Every week I will give you facts that you need to know about every matchup in the NFL to help you set your lineup for the highest probability of winning.
Week 1 is a little bit of a challenge because we don't have any current data to sink our teeth into and in general, I believe you start your studs. However, there are some interesting facts that will make certain players more (and less) appealing in the opening week.
Baltimore Ravens at Denver Broncos, Thu., 8:30 p.m. ET
• Anquan Boldin and Dennis Pitta were two of Joe Flacco's
Top 3 targets from a year ago and accounted for 126 receptions, 1,590
yards and 11 of his 22 touchdown passes.
• Ed Dickson has never had a season with 550 yards receiving and
neither Dallas Clark nor Brandon Stokley has reached that mark since 2009.
• Five of the
final eight tight ends to face the Broncos were held to four or fewer
Fantasy points in 2012, despite Denver being the most generous to tight
ends for the year.
• Ray Rice
has run for more than 130 yards in two of his three career meetings with
the Broncos, including last year's playoff matchup, which saw Rice run
30 times for 131 yards and a score.
• In 12 career games with at
least eight targets, Torrey Smith has
produced 10-plus points eight times and averaged a whopping 13.1 points
per game.
• When Smith sees at least 10 targets in a game, he has
averaged 14.7 Fantasy points per week. With Champ Bailey likely out or
limited, look for Smith, who caught three passes for 98 yards and two
scores in his last meeting with the Broncos, to play very well in Week 1.
•
Denver running backs scored 50 Fantasy points in two meetings with the
Ravens in 2012. They ran for 293 yards, two scores and added 56 yards
receiving and another score.
• Ronnie Hillman is listed as the "starter" for Week 1 and he had the
only 10-point game of his career against the Ravens in the playoffs last
year when he ran for 83 yards and added 20 as a pass catcher. I would be
shocked if he matches 103 total yards in this game. The Denver running
back situation is tough to trust for Week 1.
• Eric Decker had 14 catches for 217 yards and a score in two meetings
with the Ravens last year, while Demaryius Thomas
was held to seven catches for 50 yards total. I am still starting
Thomas, along with Decker, Wes Welker
and Peyton Manning.
• The Denver
defense averaged 15 points in two meetings with the Ravens last year,
while the Baltimore defense produced just 8.5 per game. I'd stay away
from both in Week 1, however, as Denver is even better on offense and
their defense will be without Von Miller among others.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• In his last four games against the Vikings, Matthew Stafford is averaging 313.2 yards passing and two total
touchdowns per game.
• You are not sitting Calvin Johnson, but it is interesting to note that he has just eight
catches for 83 yards in his last two home games against the Vikings. He
does however, have 19 catches for 315 yards and three scores in the two
games at Minnesota.
• The Vikings allowed 19 catches and 163 yards
receiving to the Lions running backs last year, so look for a lot of Reggie Bush out of the backfield.
• Brandon Pettigrew has produced at least six Fantasy points in four
straight games against the Vikings. He has a touchdown and at least nine
Fantasy points in three of those four games.
• Ryan Broyles led the Lions with averages of 9.7 yards and 1.3
Fantasy points per target in 2012.
• Adrian Peterson has at least 12 Fantasy points in four straight games
against Detroit and is averaging 20 points per game during that span.
•
Greg Jennings has reached 70 yards just
once in his last six games against the Lions. Despite having Aaron Rodgers as his quarterback for those games, he has averaged
just 6.5 points per game against the Lions' generous pass defense during
that span.
• Blair Walsh
booted six field goals and averaged 11 points per game in his two
contests with Detroit in 2012. For the year, kickers averaged 8.7 points
per game against the Lions, fifth most in the NFL.
• Kyle Rudolph had his best game of 2012 with seven catches for 64
yards and a score in Week 10 against the Lions. He also had a zero point
Fantasy effort in their first meeting. The Lions did allow a tight end
to score in five of their final eight games but gave up just 53 yards to
the position in the final four weeks of the season combined (including Tony Gonzalez and Jermichael Finley).
Rudolph will start the year as he always does, dependent on a touchdown
for Fantasy relevance.
