NFL playoff projections: Cowboys will hold off the Seahawks for top seed in NFC

With the NFL season heading down the stretch, it's time to do one of our favorite things here at CBS Sports: Argue about who's going to make the playoffs.

As we head into Week 12, 31 of the league's 32 teams are still mathematically alive to make the playoffs. (Sorry, Browns fans, maybe next year, but probably not.)

How it works: Over the next six weeks, we'll publish a playoff projection every Wednesday, predicting who will make the postseason. Sure, the Chiefs seem like a lock to make the playoffs right now, but will they hold up against a murder's row slate that includes two games against Denver, a game in Atlanta and a game against the 8-2 Raiders?

The 7-3 Chiefs could be staring at 9-7.

Included in these projections will be data from number-cruncher Stephen Oh of SportsLine.com. As matter of fact, let's start with some of that data: According to SportsLine, the Patriots and Cowboys are 100 percent locks to make the postseason.

That doesn't mean they've clinched a spot, it just means SportsLine doesn't think its mathematically possible for either to miss the postseason, so go ahead and put that deposit on your playoff tickets if you're in New England or Dallas.

At the other end, SportsLine gives the Bears, Jaguars and 49ers a zero percent chance of making the playoffs, even though they haven't been eliminated.

One more note: Remember, this is a projection based on how we think the regular season will play out. If you want to see the current playoff standings, you'll want to click here to see Will Brinson's thorough breakdown of what the playoff race looks like as we head into Week 12.

AFC Playoff Projection

( Team, projected record after 16 games)

1. Patriots (13-3), AFC East champions: Bills coach Rex Ryan conceded the AFC East to the Patriots back in October, so the fact that they're the No. 1 seed in our first AFC projection should surprise no one.

Remaining schedule: At N.Y. Jets, Los Angeles, Baltimore, at Denver, N.Y. Jets, Miami (28-32 combined record, eighth-easiest remaining schedule in the league)

Our projection: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will be the AFC East champions. USATSI

2. Raiders (12-4), AFC West champions: As long as they don't fall flat on their faces down the stretch, they should earn their first playoff berth since 2002. The big advantage Oakland has over Kansas City and Denver is that its schedule is much easier.

Remaining schedule: Carolina, Buffalo, at Kansas City, at San Diego, Indianapolis, at Denver (32-28, tied for 12th-most difficult)

3. Steelers (10-6), AFC North champions: Someone has to win this division and it's looking more and more like that someone is going to be the Steelers. This isn't a necessarily a pick for Pittsburgh as much as it's a pick against Baltimore. The Ravens not only have to play the Steelers, Patriots, Dolphins and Eagles, but they also face the Bengals twice, a team that they've lost to five straight times. Although we're writing off the Ravens, SportsLine isn't: Their math says the Ravens have an almost identical shot of making the playoffs (37 percent) as the Steelers (38 percent).

Remaining schedule: at Indianapolis, N.Y. Giants, at Buffalo, at Cincinnati, Baltimore, Cleveland (25-35-1 combined record, fifth easiest)

4. Texans (9-7), AFC South champions: The Texans will basically win their division by default. Not only do the Colts have a banged-up Andrew Luck, but Houston has the second-easiest remaining schedule. For the Titans to even stay in this race, they probably would have to knock off the Broncos and Chiefs in consecutive weeks in December, and that's not likely. If the Colts and Texans tie at 9-7, and split the season series, the next tiebreaker would be divisional record, which currently favors Houston (3-0 to Indy's 2-2).

Remaining schedule: San Diego, at Green Bay, at Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Cincinnati, at Tennessee (23-37-1 combined record, second easiest)

5. Broncos (11-5), wild card: Even though John Elway lost two starting quarterbacks from 2015, it looks like he's still going back to the playoffs. However, it won't be easy. To get to 10 or 11 wins, the Broncos are going to have to navigate through the league's second-most difficult remaining schedule.

Remaining schedule: Kansas City, at Jacksonville, at Tennessee, New England, at Kansas City, Oakland (37-24, tied with K.C. for second-most difficult)

Von Miller and the defending Super Bowl champs have a tough road ahead of them. USATSI

6. Chiefs (10-6), wild card: Chiefs fans will be happy to hear the number crunchers at SportsLine are giving your team a 95 percent chance of making the postseason. However, we're not as high on them. The next two games (Broncos, Falcons) are on the road and it wouldn't be shocking to see Kansas City go down in both. If that happens, they would drop to 7-5, which means they'd need to play spectacular football to reach 10-6.

