Saints at Bears, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
This will be a big test for both defenses. Much has been made of the Saints defense, but aside from a Week 1 game vs. Atlanta they really haven't faced a challenging offense. The Bears at home will be tough for them unless Jay Cutler goes turnover-happy like he did last week. And Chicago's defense will be under siege against Drew Brees and his weapons. This is a defense that has yet to allow under 21 points in a game this season.
No-brainers: Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham; Matt Forte, Brandon Marshall
Darren Sproles, RB, Saints: My Projection: 10 FPTS
Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints: My Projection: 6 FPTS
A good trend
for Sproles resurfaced last week: Without Lance Moore in the lineup, Sproles saw more effective targets from
Brees. The Bears' run defense got opened up by Reggie Bush last week and could succumb to some big plays by Sproles
again. Thomas' workload is up in the air given how much the Saints tend
to pass but the Bears allowing 4.6 yards per carry and 7.2 yards per
catch over the last three weeks.
I'd start Sproles over: Trent Richardson, Bilal Powell
I'd
start Thomas over: Rashard Mendenhall,
BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Marques Colston, WR, Saints: My Projection: 11 FPTS
Let's
compare a trend with a defensive track record: Colston has played the
Bears three times in his career and has scored at least once each time
with decent yardage to boot. The Bears have allowed three No. 1 wideouts
to get at least 10 Fantasy points in three of four games (the one that
didn't was Greg Jennings of the
Vikings). Expect Colston to be in single coverage often, which helps.
I'd
start him over: Eric Decker, Reggie Wayne
Jay Cutler, QB, Bears: My Projection: 20 FPTS
The only
quarterback to post good numbers on the Saints so far is Matt Ryan. The three others -- Josh Freeman,
Carson Palmer and Ryan Tannehill -- combined for two touchdowns in their games against
the Saints. They're also mediocre Fantasy passers. Cutler has three
games this year with at least 20 Fantasy points and should be a handful
for the Saints defense.
Flow chart: Terrelle Pryor > Jay Cutler > Colin Kaepernick > Alex Smith
Martellus Bennett, TE, Bears: My Projection: 9 FPTS
The
only time we haven't seen Bennett post good numbers was when the Bears
got off to an early lead against the Steelers. They're going to have to
put the ball in the air plenty against the Saints. That's a big positive
for Bennett as the Saints have allowed two scores to tight ends this
season, including one last week to Miami's Charles Clay.
I'd start him over: Vernon Davis, Coby Fleener
Seahawks at Colts, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
I've gone back and forth on this game. Three times last year Seattle played back-to-back road games and twice had a hard time with the offenses they faced. Those specific offenses rostered an elite-level receiver that drew a ton of attention from the 'Hawks but didn't score. The other receivers did. This doesn't feel exactly the same because of Indy's diverse but iffy receiving corps. It seems unlikely this will be the week Luck's crew explodes for a big game statistically, but the Colts still have a chance to win because of their defense.
No-brainer: Marshawn Lynch
Russell Wilson, QB, Seahawks: My Projection: 12 FPTS
Indianapolis'
pass defense has yet to allow an opposing quarterback to score multiple
touchdowns. One has posted more than 225 passing yards. After the Colts
did a great job containing Colin Kaepernick,
it's pretty easy to see them doing the same to Wilson, who frankly has
only been a swell Fantasy option at home against the lowly Jaguars.
I'd
rather start: Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco
Andrew Luck, QB, Colts: My Projection: 15 FPTS
It'll
take a leap of faith to start Luck. The stats paint a clear picture to
stay away -- the Seahawks have allowed one passer to throw multiple
touchdowns and over 250 yards this season (Matt Schaub last week) and
have at least two interceptions in each game. True -- two of the three
quarterbacks the Seahawks allowed multiple touchdowns to last year came
in the back half of consecutive road games. But Luck hasn't been in
perfect sync with his offense and the team hasn't been as aggressive
downfield as we had hoped. It doesn't help that Luck hasn't thrown
two-plus touchdowns in consecutive games since Weeks 3 and 4 -- last
year.
I'd rather start: Brian Hoyer,
Matt Schaub
Trent Richardson, RB, Colts: My Projection: 10 FPTS
Richardson
is a Fantasy starter kind of by default. The Colts are committed to
giving him the ball and he'll play a ton (20 carries over 55 snaps last
week). Seattle's run defense is among the best but it couldn't contain a
heavy dose of Arian Foster last week
(171 total yards and a touchdown on 33 touches). Richardson shouldn't be
expected to do that well but he should be involved in the Colts' game
plan.
