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USATSI

There's been this tug-of-war between rushers and receivers for Fantasy supremacy. For now, receivers are winning, which is why you'll see more non-running backs go in Round 1 than ever before, but that's true ONLY if your league counts receptions for anything.

On top of being kicked off the top of the mountain in PPR formats, a changing of the guard is happening at running back. Four of the top 10 RBs in my PPR rankings -- guys we've counted on for years -- are at least 27 years old (and Saquon Barkley is 26). This doesn't include prior stalwarts of the Fantasy galaxy like Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook, who aren't slam-dunk top-20 overall picks anymore.

This coincides with something NFL fanatics have known for years: More teams than ever are utilizing multiple running backs. It makes sense for coaches to preserve the bodies of their rushers, but it takes away precious opportunities we want for Fantasy glory. Only four running backs -- Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor and Barkley -- averaged 20 touches per game in 2022. There were twice as many in 2021 ... not that eight is a strong number of players. It used to be higher than that.

So it stands to reason that if there aren't as many high-volume running backs to benefit from, then demand for the ones who do touch the ball a lot will skyrocket. Because, as even a small child could figure out, the more touches a running back gets, the more Fantasy points they should score. 

This poses a lot of strategy questions you may have.

Does this mean it's worth it to take a running back in Round 1? In non-PPR, absolutely. In half- and full-PPR, you have options. All of the high-volume Tier 1 RBs will get snagged, but not quickly since the elite-level WRs will be popular. Injury issues aside, there is 20-point PPR per-game potential with all of those mega backs; only a few of the running backs in Tier 2 have close to that much upside. Bottom line: If you're comfortable with the risk, and if you don't want to get stuck with a crummy starter later on, taking the running back in Round 1 is fine.   

Am I stuck if I don't take a running back in Round 1? Of course not. There might not even be a statistical disadvantage if you pick up someone like Henry or Nick Chubb in Round 2 in PPR (both are Round 1 picks in non-PPR), but all they have to do is stay healthy and stay efficient at levels they've played at for the past two seasons and you're golden. They're not the only two RBs worth a second-round pick, but they're the best two who should have a top 20 average draft position.

I don't want to take running backs with my first two picks -- what am I looking at in Rounds 3 and 4? The backs who will flow through 25th and 50th overall have 15-touch potential. That's cool, it means they can still put up productive Fantasy numbers, but their dominant games won't be as plentiful as the ones chosen prior. They should be good starters, occasionally great starters, and sometimes awful starters.

I DO want to take running backs with my first two picks -- what problems might I have later? On Draft Day, there's nothing major to fear because the wide receiver position is plentiful. And you may find it worth the risk because having two stud running backs putting up big points will make your team dominant. 

But this strategy is the most volatile. If fate isn't friendly, you'll have trouble on two fronts -- if the RBs you pick stink or get hurt, you may struggle to make lineup choices at running back during the year AND you'll be behind the curve at the other positions you waited to fill. Say you land Barkley and Pollard with your first two picks -- imagine the trouble you'll be in if Pollard doesn't get juiced-up touches and Barkley misses part of the season.

What if I go Zero RB and not even bother with a running back until Round 5? It's the opposite of the above -- you should have strong starters at wide receiver and be loaded at quarterback and/or tight end, but you'll put some pressure on yourself to find potent running backs from Tier 5 and beyond. And when I say beyond, I mean beyond Draft Day because you might be searching for RB help all year. If you trust yourself to find running back values in your draft, or find running backs off waivers throughout the season, you should try this approach so long as you don't pass an obvious RB value up. For what it's worth, I expect at least three managers in every league to try this in 2023. 

DAVE'S FAVORITE STRATEGY AT RB: Draft at least one Tier 1 or 2 running back early without fear. It doesn't have to be your first pick, but it shouldn't be your third. Build up your wide receiver starters after that unless there's a no-brainer at another position, including running back, that falls into your lap. And also, have six running backs before you get to Round 12. 

Running back PPR tiers (updated 8/4)