• The Lions allowed an average of 172 yards
per game to wide receivers last year (sixth most), but the Vikings
receivers produced just 212 in two games total. The Lions also allowed
double-digit receiver receptions in every game but two last year and,
yes, the Vikings were the two exceptions.
Oakland Raiders at Indianapolis Colts, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Opposing defenses averaged 13.4 points per game against the Raiders in
the second half of 2012. The Chargers defense scored 12 points in Terrelle Pryor's only NFL start.
• Jared Veldheer -- the Raiders best
lineman by far -- is out with an injury, adding another reason to really
like the Colts defense as a plug-and-play in Week 1.
• Last year,
running backs scored an average of 19.5 Fantasy points per game against
the Raiders, fifth-most in the NFL. They averaged 141 total yards and
nearly a touchdown per game and it should be noted that the Raiders gave
up nine running back rushing scores in their last nine games. Yes, I
like the starter (Ahmad Bradshaw or Vick Ballard) for the Colts as No. 2 running back in Week 1.
•
The Raiders allowed 18 touchdowns to wide receivers last year,
ninth-most in the NFL. Receivers on elite passing attacks like the Colts
averaged a very robust 25 points per game against Oakland in 2012, so
start Reggie Wayne, T.Y. Hilton and even Darrius Heyward-Bey
in deep leagues.
• In his first NFL start, Pryor threw for 150 yards
with two touchdowns and one interception. He also ran for 49 yards and a
score to finish with a 26-point Fantasy day against the Chargers in Week
17. In the preseason, Pryor ran for 131 yards and a touchdown despite
playing only 89 snaps, so he has serious leg potential, which is why I
like him as a deep sleeper this year.
• The Colts did not face any
mobile or run-oriented quarterbacks in 2012, but both Aaron Rodgers and Jake Locker
managed to top 50 yards rushing against them. Pryor will need his legs
for points in Week 1, since the Colts gave up just two passing
touchdowns over the final four games of the 2012 season and added
cornerback Greg Toler in the offseason.
•
Only one of the final six, and two of the final 10 quarterbacks to face
the Colts in 2012 produced 20 Fantasy points. Those two exceptions were Matthew Stafford and Tom Brady.
• Darren McFadden should get off to a hot start against a Colts run
defense that allowed 18.9 Fantasy points per game in 2012, seventh most.
The Colts gave up 125.2 yards (third most) on 5.2 yards per carry
(second most) last year while allowing nearly a touchdown per game.
•
Over the final four weeks of the 2012 season, including the playoffs,
the Colts gave up a ridiculous 23.75 points per game to running backs
and five different runners produced at least 10 Fantasy points. Each of
the final four teams and six of the last seven to face the Colts had at
least 100 yards rushing from their running backs.
• In Pryor's only
start, Rod Streater was the leading
receiver with four catches for 77 yards. The receiver group as a whole
accounted for just 95 yards however, which was its lowest output of the
season.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• The Patriots running backs scored a combined 85 points in two games
against the Bills last year. In each game, multiple backs produced at
least 10 points and they had four runners with at least 15 points in the
two games combined. The Patriots running backs generated 361 yards
rushing, five touchdowns rushing and added nine receptions for 96 yards
and two scores out of the backfield.
• Stevan Ridley ran for 204 yards and three scores in those two games
and Danny Woodhead (who will be
replaced by Shane Vereen) had 25 points
in the two games, thanks in large part to six catches for 69 yards and
two scores as a receiver. Wes Welker
produced at least six catches in four straight games against the Bills.
In Buffalo, he produced 25 catches for 346 yards and three scores in his
last two games alone. Danny Amendola
steps into those shoes and should do quite well in Week 1 against a
Buffalo team that has had its hands full with the Pats slot receiver.
•
New England tight ends have scored 10 times in the last three years
against the Bills. They have at least one touchdown in all six games
(yes Rob Gronkowski has scored every
time he has played Buffalo) and scored twice in four of them, making Zach Sudfeld a solid gamble in Week 1.
• Stephon Gilmore, the best cornerback in Buffalo, is out for this game,
so look for Tom Brady to light up the
Bills (it also helps Kenbrell Thompkins).
Brady averaged 29 points against the Bills last year and has multiple
scores in six straight games against them, with three-plus touchdowns in
five and 30-plus points in four of them.