Flow chart: DeMarco Murray
> Darren Sproles > Trent Richardson > Chris Johnson > C.J. Spiller
Reggie Wayne, WR, Colts: My Projection: 9 FPTS
It's
tough to trust any receiver against the Seahawks -- they've allowed only
eight to get 10-plus Fantasy points in their last 22 games. Andre Johnson got there last week but needed overtime to get there
(he had 91 yards in regulation). Wayne is clearly the top target in
Indianapolis and will warrant close coverage.
Flow chart: Justin Blackmon > James Jones > Reggie Wayne > Hakeem Nicks
T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts: My Projection: 6 FPTS
A look at
last week's game saw Hilton and Luck not be on the same page on a couple
of plays. Several of Luck's targets to Hilton were deep but only one
long pass was close to being a completion. While it's vital for Hilton
to get going, the physical style of the Seahawks cornerbacks makes it
hard to see him breaking out this week.
I'd rather start: Steve Smith, Dwayne Bowe
Coby Fleener, TE, Colts: My Projection: 8 FPTS
The
Seahawks have allowed seven scores to tight ends over their last 22
games. Of those eight tight ends who scored, only two can be considered
top-tier pass-first threats (the likes of Tony Gonzalez and Aaron Hernandez).
The odds are against Fleener but it's worth noting that he's been
awesome in the two games Luck has had to throw more than 30 times this
year. This should be one of those games.
Flow chart: Jared Cook > Owen Daniels > Coby Fleener > Dallas Clark
Chiefs at Titans, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
The timing couldn't be better for the Chiefs. With Jake Locker out, Kansas City will take on Ryan Fitzpatrick. That should make for an easy game plan: Focus on containing Chris Johnson and don't let the Titans' receivers beat you deep. Chiefs defensive coordinator Bob Sutton, formerly a long-standing member of the Jets, is familiar with Fitzpatrick from their battles in the AFC East.
No-brainers: Jamaal Charles
Alex Smith, QB, Chiefs: My Projection: 18 FPTS
Smith has
been great for Fantasy: Three games with at least 20 Fantasy points and
at least 25 rush yards in every game. We've seen his passing yardage
improve every single week -- that might not continue against the Titans,
who have allowed just one passer to fling multiple scores so far this
year. But Smith's smart, steady play should still give him a chance to
be good this week.
Flow chart: Eli Manning > Matt Schaub > Alex Smith > Andrew Luck
Dwayne Bowe, WR, Chiefs: My Projection: 7 FPTS
Yes, Bowe
scored last week. It was in garbage time. Before the score he had three
grabs for 24 yards. So, no, I'm still not buying Bowe as a legit Fantasy
threat. But I am buying the Titans -- they have given up one touchdown
to a receiver over their last three games, and it was in overtime in a
brouhaha with the Texans. Only one receiver has topped 80 yards against
the Titans all year.
I'd rather start: Alshon Jeffery, Vincent Brown
Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: My Projection: 8 FPTS
Johnson
dared owners to not start him if we
thought he was "sorry." This could be a matchup to
take his advice. Aside from LeSean McCoy,
the Chiefs have contained every running back they've faced to six
Fantasy points or less! Johnson has maxed out at nine Fantasy points
through four weeks and will surely be the focus of Kansas City's defense
here given the Titans' situation at quarterback. It took Johnson until
Week 7 last season to score his first touchdown. "Sorry" indeed!
I'd
rather start: David Wilson, Danny Woodhead
Nate Washington, WR, Titans: My Projection: 8 FPTS
Kendall Wright, WR, Titans: My Projection: 4 FPTS
Kansas City
has been susceptible to big games by elite receivers (Dez Bryant, Victor Cruz) but
everyone else they've faced they've contained (including DeSean Jackson in a Thursday night game). Hard to have confidence in
these guys; Washington's veteran status gives him an edge over Wright.
No.
3 WR Flow chart: Mike Wallace > Nate Washington > Jeremy Kerley
> Austin Pettis > Kendall Wright
Jaguars at Rams, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
This is the perfect opponent for the Rams to kick-start their spread offense against. Yeah, they'll try to run the ball a good amount here but the combination of a weakish pass rush and a legitimately poor secondary should mean good numbers for a Rams offense in desperate need of a feel-good game.
Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jaguars: My Projection: 6 FPTS
Consider
this my no-confidence vote: The Rams have allowed four running backs to
post 10-plus Fantasy points -- including two Niners last week -- and yet
I still struggle to find Jones-Drew a reliable player. He's averaged 3.0
yards per carry or less in every game and has no more than 62 yards in a
game this season. And, by the way, the Jaguars traded away trusted left
tackle Eugene Monroe and will start an
undrafted free agent at right tackle.
