Fantasy Football 2023 Draft Prep: Updated TE Tiers & Strategies point to best & worst ways to draft position

USATSI

We've talked about it on our podcast -- there's really only one major strategy when it comes to tight ends: Great or Late.

It means you either nab one of the top tight ends at an appropriate price, or you wait until Pick No. 100 or later and be non-committal to the tight end you choose, hopefully someone you believe has upside to score 11 PPR points per game or more.

That mark might not seem like much to you, but it should. Last season, only five tight ends averaged 11.0 or more PPR points per game. That's about the five-year average for what's been "next best" among tight ends after the likes of Travis Kelce, who is the no-doubter No. 1 tight end with the expectation that he will give you a decided advantage (worth at least 5.3 PPR points per game over other tight ends last year).

Because not many tight ends score a slew of points, waiting for one in drafts and streaming them throughout the season makes sense. That strategy is further helped by this: Over the past five seasons, 48% of the tight ends who have finished top five in PPR have been drafted in Round 10 or later including T.J. Hockenson and Evan Engram in 2022.

Dave's Tiers: QB | RB | WR | K/DST

So if the first pre-draft thought exercise is to rank the tight ends whom you believe will exceed 11-plus PPR points per game, the second should be making a list of the sleeper tight ends you'd be OK starting the season with. And the third should be ranking those who are in-between.

My tiers reflect these. Kelce is in his own tier for obvious reasons, though it's not lost on me that we as a community race into the arms of a 33-year-old tight end while we run away from 30-year-old wide receivers and 28-year-old running backs. Tier 2 represents the tight ends I think have 11-point PPR potential and wouldn't mind taking with a top-60 pick, though in the case of Hockenson and Kyle Pitts, they're much closer to 60th than 40th in my ranks.

Should I just call Tier 3 the Worry Tier? I'm not feeling it with Darren Waller, George Kittle or Dallas Goedert because all carry significant concerns based on health, target volume or both. You could make the argument they're not worth the risk unless they slide well into Round 7, but in most leagues they'll get snagged before then. That includes Kittle, who was so good for our Fantasy teams late last year but mostly came through when Deebo Samuel wasn't on the field for San Francisco.

Tier 4 might make you a little sick but this is where the "late" part of Great or Late comes into play. These tight ends all have a shot to flirt with 100 targets and six-plus touchdowns over the course of the season. They all also are being drafted at a low cost, making them much easier to move on from if they don't deliver big numbers compared to the Tier 3 guys. Also: all of the tight ends in Tier 4 are either as young or younger than all the tight ends in Tier 3, so we can't completely rule out several of them leap-frogging the tier above.

Tier 5 is for the tight ends who don't have the profile as Tier 4 tight ends but carry upside in case things break their way. You're hoping these guys can at least give your lineup a little boost to begin the season. I don't expect more than half of these tight ends to even get drafted in most 12-team leagues, which means there should be some waiver-wire gems once the season gets rolling. That's all the encouragement you need to hear if you end up streaming the position, be it by choice or by happenstance.

The case for two tight ends: It's no longer a rookie mistake to take two tight ends as long as one of them is taken late. The position is so scarce and there are so many intriguing late-round options that a manager could even draft Kelce, wait 12 rounds, then scoop a prospect and hope he takes off. We do it all the time with other positions, why not tight ends?! The trade value if you hit on a late-rounder would be great, so it's not a bad decision to slide a second tight end onto your roster.

DAVE'S FAVORITE STRATEGY: Draft Kelce as soon as ninth overall in PPR, 13th overall in non-PPR. If someone else takes Kelce, aim for a Tier 2 tight end at a fair value. Do not reach! Avoid the Tier 3 tight ends unless they slide, and if they're gone then settle for one of the Tier 4 tight ends before Round 11 ends and be ready to stream.