• E.J. Manuel will make his NFL debut after missing most of the
preseason following a minor procedure.
• The Patriots defense
averaged a solid 12 points per game against the Bills last year and with
a rookie quarterback making his first career start under center in Week
1, they are the top defensive play.
• C.J. Spiller is the only Bill I am starting this week and it will be
his first career game as the main man versus New England. In his other
two career games with more than 10 touches against the Pats, Spiller
gained 100 total yards and score on 17 touches in 2011 and netted 131
total yards on 13 touches against them in Week 10 of last year.
• For
his career, Spiller has averaged 13.3 points per game when touching the
ball at least 20 times.
• Steve Johnson
had 109 yards and no scores in two games against the Pats in 2012.
Reaching just 50 yards in Week 1 could be a big struggle with Manuel at
quarterback.
Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• In 2012, the Jaguars surrendered an average of 154 total yards (fourth
most) and 1.1 touchdowns per game to running backs, which added up to
21.5 points per game to the position (third most in the NFL).
• Two
teams targeted their running backs 10 times against the Jaguars last
year and they totaled 19 catches for 152 yards for their backs. The Jags
also allowed four running back receiving touchdowns last year, second
most in the NFL. In other words, I expect a big game from Jamaal Charles in Week 1.
• Dwayne Bowe
enters Week 1 of the 2013 season with only four touchdowns and two games
with 100 yards receiving in his last 24 starts combined.
• The
opposing top target scored in four of the final seven games against the
Jaguars in 2012. Bowe also scored twice in his last meeting with the
Jags, although that was back in 2010.
• Only three of the final 10
quarterbacks to face the Jaguars in 2012 reached the 20-point plateau,
so don't expect fireworks from Alex Smith
in his Kansas City debut.
• Before getting injured last year, Maurice Jones-Drew produced 490 total yards and two scores in five
games, finishing that stretch as the 14th-ranked Fantasy back. He was
averaging a very healthy 4.8 yards per carry at the time and was on his
way to another solid year.
• Three of the first four and three of the
final four running back groups to face the Chiefs in 2012 produced
20-plus Fantasy points.
• Kansas City allowed 156.75 total yards per
game to opposing running backs, third most in the league.
• Five of
the last seven receiver groups to face the Chiefs scored at least 21
points (four were at 26 or better) and they allowed nine receiver scores
during that span.
• Best of all for Cecil Shorts, five of the opposing top targets scored in those final
seven games against Kansas City in 2012. With Justin Blackmon suspended, there is no doubt that Shorts, who produced
10 or more Fantasy points in seven of his nine starts a year ago, is the
main man in the Jacksonville passing game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Chicago Bears, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• The Bears defense allowed 114.2 total yards (fifth fewest in NFL) and
a league-low 0.4 touchdowns per game to running backs in 2012. It is
little wonder then that the Bears ranked second overall in terms of
Fantasy points allowed to the position, ceding just 11.3 each week.
•
Only one running back all season with fewer than 20 touches reached 10
Fantasy points against the Bears last year.
• With Giovanni Bernard and BenJarvus Green-Ellis
expected to share the running back duties early on, I'd be careful with
both of them in Week 1.
• Only four quarterbacks scored at least 20
points against the Bears last year, while nine were held to 12 points or
fewer. Four tight end groups got to 10 points against the Bears, while
eight were held to four points or fewer (and five had one point or
zero). Save Andy Dalton, Jermaine Gresham and Tyler Eifert for
another week.
• Opposing defenses scored double-digit Fantasy points
against the Bengals in six straight games to end the 2012 season.
• A.J. Green led all receivers in the NFL with a touchdown catch in 10
games in 2012. Brandon Marshall led all
receivers with 12 appearances in the Top 24 last year and was also tops
with six or more catches in 12 games.
• The Bengals held running
backs to 92 yards per game on the ground in 2012, which is solid, but
they struggled to stop them as pass catchers. The Bengals allowed six
receptions (second most) and 41.7 yards per game (eighth most) to
runners, which is great news for Matt Forte.
