The Mountain West took a bit of a step back on the national scene in 2022 with just one win in 17 games against Power Five competition. Even so, it still managed to produce three teams with 10 wins, providing momentum for what could be a resurgent 2023 campaign.
Boise State looks to get over the hump after it finished the 2022 regular season with an 8-0 mark in conference play but lost to Fresno State in the conference championship game. As for the Bulldogs, star quarterback Jake Haener may have departed for the NFL, but UCF transfer Mikey Keene joins the roster with an 8-3 record as a starter.
While those two conference giants are the presumed favorites to win it all, they will have to hold off a strong group of potential usurpers. Longtime Air Force coach Troy Calhoun has his Falcons in the midst of a renaissance with a 20-6 record over the past two years. San Jose State boasts Mountain West Preseason Offensive Player of the Year Chevan Cordeiro at quarterback, while San Diego State is looking to climb back to the top after a bit of a down year.
Our CBS Sports college football experts have provided their picks and predictions for the Mountain West ahead of the 2023 season.
Bold predictions
- Dennis Dodd: In its last season before becoming the soon-to-be renamed Pac-12 (don't ask how), the MWC will make national headlines on the field with prominent upsets. Boise State beats No. 10 Washington, San Diego State beats UCLA, Wyoming beats Texas Tech and Fresno State wins at Purdue.
- Tom Fornelli: The top four teams will all finish within one win of each other in conference play.
- Chip Patterson: Colorado State will double its win total to hit bowl eligibility. Jay Norvell is in his second year as Rams coach, and after a disappointing 3-9 debut, I think we see a big step forward in 2023. The roster he inherited was less than ideal, and the group got off to a rough start last season after getting pounded 51-7 by Michigan. But things started to click for CSU in conference play, and with quarterback Clay Millen and a bunch of returning production back, the Rams will have one of the biggest year-over-year improvements in the league.
- Barrett Sallee: Boise State will give Washington an incredible scare in Seattle in Week 1. The Broncos will have the ball late with a chance to win and pull one of the biggest upsets of the young season but fall just short in front of a hostile crowd.
- Shehan Jeyarajah: One year after producing three 10-win teams, the Mountain West will not field a single team with double-digit wins in 2023. The league is too balanced at this point, especially with a divisionless schedule.
- David Cobb: There are nine games in Week 1 pitting Mountain West teams against Power Five opponents. While a couple are obvious mismatches, such as Nevada at USC, the MWC will turn heads by winning at least two of the matchups. Among the top candidates are Boise State at Washington, Fresno State at Purdue, San Jose State vs. Oregon State and Wyoming vs. Texas Tech.
- Jerry Palm: Boise State will represent the Group of Five in a New Year's Six bowl this season. It will be the first time the Mountain West champion does so since the inaugural CFP season of 2014. However, winning the conference gets harder in the future after the league adds Oregon State and Washington State.
- Will Backus: The Mountain West will finish with at least three ranked teams for the first time since 2018. Boise State, Fresno State and San Diego State all have a chance to make noise with their nonconference schedules, while Air Force could benefit from the overall strength of the league.
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Mountain West champion
Boise State: Boise State got off to a rough start last season, but a quarterback switch to Taylen Green helped spark a surge to the Mountain West Championship Game where the Broncos lost to Fresno State. Most of the offense is back, and Boise State is the favorite entering the season. There may be some growing pains on defense, but the Broncos should be back on top of the league in the end -- Palm (Dodd, Fornelli, Patterson, Sallee, Cobb, Backus)
Air Force: It's time to acknowledge the Falcons' crazy run under Troy Calhoun over the past few seasons. Not counting the pandemic season, Air Force has a cool 31-8 record over the past three campaigns. The Falcons are rebuilding their offense but rank top 20 nationally in returning defensive production. A trip to Boise State on Black Friday looms large, but the rest of the toughest games come in Colorado Springs. This is the year Air Force breaks through. -- Jeyarajah
