Teams used to success meet when the Dayton Flyers battle the Belmont Bruins in the title game of the 2021 ESPN Events Invitational in Orlando, Fla., on Sunday. The Flyers (3-3), who are 4-1 at neutral sites the past two years, stunned fourth-ranked Kansas 74-73 on Friday. The Bruins (5-2), who are 7-1 on neutral courts over the past two seasons, defeated Iona 72-65 in Friday's semifinal. The Flyers and Bruins have never met before.
The game from HP Fieldhouse is scheduled to tip off at 4 p.m. ET. Dayton is averaging 68.7 points per game, while Belmont averages 78.9. The Bruins are three-point favorites in the latest Belmont vs. Dayton odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over-under for total points scored is set at 145.5. Before making any Dayton vs. Belmont picks, check out the college basketball predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $2,100 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
- Dayton vs. Belmont spread: Belmont -3
- Dayton vs. Belmont over-under: 145.5 points
- DAY: The Flyers are 4-1 against the spread in their last five neutral site games
- BEL: The Bruins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall
Why Belmont can cover
The Bruins have won 20 or more games and earned postseason play in 14 of the past 16 years, including nine trips to the NCAA Tournament. Belmont, Gonzaga, Kansas and San Diego State are the only Division I programs to win 19 or more games 16 consecutive seasons. Helping lead the Bruins' offense is freshman guard Will Richard, who is averaging 11.1 points, 6.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists per game. He averaged 24 points, 8.8 rebounds and two assists per game his senior year of high school.
Also helping guide the offense is redshirt senior guard Grayson Murphy. In 30.9 minutes of action, Murphy averages 8.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, five assists and 2.9 steals per game. He is connecting on 51.1 percent of his field goals, including 40 percent from 3-point range. Murphy has reached double-figure scoring twice this season, including a 17-point performance in a 95-89 overtime win over Furman on Nov. 15.
Why Dayton can cover
The Flyers entered the tournament with three straight losses but have been impressive in wins over Miami (Fla.) and Kansas. Three players are averaging in double figures, including redshirt junior guard Elijah Weaver. He is averaging 10.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 1.7 assists and is connecting on 50 percent of his field goals, including 40 percent from 3-point range. He is also an 86.7 percent free throw shooter.
Also leading Dayton is redshirt sophomore Toumani Camara, who averages 10.8 points, seven rebounds, 1.7 assists and 1.2 steals per game. The transfer from Georgia became the first eligible transfer to be named Preseason All-Atlantic 10 third team. He scored 14 points on 6-of-9 shooting from the floor and a team-high seven rebounds against Kansas. In a season-opening win over UIC, he scored 15 points and grabbed 10 rebounds.
How to make Dayton vs. Belmont picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the total. In fact, it says 10 players will score at least eight points with the teams combining for 15 made three-pointers. It has also generated an against-the-spread pick that cashes in nearly 80 percent of simulations. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Belmont vs. Dayton? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 80 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Dayton vs. Belmont spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up nearly $2,100 on its college basketball picks the last five years, and find out.