I'd rather start: Knowshon Moreno, Jason Snelling
Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars: My Projection: 10 FPTS
It's
a risk to start any receiver catching passes from Blaine Gabbert, but Blackmon is one who will sorely help him in the
intermediate area. Receivers not named Cecil Shorts have averaged 13.3 targets per game from Jags
quarterbacks. Assume most of those targets (and maybe some that went to
Shorts too) now head Blackmon's way. I don't know if he'll be
sensational, but against a depleted Rams pass defense that's allowed six
scores to receivers through four games, he's worth a shot.
I'd
start him over: Julian Edelman, Cecil Shorts
Cecil Shorts, WR, Jaguars: My Projection: 8 FPTS
Maybe
Blackmon's return helps Shorts see lighter coverage. He got plenty of
targets last season with Blackmon on the field. But the bigger issue
remains Gabbert as his quarterback. Shorts was targeted 23 times by
Gabbert and caught 10 passes. If that ratio remains true and his targets
sink, we're probably looking at four or five catches for Shorts this
week.
I'd rather start: Anquan Boldin,
James Jones
Sam Bradford, QB, Rams: My Projection: 18 FPTS
When
Bradford studies the Jaguars leading up to the game he'll see a defense
that's allowed at least two scores to three of four quarterbacks. His
Fantasy owners will see a pass defense that's yielded at least 20
Fantasy points to three of four starters. Bradford was a mess last week
in the face of a tough 49ers defense. The Jaguars (eight sacks this
year) sport a much softer challenge. He should be considered a
borderline starter.
I'd rather start: Eli Manning, Matt Schaub
Daryl Richardson, RB, Rams: My Projection: 4 FPTS
Isaiah Pead, RB, Rams: My Projection: 4 FPTS
Jacksonville's run
defense has allowed 12-plus Fantasy points to three of four starting
running backs they've faced. St. Louis' run offense doesn't boast a
qualified running back capable of being effective over 20 touches.
Richardson tweeted he lost the starting job but still should work as a
passing downs back. If there's a back to stash it's Pead, after coach
Jeff Fisher said he's going to get some opportunities this week.
I'd
rather start: LeGarrette Blount, Bernard Pierce
Austin Pettis, WR, Rams: My Projection: 7 FPTS
Tavon Austin, WR, Rams: My Projection: 7 FPTS
Chris Givens, WR, Rams: My Projection: 6 FPTS
Expect the Rams'
passing game to undergo some enhancements after struggling last week and
having time to fix things. The biggest complaint about the offense is
that Bradford doesn't chuck it deep. The Jaguars secondary is perfect to
test that against as they've allowed six scores to wideouts through four
games. Givens is an established deep threat but Pettis looks like
Bradford's favorite receiver while Austin still warrants use because of
the investment the Rams made in him. I wouldn't feel comfortable
starting any of these guys, but we should learn something from them this
week.
I'd rather start: Brian Hartline,
Marlon Brown
Jared Cook, TE, Rams: My Projection: 8 FPTS
The Jaguars
have given up three scores to tight ends over the last two weeks. Their
safeties are either backups or rookies and don't have the size to fight
with Cook. We've seen Cook underwhelm the last three weeks but the
matchup and his targets still make him fairly appealing.
Flow
chart: Greg Olsen > Martellus Bennett > Jared Cook > Coby Fleener > Jason Witten
Lions at Packers, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
In years past this matchup has had the look of a shootout. Many people will likely figure the same thing to happen here -- and it could -- but it remains to be seen just how good the Packers offensive line is following the bye week. Led by Ndamukong Suh, the Lions defensive line is playing great and could make things tough on Aaron Rodgers, much like the Bengals did in Week 3. The Lions have only nine sacks so far this year but got three last week. Rodgers has been sacked 10 times in three games. It's going to be a factor.
No-brainers: Matthew Stafford, Reggie Bush, Calvin Johnson; Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley
Ryan Broyles, WR, Lions: My Projection: 7 FPTS
The good
news is that Broyles played a ton of snaps last week -- 41 of a possible
66. The bad news is that he had one pass thrown his way and it was off
target. The Lions seem to be easing Broyles back into action, first
keeping him benched until last week when he started to pick up playing
time. The targets have nowhere to go but up; the only problem is that
he's no better than the third read on a given play.
I'd rather
start: Vincent Brown, Jeremy Kerley
Brandon Pettigrew, TE, Lions: My Projection: 6 FPTS
So
was Pettigrew's uptick in targets last week because of the matchup
against the Bears or because the injury to Nate Burleson opened up some opportunities? Pettigrew faces another
favorable defense as tight ends have scored on the Packers three times
total in three games. Maybe Pettigrew figures into this game because of
Green Bay's relative shortcomings against his position. Pettigrew has
never scored on the Packers.
