In 2022, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts all averaged between 28.1 and 29.4 FPPG in a standard CBS league. Joe Burrow (26.29) was the only other QB within five Fantasy points per game of them in leagues that reward six points per pass TD. Only six QBs averaged even 22 FPPG. Then there were nine QBs between 19.49 and 21.61 FPPG.
If this holds into 2023, the people drafting the top three QBs in Round 1 may actually have two solid legs to stand on. And it's worth saying that Mahomes and Allen's production last year was not a fluke at all. It's very close to their three-year average. The difference was that so few QBs kept up with them. In 2021, there were seven QBs who scored at least 23.8 FPPG. A full dozen hit that mark in 2020.
If you look at the projections at the bottom of this article and do the math' you will see that I have seven QBs projected for 23 FPPG and five more between 22 and 23. I do expect the back half of the top-12 QBs to bounce back. Here is what that means for strategy:
Quarterback draft strategy
While I'm not taking any QBs in Round 1, for the first time in several years I do have three QBs ranked in Round 2; Mahomes, Allen and Hurts. If you miss them, that's OK. Jjust aim for Lamar Jackson or Justin Fields in Round 4. In fact, I have about a two-round difference between the first several tiers, with Justin Herbert and Burrow in Round 6 (until Burrow is 100%) and Tua Tagovailoa and Anthony Richardson in Round 8. If you miss all of these guys there is a glut of QBs going in Round 10 or later who I am fine with.
This last paragraph was about full PPR leagues where passing touchdowns are worth six points. In non-PPR leagues, QBs get a little boost because everyone else loses those points from catches, but that boost is less than a round. In leagues that reward four points per pass TD, QBs should fall at least a round. The order should change also, and I have a list below with the QBs who move up in leagues that reward four points per pass TD.
In a league where you can start more than one quarterback? I published my Two-QB Top 200 on August 21.
Now let's take a look at the breakouts, sleepers and busts. As a reminder, sleepers and busts are heavily influenced by ADP, and for this version, we're using CBS ADP:
Fields gave us a taste of what his breakout could look like. From Weeks 7-11, he averaged 34 FPPG despite throwing for just 154 yards per game in those contests. His explosion mostly came on the ground with 552 rushing yards in five games, though he did throw nine touchdown passes as well. Fields battled injuries and ran into some tough defenses down the stretch, but that five-week stretch was about as good as any quarterback from a Fantasy perspective. In 2023, there's hope Fields could be more consistent and do more with his arm. D.J. Moore and an improved offensive line should help. Moore is an enormous upgrade over Darnell Mooney as a true No. 1 receiver, and Mooney fits much better as a No. 2. Even their No. 3, Chase Claypool, should be better with an offseason in Chicago under his belt.
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The truth is, I think the only skill Tagovailoa needs to improve is protecting himself. He averaged 23.2 FPPG last year in his healthy games, which was better than Justin Fields and Trevor Lawrence. A second year in Mike McDaniel's system with arguably the best pass-catching duo in the NFL means Tagovailoa has top-three upside this season if he plays 17 games. He spent the offseason learning jiu-jitsu, and the art of the fall for just this purpose.
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Richardson put on a show at the NFL combine, running a 4.43 40-yard dash and grading out as the most athletic quarterback to ever appear at the combine. This comes as no surprise to anyone who saw him average nearly 7 yards per carry at Florida. Richardson has the profile of one of the best running quarterbacks ever and he landed in the perfect place as well, with Shane Steichen as his head coach. Steichen spent the past two years as the offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles, and oversaw Jalen Hurts averaging 10 rush attempts per game.
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Jones is actually going one pick after Richardson, at QB17. I'm not the biggest fan of Jones as a passer, but he's one of the best running QBs in the league and he just added Darren Waller. He should improve on last year's 19.7 FPPG and be a solid high-end QB2 you can stream against the right matchups.
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This is about as predictable as it gets. We get to August, a QB is being drafted in Round 1, and we all call him a bust because no quarterback should be drafted in Round 1 of a one-QB league. I don't have any actual concerns about Mahomes, just his cost. Even if you're in one of those leagues where QBs fly off the board in Round 1 and 2, don't go chasing them. Eventually everyone will have a signal caller, you'll have a stacked roster, and you can still draft a couple of sleepers and it will work just fine.
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Watson's ADP suggests that everyone is willing to ignore the final six games of 2022. I am not. He was one of the worst QBs in the league in those six games and there have been hiccups in training camp as well. Kevin Stefanski has traditionally called a run-heavy scheme and if Watson isn't all the way back we may see that again. There's just no reason to pay a Round 6 or 7 price tag for a QB with this many question marks.
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Numbers to know
- 2 -- Mahomes and Allen are the only QBs in the NFL to finish top five each of the past three seasons.
- 29.04 -- Joe Burrow averaged 29 FPPG in the nine games that Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins were both healthy.
- 0.89 -- Daniel Jones averaged 0.89 Fantasy points per rush last year, second only to Jalen Hurts.
- 105.5 -- Tua Tagovailoa led the NFL with a 105.5 passer rating. He also lead the league in yards per attempt, and touchdown rate.
- 2,973 -- Jalen Hurts produced 2,973 yards from scrimmage in the first half of games last year, nearly double his second half production. If the Eagles play more competitive games, he could be even better.
- 69.8% -- Geno Smith led the NFL in completion percentage and now he's added Jaxon Smith-Njigba. We might all be too low on Smith.
- 643 -- Kirk Cousins threw 643 passes in a season that his team won 13 games. If their defense and luck regress, Cousins could approach 700 attempts.
- 40.8 -- Lamar Jackson averaged more than 40 FPPG the first three weeks of last season, then Rashod Bateman got hurt. With new weapons and a new OC, Jackson could compete for QB1 again.
Draft to stream
Geno Smith vs Rams, at Lions
For the past two years, the Rams have had a super-talented defense that doesn't quite perform like one. Now I'm not even sure they are that talented. Smith had a legitimately great 2022 and then added Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Zach Charbonnet to an already talented crew. No matter how he does in Week 1, we'll be starting him at Detroit in Week 2. No team gave up more Fantasy points to QBs in 2022 than the Lions.
Jared Goff at Chiefs, vs Seahawks, vs Falcons
Speaking of Detroit, Goff wasn't as good as Smith last year, but he was one of the surprises of the 2022 season and now gets to open the 2023 campaign in a shootout against the Chiefs before back-to-back home games against mediocre defenses. The Chiefs gave up the third-most Fantasy points to QBs last year, partially because of how often their offense scored. This year shouldn't be much different. Goff should be a top-12 QB over the first three weeks.
Russell Wilson vs Raiders, vs Commanders
I completely understand if you don't want to start Wilson in Week 1 after what we saw last year. But I have hope that with Sean Payton there, Wilson will bounce back. It's worth noting that one of Wilson's best Fantasy days of last season came at Las Vegas and that the Raiders gave up the fifth-most Fantasy points to QBs last year. They should be better in 2023, but not much. There is an outside chance Wilson does enough in Week 1 that you're no longer streaming.
Format matters
Better in leagues that reward four points per pass TD: Anthony Richardson, Daniel Jones, Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields
Better in leagues that allow you to start more than one QB: Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff, Kenny Pickett, Jordan Love, Derek Carr