•
The Bengals finished 2012 by holding nine straight quarterbacks and 13
of the final 14 to less than 20 points. Peyton Manning was the lone exception during the 14-game streak that
saw the Bengals allow just 11 passing scores while intercepting 15
passes. Sorry Jay Cutler!
• In the
final nine games of the 2012 season, opposing No. 2 receivers (Alshon Jeffery) and tight ends (Martellus Bennett) combined to score exactly one touchdown total against
the Bengals.
• Speaking of Bennett, not a single tight end produced
more than seven Fantasy points against the Bengals and opposing tight
ends averaged just four points per game over the final eight games of
2012.
Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Chris Johnson ran for 91 yards
on 19 carries and finished with 114 total yards and 11 points when he
faced the Steelers in 2012. That was the second straight game and third
time in five career meetings with the Steelers that Johnson has produced
11 or more Fantasy points.
• C.J Spiller
and Fred Jackson averaged 9.0 and 8.3
yards per carry respectively behind new Titans guard Andy Levitre. With
Levitre, rookie guard Chance Warmack and Pro Football Focus top
rated run blocking tight end Delanie Walker
in the mix; Johnson will be running behind the best line of his entire
career.
• Kenny Britt had four
catches for 62 yards and a touchdown against the Steelers last year and
finished the 2012 season with 100 yards or a score in four of his final
six games once Jake Locker returned as
the starting quarterback.
• Wide receivers scored five touchdowns and
averaged 24.25 points per game against the Steelers over the final four
games of 2012. Opposing top targets had 100 yards or a touchdown in
three of those games, so Britt is a decent No. 3 receiver option this
week.
• Only four quarterbacks reached 20 points against the Steelers
last year, while eight were held to 10 or fewer. Pittsburgh finished the
year as the toughest Fantasy defense for quarterbacks, allowing just
12.5 points per game.
• The Titans allowed 20.4 points per game to
opposing quarterbacks, eighth most in the league. Big Ben is averaging
29.5 points per game against the Titans in his last two meetings (19 and
39).
• Ben Roethlisberger has
faced the Titans twice in the last two seasons and has been very solid
both times. In 2012, he threw for 363 yards and one touchdown en route
to 19 Fantasy points and in 2011 he threw for 228 yards and a
career-high five touchdowns to produce 39 points!
• The Pittsburgh
backfield situation will be a three-headed mess with Isaac Redman, Felix Jones and LaRod Stephens-Howling, so stay away until Le'Veon Bell is back or a clear No. 1 back emerges.
• The Titans
allowed 19 wide receiver scores in 2012, eighth most. The opposing top
target scored in four of the final six games against a Titans team that
allowed nine total scores and 24 points per game during that span.
• Antonio Brown has exactly six catches for 43 yards in his two games
against the Titans over the last two seasons. Mike Wallace had at least 80 yards with a score in both of those
games and is now gone to Miami. Brown is now the top target for the
Steelers and will look to build on his finish in 2012, which saw him
score in three of the final four games.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Start both quarterbacks -- Drew Brees
and Matt Ryan
• Start both tight ends
-- Jimmy Graham and Tony Gonzalez -- who averaged 15.5 and 17.5 points per game
respectively in this matchup last year.
• Start your big-time wide
receivers -- Marques Colston, Julio Jones and Roddy White -- even
though all three combined for one touchdown in these matchups a year ago.
•
Do NOT start either of the team defenses as both Atlanta and New Orleans
ranked in the bottom six in terms of points allowed to opposing Fantasy
defenses at less than seven per game.
• Darren Sproles has scored 10 or more Fantasy points in 19 of his 31
games with the Saints. However, he has just one 10-point game in the
three meetings with the Falcons. Last year, he was limited to four
points and in two 2011 games, he produced zero and 14 respectively. So,
no team has done a better job against Sproles than the Falcons, but I
would still start him in PPR leagues.
• Mark Ingram has just one touchdown in three games against the
Falcons, and has never produced more than seven Fantasy points.
• Pierre Thomas has two games with eight or more Fantasy points in his
last four meetings with the Falcons.
• Chris Ivory was the only member of the Saints to produce 10 points
against the Falcons last year, but the Saints running backs did average
22 points per game against Atlanta in 2012. In two games, the New
Orleans runners produced 250 yards rushing, two touchdowns and added 13
receptions for 88 yards.