Remaining schedule: at Denver, at Atlanta, Oakland, Tennessee, Denver, at San Diego (37-24, tied with Denver for second-most difficult)

Just missed

Dolphins (9-7): Miami seems like a dark horse. If they can get to 10 wins, they might be able to snag the final wild-card spot. With the Broncos and Chiefs playing two of the hardest schedules down the stretch, don't be surprised to see at least one AFC West team collapse.

Also, there is some good news for the Dolphins.

Dolphins, currently the 7th seed, make the playoffs every other presidential election year. 1984, 1992, 2000, 2008... 2016?
— Andrew Abramson (@AbramsonFL) November 14, 2016

Colts (9-7): If the Colts can beat Houston in Week 14, they'll be one small Texans stumble away from stealing the division.

NFC Playoff Projection

1. Cowboys (13-3), NFC East champions: After coasting through the first 11 weeks against the league's softest schedule, the Cowboys better get ready for a punch to the gut down the stretch. Over the final seven weeks, Dallas plays the fourth-hardest schedule of any team.

Remaining schedule: Washington, at Minnesota, at NY Giants, at Tampa Bay, Detroit, at Philadelphia (35-24-1 combined record, tied for fourth-most difficult)

The Cowboys figure to be the top seed in the NFC, but the remaining schedule is tough. USATSI

2. Seahawks (12-3-1), NFC West champions: The Seahawks have been almost unbeatable in November and December the past two years -- they're 17-3 since the beginning of 2014 -- so it's almost impossible to see them collapsing down the stretch, especially when considering they have the NFL's easiest remaining schedule.

Remaining schedule: At Tampa Bay, Carolina, at Green Bay, Los Angeles, Arizona, at San Francisco (22-37-1 combined record, league's easiest)

3. Falcons (10-6), NFC South champions: Although Atlanta seems to suffer some sort of midseason collapse almost every season, it's going to be tough to do that in 2016. Not only do the Falcons already lead the division, but they have the easiest remaining schedule of any NFC South team. SportsLine says the Falcons have a 78 percent chance of making the playoffs. The Saints are the only other team in the division above 10 percent (21 percent).

Remaining schedule: Arizona, Kansas City, at Los Angeles, San Francisco, at Carolina, New Orleans (24-35-1 combined record, fourth easiest)

4. Vikings (9-7), NFC North champions: The Vikings should look at their game Thursday in Detroit as a playoff game, because the stakes are almost that high. If Minnesota loses it basically falls two games behind the Lions in the division because Detroit would hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, thanks to a 2-0 season sweep. We say the Vikings get the win, which catapults them to an NFC North title. The data guys at SportsLine are split on this one, giving the Vikings a 53 percent chance of making the playoffs to 55 percent for the Lions.

Remaining schedule: At Detroit, Dallas, at Jacksonville, Indianapolis, at Green Bay, Chicago (28-32 combined record, tied for eighth easiest)

It's been an up-and-down year for Mike Zimmer's Vikings, but they'll likely win the North. USATSI

5. Redskins (10-5-1), wild card: If I'm a Redskins fan, my biggest concern is four road games in the next five starts. If they break even in those road games, they've got a great shot at the playoffs. SportsLine pegs the Redskins playoff chances at only 43 percent, which is higher than the Eagles (34 percent), but lower than the Giants (54 percent).

Remaining schedule: At Dallas, at Arizona, at Philadelphia, Carolina, at Chicago, NY Giants (31-28-1 combined record, 13th most difficult)

6. Giants (10-6), wild card: The Giants are getting the final wild-card spot right now, but that might not last. After the Giants play the Browns on Sunday, they're not scheduled to play another team with a losing record the rest of the season, which means things could get ugly. When you get to the bottom of the page here, you'll notice a "just missed" list that includes the Lions and Eagles. Well, the Giants play both over the final seven weeks and a loss in either game could be catastrophic to the Giants' playoff chances.

Remaining schedule: At Cleveland, at Pittsburgh, Dallas, Detroit, at Philadelphia, at Washington (31-29-1 combined record, 16th most difficult. Depending on how Week 12 breaks down, the Giants could have the toughest remaining schedule after this week. The game against the 0-11 Browns makes the Giants' remaining strength of schedule look much easier than it actually is)