing a pink neon dress and on fire). Losing LMA puts you on this list to start with. The follow-up moves just re-asserted the situation.
Davis, Aminu, Henderson, Plumlee and Vonleh are all enjoyable players to watch. They all fall in the "could swing a playoff series for a sub-contender" category. Together, though, it creates a very questionable roster for next season and going forward. It's like trying to make a meal out of condiments. The Blazers still have flexibility long-term and Damian Lillard, but you might want to buckle up, this is about to get rough.
Key draft picks: D'Angelo Russell, Larry Nance Jr.
Key free agents: Roy Hibbert (trade), Brandon Bass, Lou Williams
There's kind of a double-standard here. The Lakers are basically on this list because they aimed for the top free agents and whiffed so badly. They had to get a second meeting with Aldridge just to try and more appropriately sell their actual basketball team and not just their branding prowess ... to a basketball player. They still failed.
They swung out on Aldridge, never got in the room with Gasol, and according to Monroe's agent, offered him a max contract which he declined ... in order to go to Milwaukee. Jordan went to Dallas, the list goes on and on. Lopez reportedly chose the Knicks over the Lakers.
But the Knicks tried to get all these free agents and they struck out, yet wound up on the winners list. And Hibbert is better than Lopez, in talent if not contract, and Williams was the Sixth Man of the Year. So why do the Knicks wind up on the winning side and the Lakers so low, especially with a knock-out draft?
It's all about curves. The Knicks are talked about as a big-time and important NBA franchise, because they operate in New York. In reality, their history is littered with failure and misery. The Lakers, on the other hand, are the most storied franchise in league history (apologies to the Celtics but look at the last 15 years). L.A. finds itself caught trying to force its way into the conversation of being relevant instead of just accepting where the team is at. They also play in the West, so the bar is much higher.
When Jeanie Buss is saying she won't stand for the Lakers being out of contention and that heads will roll, and you come out of a key free agency period with Hibbert and Williams, you can't really put them on the winners list.
Key draft picks: None
Key free agents: Anthony Davis, Alexis Ajinca, Omer Asik, Dante Cunningham
The Pelicans made the playoffs and added a great coaching upgrade in Alvin Gentry. However, bringing back Asik given his overall deterioriating value and unbelievable playoff struggles on a long-term deal was odd. The Pelicans didn't clear up any of their questions about Ryan Anderson's role, or the complicated three-headed guard rotation of Jrue Holiday, Tyreke Evans and Eric Gordon.
Bringing back Ajinca and Cunningham were smart moves, but the Pelicans put themselves at risk for stagnation next year.
Of course, they did re-sign their presumptive top-five NBA player and franchise cornerstone to a five-year max, which makes everyone feel a lot better about the team. So no matter the short-term frustrations, the Pels can't feel too bad.