• Steven Jackson
will take on a New Orleans run defense that allowed 22.4 Fantasy points
and 175.3 total yards to per game to running backs, both most in the NFL.
•
Lance Moore had 14 catches for 214 yards
in two games against the Falcons in 2012. He had at least seven catches
and 90 yards in both games, including a season-best 123 yards in Week 13.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Jets, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• The Jets gave up more than 100 yards rushing to running backs in 11 of
their 16 games last year. For the year they allowed the seventh most
rushing yards (115.7) and 11th most Fantasy points (17.9) per game to
running backs.
• Three of the last four starting running backs to
face the Jets have scored at least 16 Fantasy points, so expect a hot
start for Martin.
• The Jets allowed opposing Fantasy defenses to
score an average of 14.3 points last year, fourth most in the NFL. Over
the last six games of 2012, opposing defenses averaged 21 points per
game against the Jets, so the new look Bucs are a great sleeper for Week
1.
• The Jets allowed 16.6 points per game to receivers last year,
third fewest in the NFL. In 10 games last year, a receiver did not catch
a single touchdown and in only four games did a team have multiple wide
receiver touchdowns.
• Only one receiver had 10 receiving points
against the Jets over the final five weeks of the 2012 season and that's
why Vincent Jackson is a No. 3 receiver
for me in Week 1 working against Antonio Cromartie.
• Only four
secondary receivers scored 10 points against the Jets in 2012 and only
four quarterbacks produced 20 Fantasy points, so keep your expectations
in check for Mike Williams and Josh Freeman.
• Chris Ivory
will have his hands full against a Tampa Bay run defense that allowed a
league-low 71.2 yards rushing per game to opposing running backs in 2012.
•
The only possible glimmer of hope is that Tampa allowed a running back
rushing touchdown in three straight games to end the season.
• The
Jets tight ends could have success against a Tampa Bay defense that gave
up 12 points per game to the position over the final four weeks of the
year.
• Even with that being said, I am not starting any Jets in Week
1 if I can avoid it, because the Tampa pass defense will be much
improved following the additions of Darrelle Revis
and Dashon Goldson this offseason.
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• With Josh Gordon out on
suspension, look for Trent Richardson
to run it 20-plus times in Week 1, which is Fantasy gold given that he
averaged 15.2 points per game when he took at least 20 carries as a
rookie.
• Four of the final five running back groups to face the
Dolphins rushed for over 100 yards. The Fins gave up an average of 20.4
points to running backs during that span.
• Mike Wallace has been held to six catches for 77 yards combined in
his last three meetings with Joe Haden.
•
Wallace is averaging just 53 yards receiving per game over his last 25
games.
• Buster Skrine, the Browns No. 2 cornerback, allowed 751
yards (10th most) and five touchdowns (11th most) last year, so Brian Hartline is a sleeper in deep, deep leagues.
• Jordan Cameron will be a top target for the Browns this week with
Gordon out. Tight ends who saw at least seven targets averaged a solid
seven points per game against Miami in 2012.
• A tight end produced
eight or more Fantasy points in three of the final six games against the
Fins last year.
• New Miami left tackle Jonathan Martin allowed six
sacks and a league high 47 hurries in 2012. New Browns defensive
coordinator Ray Horton blitzed 47 percent of the time while coordinating
the Cardinals defense last season.
• Opposing Fantasy defenses
averaged 14.8 points per game when the Fins had to go on the road in
2012, making the Browns a sneaky Week 1 start.
• Opposing running
backs averaged 22 Fantasy points and 121 yards rushing against the
Browns over the last month of the 2012 season. Lamar Miller will hope to continue that trend into Week 1.
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
• Russell Wilson produced 11
Fantasy points against Carolina in their meeting last season, but that
was early in the year. Over the final eight games of 2012, Wilson
averaged 25.9 points per game.
• Four of the final seven quarterbacks
to face the Panthers scored at least 21 points and they averaged 27 per
game. The other three quarterbacks Carolina faced combined to score 16
Fantasy points.
