You guys asked for it, so I've done it. But I don't have to like it. 2022 rookie draft picks have been loaded into the updated Dynasty trade chart below. In fact, I went ahead and put 2023 first-round picks in there as well. Now before you study them too hard, let's talk about why I don't really like it.
Once we get into the season, especially late in the season, I can break down the rookie picks into early, late, and mid values. That's a much better way to look at it because a top-three pick is obviously worth more than pick 12. The problem with trading for 2022 picks right now is it's a pretty big guessing game. Sure, some teams are so bad you're sure their picks will be better. Some teams are so awful you can likely guarantee a top-half selection. But in June, those teams are the minority. This issue grows exponentially with 2023 picks.
So consider the values below with a grain of salt. I basically viewed them as No. 7 picks. Even that value will change next winter when we know just how deep this draft class actually is. But it's safe to say this: If you're trading for a first-round pick from a team that is totally stacked, don't give up the value below. If you're trading for a first-round pick from one of the worst teams in the league, you can give up more.
While it's not a great time of year to evaluate 2022 rookie picks, it's the perfect time to go over some guidelines to make this chart more useful. I try to do this at least once a year, so if you read this last year, some may sound familiar:
- More than any other format this is a 'get your guy' format. You could have a quarterback or receiver on your roster for 10 or 15 years. Want to overpay for your guy? I can't blame you and you shouldn't feel uneasy about it.
- All value is relative. Contenders shouldn't pay as much for rookies and draft picks. Rebuilders shouldn't have any interest in trading for Aaron Rodgers, Travis Kelce, or Julio Jones. You could probably add any running back over 24 to that list. Knowing what you and your trading partner are trying to accomplish makes the process much easier.
- The following values are based on a one-QB PPR league where you start two running backs, three receivers, one tight end, and a flex. In non-PPR receivers would be worth about three points less. In any league where you can start more than one QB you should boost the QB value by 18 points. In tight end premium leagues you should boost the TE value by nine points.
- As a rule, if I'm rebuilding I want to do it with receivers and an elite quarterback first. If you hit on those, you should have a window of five to 10 years. If you hit on running backs your window is half of that before you have to replace them.
- If I'm a contender, especially if I'm trying to repeat, I have no problem overpaying for vets as long as they're difference makers. Flags fly forever.
- Do. Not. Get. Stuck. In. The. Middle. Be honest with yourself, if you aren't actually a contender and you're not young, you need to tear it down. Even if that means not receiving full value on the chart below. Veterans almost universally decrease in value. Rebuilding in the future will only be more difficult.