Round 1
Tier 1
C. McCaffrey SF Christian McCaffrey SF
A. Ekeler WAS Austin Ekeler WAS
B. Robinson ATL Bijan Robinson ATL
S. Barkley PHI Saquon Barkley PHI
T. Pollard TEN Tony Pollard TEN
Round 2
Tier 2
D. Henry BAL Derrick Henry BAL
N. Chubb CLE Nick Chubb CLE
J. Jacobs GB Josh Jacobs GB
Round 3
Tier 3
R. Stevenson NE Rhamondre Stevenson NE
J. Taylor IND Jonathan Taylor IND
J. Mixon HOU Joe Mixon HOU
N. Harris PIT Najee Harris PIT
Round 4
Tier 4
A. Jones MIN Aaron Jones MIN
J. Conner ARI James Conner ARI
J. Gibbs DET Jahmyr Gibbs DET
T. Etienne JAC Travis Etienne JAC
D. Pierce HOU Dameon Pierce HOU
A. Mattison LV Alexander Mattison LV
K. Walker III SEA Kenneth Walker III SEA
Round 5-6
Tier 5
B. Hall NYJ Breece Hall NYJ
R. White TB Rachaad White TB
M. Sanders CAR Miles Sanders CAR
J. Dobbins LAC J.K. Dobbins LAC
J. Williams DEN Javonte Williams DEN
J. Cook BUF James Cook BUF
D. Montgomery DET David Montgomery DET
A. Kamara NO Alvin Kamara NO
Round 7-8
Tier 6
I. Pacheco KC Isiah Pacheco KC
C. Akers MIN Cam Akers MIN
A. Dillon GB A.J. Dillon GB
D. Swift CHI D'Andre Swift CHI
D. Cook BAL Dalvin Cook BAL
K. Herbert CHI Khalil Herbert CHI
B. Robinson Jr. WAS Brian Robinson Jr. WAS
S. Perine DEN Samaje Perine DEN
R. Penny CAR Rashaad Penny CAR
Round 9-10
Lottery Tickets
D. Achane MIA De'Von Achane MIA
A. Gibson NE Antonio Gibson NE
Z. Charbonnet SEA Zach Charbonnet SEA
J. Williams NO Jamaal Williams NO
T. Bigsby JAC Tank Bigsby JAC
Round 12+
Backups
R. Johnson CHI Roschon Johnson CHI
D. Harris BUF Damien Harris BUF
J. McKinnon KC Jerick McKinnon KC
J. Wilson MIA Jeff Wilson MIA
E. Mitchell SF Elijah Mitchell SF
D. Singletary NYG Devin Singletary NYG
Z. White LV Zamir White LV
T. Allgeier ATL Tyler Allgeier ATL
T. Chandler MIN Ty Chandler MIN
J. Ford CLE Jerome Ford CLE
D. Foreman CLE D'Onta Foreman CLE

Running back non-PPR tiers (updated 8/4)

Round 1
Tier 1
C. McCaffrey SF Christian McCaffrey SF
A. Ekeler WAS Austin Ekeler WAS
B. Robinson ATL Bijan Robinson ATL
S. Barkley PHI Saquon Barkley PHI
D. Henry BAL Derrick Henry BAL
T. Pollard TEN Tony Pollard TEN
N. Chubb CLE Nick Chubb CLE
Round 2
Tier 2
J. Jacobs GB Josh Jacobs GB
R. Stevenson NE Rhamondre Stevenson NE
J. Taylor IND Jonathan Taylor IND
J. Mixon HOU Joe Mixon HOU
Round 3
Tier 3
N. Harris PIT Najee Harris PIT
A. Jones MIN Aaron Jones MIN
J. Conner ARI James Conner ARI
A. Mattison LV Alexander Mattison LV
T. Etienne JAC Travis Etienne JAC
Round 4
Tier 4
D. Pierce HOU Dameon Pierce HOU
K. Walker III SEA Kenneth Walker III SEA
J. Dobbins LAC J.K. Dobbins LAC
J. Gibbs DET Jahmyr Gibbs DET
Round 5-6
Tier 5
B. Hall NYJ Breece Hall NYJ
J. Williams DEN Javonte Williams DEN
M. Sanders CAR Miles Sanders CAR
D. Montgomery DET David Montgomery DET
R. White TB Rachaad White TB
J. Cook BUF James Cook BUF
A. Kamara NO Alvin Kamara NO
C. Akers MIN Cam Akers MIN
I. Pacheco KC Isiah Pacheco KC
A. Dillon GB A.J. Dillon GB
Round 7-8
Tier 6
D. Cook BAL Dalvin Cook BAL
K. Herbert CHI Khalil Herbert CHI
D. Swift CHI D'Andre Swift CHI
B. Robinson Jr. WAS Brian Robinson Jr. WAS
R. Penny CAR Rashaad Penny CAR
S. Perine DEN Samaje Perine DEN
Round 9-10
Lottery Tickets
D. Achane MIA De'Von Achane MIA
A. Gibson NE Antonio Gibson NE
D. Harris BUF Damien Harris BUF
J. Williams NO Jamaal Williams NO
T. Bigsby JAC Tank Bigsby JAC
Z. Charbonnet SEA Zach Charbonnet SEA
R. Johnson CHI Roschon Johnson CHI
Round 12+
Backups
J. Wilson MIA Jeff Wilson MIA
E. Mitchell SF Elijah Mitchell SF
D. Singletary NYG Devin Singletary NYG
Z. White LV Zamir White LV
G. Edwards LAC Gus Edwards LAC
J. McKinnon KC Jerick McKinnon KC
T. Allgeier ATL Tyler Allgeier ATL
D. Jackson NYG Deon Jackson NYG
T. Chandler MIN Ty Chandler MIN
D. Foreman CLE D'Onta Foreman CLE
J. Ford CLE Jerome Ford CLE

Which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which RB shocks the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that nailed Deebo Samuel as a bust last year, and find out.