• Marshawn Lynch
was held to 85 yards on 21 carries in his last meeting with the Panthers
in 2012. Carolina finished the year out holding opposing running backs
to just 52 yards rushing and 0.25 touchdowns per game over the last four
games of the season. However, every other running back that took at
least 19 carries against the Panthers last year scored at least 11
points and they averaged 17.4 per game.
• Golden Tate found the end zone against Carolina in 2012, but failed to
score 10 Fantasy points. Carolina was the sixth toughest against
receivers last year, allowing just 17.5 points per game.
• In a Week
1 start without Jonathan Stewart last
year, DeAngelo Williams managed just one
yard rushing on seven carries against the Buccaneers.
• The Carolina
running backs were held to one Fantasy point total against the Seahawks
in their Week 5 meeting as they rushed for 25 yards on 11 carries and
lost a fumble.
• Steve Smith
has scored just one touchdown in his last 11 home games. Last year he
saw 13 targets against Richard Sherman
and the Seahawks, but managed to catch only four of them for 40 yards.
This is a tough, tough matchup.
• Greg Olsen was held to just 37 yards in his last meeting with the
Hawks, but three of the final four tight ends they faced in 2012 reached
the end zone against them. Olsen is the only member of the Carolina
receiving corps I would gamble on this week.
• Cam Newton was the No. 1 Fantasy quarterback from Week 10 on last
year, scoring 26.5 points per game. He scored a season-low seven Fantasy
points against the Hawks last year and this is a very tough matchup.
Despite facing Cam, Robert Griffin III
and Colin Kaepernick last year, no
quarterback produced more than 42 rushing yards (Cam) and only Matt
Stafford ran for a touchdown. The Hawks gave up 12.7 points per game to
quarterbacks last year, third lowest in the NFL, and only one of the
last eight to face them in the regular season topped 17 points.
Arizona Cardinals at St. Louis Rams, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
• While serving as the offensive coordinator for the Colts, new Arizona
head coach Bruce Arians guided an offense that attempted 628 passes,
sixth most in the NFL. While quarterbacking an Oakland team with an
inferior receiving corps, Carson Palmer
still averaged 276 yards per game and 7.7 yards per attempt.
• The
2012 St. Louis Rams allowed only three quarterbacks all year long to
throw for multiple passing scores against them, and two of them were Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.
•
The Cardinals averaged 50 yards rushing and 2.8 yards per carry against
the Rams last year. For the year, they produced a league worst 75.2
yards per game on 3.4 yards per carry.
• Over the last eight games of
the 2012 season, the Rams allowed just one receiver group to reach 20
Fantasy points and they allowed just three receiver scores total.
• Larry Fitzgerald has not scored more than 10 Fantasy points in a game
against St. Louis since Week 11 of 2009. I am starting him anyway.
•
Eight of the 10 receiver touchdowns (tied for third fewest) allowed by
the Rams in 2012 went to secondary receivers (Michael Floyd, Andre Roberts).
•
The Cardinals were sacked a league high 58 times last year and allowed a
league-worst 16.9 points per game to opposing Fantasy defenses. The Rams
had a league-best 52 sacks and averaged 23.5 points per game against
Arizona last year, so start them.
• The Rams ran for 282 yards
against the Cards in their two games last season on a stout 4.8 yards
per carry, which is good for Daryl Richardson.
•
Chris Givens scored a touchdown and had
at least 11 Fantasy points in both games against the Cardinals last
year. In his second meeting with Zona, he caught five of his six targets
for 115 yards and a score. The opposing top receiver produced 100 yards
or a touchdown in eight of the final 10 games against the Cardinals.
•
Tight ends scored four touchdowns and produced an average of 8.4 points
per game against the Cardinals over the final eight games of 2012. The
Rams tight ends scored in both meetings with Arizona last year.
Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers, 4:25 p.m. ET
• Five of the last six quarterbacks to face the 49ers scored at least 22
Fantasy points and three of them produced 29 or more. Aaron Rodgers scored 26 and 22 in his two meetings with San Francisco
a year ago.
• Eddie Lacy could
get off to a slow start against a San Francisco defense that held the
Packers to just 73 yards rushing and 13 total Fantasy points in two
games a year ago. To be fair, Green Bay runners only took 20 rushes in
the two games combined, so you have to wonder just how confident the
coaching staff of the Packers will be running the ball against the 49ers
front seven.
