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Last year, only four quarterbacks averaged over 24 points per game (six-point-passing-TD leagues). Two years ago that number was 12.

The flipside is that nine other passers averaged between 20 and 22 points per game, many of which underwhelmed on their way to that mark. For instance, Justin Fields started slow (10.4 points per game in his first four) before catching fire (26.2 from Week 5 on) while Lamar Jackson began the season flying high (40.7 in his first three) before getting grounded (16.4 in his last nine).

Two things happened here: One, the position remained satisfactorily deep given that 13 passers at least made it to 20 points per game. Two, other positions weren't deep with mega-studs. Only 14 wide receivers averaged more than 15 PPR points per game last year ... and 17 receivers scored between 12 and 14.9 points per game. Same thing at running back: Ten rushers averaged 15-plus, 14 more averaged between 12 and 14.9. You know tight ends weren't great once you got past the top guy or three.

What's a manager to do? Simple: if you're not going to get a stat dominator at another position, the natural pivot is to take a stat dominator at quarterback. And because there are fewer stat dominators expected at the other positions, the consensus will chase a stat-dominating quarterback sooner.

It's supply and demand. And truthfully, it's been going on in home leagues for years. This year, it feels justified.


The Tier 1 quarterbacks all have potential for as many as 30 Fantasy points per game (25 points in four-point passing touchdown formats). They'll all be long gone by the end of Round 2 in one-QB leagues, so if you happen to find yourself in Round 2 and you don't love anyone left at the other positions, do not hesitate to take one of these three. Don't get upset if others take them in Round 1 -- they're costing themselves value at other positions.

You will feel much better about your bargain power, however, if you pick from Tier 2. These five quarterbacks are capable of turning in 25 or more points per game (21 or more in four-point passing touchdown formats). You should be able to wait as many as three rounds later than Tier 1 and collect someone with close to the upside as the QBs taken before 24th overall.

Both of the quarterbacks in Tier 3 have great upside, but they have flaws you have to account for -- Tua Tagovailoa with his recent injury history, Anthony Richardson with his inaccuracy and inexperience. You'll feel better rostering them if you have another quarterback behind them in case they stink or get hurt.

Tier 4 is fine if you're satisfied with 20 to 23 Fantasy points per game from your signal-caller. These are also the same quarterbacks you'll target if you want a really good backup to pair with a high-ceiling/low-floor starter.

Tier 5 quarterbacks have similar upside to Tier 4 but more downside. Do not expect all of these quarterbacks to get taken in your one-QB drafts, meaning that some could be valuable waiver-adds during the year.

 

DAVE'S FAVORITE STRATEGY IF YOU START ONE QB: Aim for one of the quarterbacks in the first two tiers, but don't take one if it means passing on a very good player at another position. Tier 3 is the fallback plan, which means you will end up taking two quarterbacks. If you wait until Tier 4 to find a quarterback, you better have a stacked roster otherwise.

DAVE'S FAVORITE STRATEGY IN SUPERFLEX/TWO-QB FORMATS: The entire equation changes because the demand changes. Don't hesitate to spend two of your first three picks on quarterbacks, especially if you can pick up one from Tiers 1 and 2.

Quarterback tiers (updated 8/4)

Round 2
Tier 1
P. Mahomes KC Patrick Mahomes KC
J. Hurts PHI Jalen Hurts PHI
J. Allen BUF Josh Allen BUF
Round 4-6
Tier 2
J. Burrow CIN Joe Burrow CIN
J. Fields PIT Justin Fields PIT
L. Jackson BAL Lamar Jackson BAL
J. Herbert LAC Justin Herbert LAC
T. Lawrence JAC Trevor Lawrence JAC
Round 7-8
Tier 3
T. Tagovailoa MIA Tua Tagovailoa MIA
A. Richardson IND Anthony Richardson IND
Round 9-10
Tier 4
D. Prescott DAL Dak Prescott DAL
D. Watson CLE Deshaun Watson CLE
K. Cousins ATL Kirk Cousins ATL
Round 11+
Tier 5
G. Smith SEA Geno Smith SEA
A. Rodgers NYJ Aaron Rodgers NYJ
D. Jones NYG Daniel Jones NYG
J. Goff DET Jared Goff DET
R. Wilson PIT Russell Wilson PIT
M. Stafford LAR Matthew Stafford LAR
B. Young CAR Bryce Young CAR
K. Murray ARI Kyler Murray ARI
Two-QB Tier-ritory
D. Carr NO Derek Carr NO
B. Purdy SF Brock Purdy SF
J. Love GB Jordan Love GB
K. Pickett PHI Kenny Pickett PHI
C. Stroud HOU C.J. Stroud HOU
R. Tannehill TEN Ryan Tannehill TEN
M. Jones JAC Mac Jones JAC
D. Ridder ARI Desmond Ridder ARI
J. Garoppolo LAR Jimmy Garoppolo LAR
S. Howell SEA Sam Howell SEA

Which sleepers, breakouts and busts should you target and fade, and which QB shocks the NFL with a top-10 performance? Visit SportsLine now to get cheat sheets for every single position, all from the model that nailed Deebo Samuel as a bust last year, and find out.