While No. 6 seeds have historically dominated No. 11 seeds in March Madness, the playing field has leveled in recent years. Entering the 2022 NCAA Tournament, 6-seeds have won 62.5 percent of first-round games versus 11-seeds. However, over the last seven March Madness tournaments, the underdog 11-seeds have won 53.6 percent of these games. That should put No. 6 LSU (22-11) on upset alert as it faces No. 11 Iowa State (20-12) in Friday's first-round matchup.
Tipoff is at 7:20 p.m. ET in Milwaukee. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Tigers as four-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 129 in the latest LSU vs. Iowa State odds. Before making any Iowa State vs. LSU picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $1,500 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on LSU vs. Iowa State and revealed its coveted picks and predictions for the NCAA Tournament 2022. You can head to SportsLine to see all of the model's college basketball picks. Here are several college basketball odds and trends for Iowa State vs. LSU:
- Iowa State vs. LSU spread: LSU -4
- Iowa State vs. LSU over-under: 129 points
- Iowa State vs. LSU money line: LSU -190, Iowa State +160
- ISU: The Cyclones are 17-15 ATS on the road and at neutral sites
- LSU: The Tigers are 19-14 ATS on the road and at neutral sites
Why LSU can cover
LSU has one of the nation's premier defenses, ranking fourth in KenPom's efficiency rankings. That comes from not only pressuring opponents into the fourth-most turnovers in college basketball, but also locking down on the perimeter. The Tigers hold foes to just 28 percent from beyond the arc, which is the best 3-point defense of any of the 68 tournament teams.
LSU gets to face a reeling Cyclones squad that padded its record against weaker foes but has since struggled against better competition. Iowa State was the No. 8 team in the country and undefeated when 2022 hit. However, the Cyclones have gone 8-12 since the new year and fallen out of the Top 25 rankings. The Cyclones enter the 2022 NCAA Tournament on a three-game losing streak and was embarrassed in its most recent outing, a 31-point loss to Texas Tech in the Big 12 Tournament.
Why Iowa State can cover
Iowa State is well-tested, having beaten a number of highly-ranked tournament teams. The Cyclones hold wins over Texas Tech, Iowa and Texas, which are all seeded sixth or better in March Madness. They also bring it on the defensive end and hound opponents on the perimeter. Iowa State allows a 3-point percentage of just 29.6 percent, which ranks 21st in all of college basketball.
On offense, Iowa State has a true go-to guy in Izaiah Brockington who puts up 17.2 PPG. The well-traveled senior, who previously played at St. Bonaventure and Penn State, ranked fourth in the Big 12 in scoring, third in rebounds and fourth in field-goal percentage. He had a stretch of four straight 20-point games in February, capped off with a career-high of 35 points vs. West Virginia on Feb. 23. He's shown that he can take over a game at any moment and could exploit a vulnerable LSU team that has a 7-10 record over its last 17 games.
How to make LSU vs. Iowa State picks
SportsLine's model is leaning over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 138 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Iowa State vs. LSU? And which side of the spread hits 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.