• San Francisco has given up the fewest Fantasy points
per game to running backs in each of the last two seasons. They were at
10.8 per game last in 2012, up from single digits in 2011.
• James Jones had four catches for 80-plus yards and a touchdown in
both games against the 49ers last year. He was the only Green Bay
receiver to score against San Francisco, but Jordy Nelson (10) and Randall Cobb
(14) both racked up solid catch totals.
• The 49ers surrendered a
tight end touchdown in five of their final eight games in 2012. Jermichael Finley averaged 6.5 points per game against the 49ers last
year, but had one game with 10 points (Week 1) and one with three points
(playoffs).
• Colin Kaepernick
set an NFL quarterback record with 181 yards rushing against the Packers
in the playoffs en route to what would have been a 50-point Fantasy day.
Even Alex Smith put up 21 points against
the Packers last year, so look for Kap to get started quickly against
Green Bay.
• Frank Gore ran for
more than 115 yards with a touchdown in both games against the Packers
last year.
• Randy Moss and Michael Crabtree caught all three of the 49ers receiver touchdowns
against Green Bay last year. Considering that the Packers gave up a
receiver score or a 100-yard receiver to the opposing No. 1 receiver in
six straight games to close out the 2012 season, Anquan Boldin should have a golden debut.
• Vernon Davis had 40 yards receiving in both games against the Packers
last year. He scored in Week 1, but did not in the playoffs to produce
games of 10 and four points respectively. The Packers did not allow a
tight end to score in five straight games to close out the 2012 season,
but the Green Bay game was the only game in which Davis produced fewer
than 10 points in the 49ers' Super Bowl run.
• Stay away from the
49ers defense in Week 1, as they produced just 12 points in two games
against a Green Bay team that was the second toughest on opposing
defenses (5.4 points per game).
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys, Sun., 8:30 p.m. ET
• David Wilson averaged 7.5
yards per carry in the preseason and averaged a ridiculous 0.9 Fantasy
points per touch (Adrian Peterson was at 0.77) as a rookie last year.
•
In 2012, the Cowboys gave up an average of 19 points per game to
opposing running backs (sixth most) on the strength of 141 total yards
(12th most) and one rushing touchdown per game (second most).
• The
Giants have had a running back score a rushing touchdown against Dallas
in six straight games.
• The Cowboys will be without at least one
starter and maybe two on the defensive line, so this will be Wilson's
coming out party against a defense that allowed over 100 yards rushing
to running backs in six of the final seven games of 2012.
• Eli Manning struggled against the Cowboys in 2012, producing just
19 points in two games. In 2010 and 2011, Eli threw for 1,425 yards and
11 touchdowns in just four games against Big D for an average of 27.8
Fantasy points per game.
• Prior to 2012, Hakeem Nicks had never produced fewer than eight Fantasy points in a
game against the Cowboys and was averaging 13.6 per game.
• Tony Romo has produced at least 21 Fantasy points in five straight
full games against the Giants and is averaging 28 points per game during
that span.
• DeMarco Murray
ran 20 times for 131 yards in the season opener against the Giants last
year. The Giants finished the year by allowing 140 running back rushing
yards and 22.2 points per game to the position over the final five games
of the 2012 season.
• Dez Bryant
has 100 yards or a touchdown in four of his six career games against the
Giants. He has never been held below seven Fantasy points in any one
game and is averaging 11.7 per game. From Week 10 on of the 2012 season, Adrian Peterson was the only non-quarterback to outscore Bryant.
• Miles Austin scored 10-plus points in both meetings with the Giants
last year (13 and 13) and has reached double-digits in four of his last
five meetings with his division rival.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins, Mon., 6:55 p.m. ET
• The Redskins held LeSean McCoy
to 45 yards rushing in each of their two games a year ago, but thanks to
15 receptions for 144 yards, he topped 110 total yards in each game.
•
McCoy was the only running back to finish in the Top 24 at his position
in every one of his full games in 2012.
• In Chip Kelly's run first
offense, McCoy will see 20-plus carries more often than not and he
averages 17.7 points per game with 20 carries for his career. Washington
allowed 20 or more running back Fantasy points in three of their final
five games a year ago.
• Michael Vick
had one of the greatest games in Fantasy history on Monday Night
Football against the Redskins when he produced 57 points in Week 10
of the 2010 season.
• Vick didn't face the Skins in 2012, but enters
this matchup following a blistering preseason that saw him complete 28
of 38 passes for 383 yards (10.1 per attempt) with two touchdowns and
two interceptions to go along with 73 rushing yards. Washington allowed
20.8 points and 284 yards passing per game to quarterbacks in 2012, both
fourth most in the NFL.
• DeSean Jackson
was held to five yards on two catches in his only meeting with
Washington last season, but Vick was not the quarterback. With Vick
under center for a full game, Jackson has produced 14 or more Fantasy
points in two of his three games against the Skins while averaging 11.3
points per game.
• Pierre Garcon
was the 10th ranked Fantasy receiver from Week 12 on last year,
producing 486 yards and three scores over the final six games of the
season. Garcon had seven catches for 89 yards in the Week 16 matchup
with Philly.
• Washington receivers scored four times against the
Eagles in 2012, including two from Santana Moss,
who scored in each of the games. Those were the first touchdowns against
Philadelphia for Moss since 2009.
• The Eagles allowed five straight
starting running backs, including Alfred Morris
in Week 16 (91 yards and a touchdown), to score a touchdown and produce
at least 15 Fantasy points to finish the 2012 season.
• Despite
throwing only 39 passes in two games against the Eagles last year, Robert Griffin III tossed six touchdowns and produced 57 Fantasy
points. The Eagles surrendered 22.4 points per game to opposing
quarterbacks last year, third most in the NFL, thanks in large part to
giving up a league-high 33 passing scores. Four of the final seven
quarterbacks to face the Eagles scored 31 or more Fantasy points to
close out the 2012 season.
Houston Texans at San Diego Chargers, Mon., 10:20 p.m. ET
• With Arian Foster reportedly
being "eased" back into the offense, Ben Tate will play a bigger role early in the year. Tate has taken
12 or more carries in a game eight times in his career. He produced 10
or more Fantasy points in seven of the eight games (never below eight
points) with a robust average of 14.4 Fantasy points per game.
• Last
year, Foster was first among all runners with 15 appearances in the Top
24, 12 in the Top 12, 14 games of 10-plus points and 13 games with a
touchdown.
• Andre Johnson has
scored in each of the last two season openers, averaging 16 points per
game. The opposing top target has scored in three of the last four games
against San Diego.
• Three of the final four and six of the final
eight quarterbacks to face the Chargers produced at least 20 Fantasy
points. Andy Dalton came up just short
with 17 and Greg McElroy had just five.
Guess it was actually three straight and six of the last seven, which is
great for Matt Schaub.
• Owen Daniels did not score or produce five Fantasy points in five
straight games to close out the 2012 season. He did however, have 172
receiving yards, but still no touchdowns in two playoff games. The
Chargers did not allow a tight end to score in four straight games to
end the 2012 season and allowed just 5.3 points to the position for the
year, fewest in the NFL.
• Opposing defenses scored 10-plus points
against San Diego in six of the final eight games of 2012. For the year,
San Diego produced an average of 11.8 points per game for opposing
defenses, seventh most in the NFL.
• The Chargers did not score a
rushing touchdown as a team after Week 5 of the 2012 season. No, that is
not a misprint.
• Ryan Mathews
is not expected to play much on passing downs, so he will be primarily
limited to rushing totals for his Fantasy points. Mathews produced 10
Fantasy points on rushing totals in just one game in 2012. The Texans
held eight running back groups to single-digit Fantasy points in 2012
and now they get Brian Cushing back.
•
Tight ends scored five touchdowns and averaged 11 Fantasy points per
game against the Texans over the last seven weeks of the 2012 season.
Look for Antonio Gates, who was targeted
a ton in the preseason, to get off to a quick start.
• Vincent Brown has been targeted six or more times in three career games
and in those games, he has averaged nine Fantasy points per game.
Stay in touch with the most passionate Fantasy staff in the business by following us via Twitter @CBSFantasyFB . You can also follow Nathan at @nathanzegura .