Bye-week TE Flow chart: Dallas Clark > Kellen Winslow > Brandon Pettigrew > Scott Chandler
Eddie Lacy, RB, Packers: My Projection: 13 FPTS
Running
backs against the Lions have posted at least 70 yards and a touchdown in
every game. That's hard to overlook. After watching Lacy rumble to start
the season and then get plenty of rest, he should have fresh legs and
several opportunities to be a very good Fantasy rusher.
I'd start
him over: Trent Richardson, Bilal Powell
James Jones, WR, Packers: My Projection: 9 FPTS
Jones
has 20 targets in his last two games, catching 15 of them for 212 yards
and a touchdown and two games with at least nine Fantasy points in each.
The Lions allowed their first two touchdowns to receivers last week --
both were non-No. 1 options. Their secondary is banged up, making Jones
one of the four obvious Packers candidates to benefit from their suspect
play.
I'd start him over: Reggie Wayne,
Mike Wallace, Hakeem Nicks
Patriots at Bengals, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
It's going to be interesting to see how the Patriots stack up against the run without Vince Wilfork. Veteran Tommy Kelly will lead the line and while he has some good ability left, the reality is that the Patriots might struggle against the run for the foreseeable future. Expect the Bengals to test it early.
Tom Brady, QB, Patriots: My Projection: 20 FPTS
Brady's
pretty much an obvious starter. He's found his chemistry with Kenbrell Thompkins, retained it with Julian Edelman and should fare moderately well, even in the face of a
very good Bengals front seven (the secondary is still a little
banged-up). It will be key for Brady to work on quick routes given the
push the Bengals will get from their defensive front.
I'd start
him over: Eli Manning, Colin Kaepernick
LeGarrette Blount, RB, Patriots: My Projection: 8 FPTS
Brandon Bolden, RB, Patriots: My Projection: 6 FPTS
I'm
expecting a pretty basic split between these two: Blount to handle the
running downs, Bolden to handle the passing downs. The Bengals run
defense is allowing 4.2 yards per carry over the last three weeks but
have given up just two touchdowns to running backs -- one from 1 yard
out and the other from 2 yards out. That's in Blount's wheel house.
Flow
chart: Lamar Miller > LeGarrette Blount > Knowshon Moreno > Pierre Thomas > Brandon Bolden
Kenbrell Thompkins, WR, Patriots: My Projection: 11 FPTS
Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots: My Projection: 10 FPTS
The track
record for receivers against the Bengals is bleak. Only one -- Brandon Marshall -- has posted 10-plus Fantasy points against them.
This defense contained all of the Packers receivers two weeks ago and
held Josh Gordon in check last week,
even with a depleted secondary. Expect a modest receiving average from
both receivers with Thompkins the better red zone threat and Edelman the
high-catch target.
Flow chart: Marques Colston > Kenbrell Thompkins
> Justin Blackmon > Julian Edelman > Anquan Boldin
Andy Dalton, QB, Bengals: My Projection: 18 FPTS
Dalton
can't be trusted. He was a mess last week against the Browns and hasn't
been close to improving as a passer. Even with the team surrounding him
with weapons he's not effective enough and the play calling hasn't
helped either. If the Patriots take A.J. Green
away with double coverage, who could even believe Dalton could make them
pay with the other guys around him? The Pats have allowed two
quarterbacks to toss two touchdowns against them this year -- one is Matt Ryan last week.
I'd rather start: Sam Bradford, Alex Smith
Giovani Bernard, RB, Bengals: My Projection: 12 FPTS
BenJarvus Green-Ellis, RB, Bengals: My Projection: 4 FPTS
Both
guys should benefit from the absence of Vince Wilfork in the middle of the Patriots defensive line. Even
before the Wilfork injury, running backs posted 10-plus Fantasy points
in three straight. Bernard had 16 touches last week and dominated snaps
between the two of them.
I'd start Bernard over: DeMarco Murray, Darren Sproles
I'd
rather start over Green-Ellis: Rashad Jennings, LeGarrette Blount
A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: My Projection: 11 FPTS
Bill
Belichick is probably going to aim to take Green out of the Bengals'
game plan with double teams and bracket coverage. It doesn't mean Green
won't get his opportunities, but it might mean he won't have a massive
game. Pats haven't allowed a score to a receiver in three straight weeks.
I'd
start him over: Larry Fitzgerald, DeSean Jackson
Eagles at Giants, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
Talk about desperation, these NFC East powerhouses have one win combined. I really like the Giants' chances in this game. One good thing they've done on defense is contain the opposing team's top receiver. It might mean just a good -- not great -- game for DeSean Jackson. The Giants are also working to find ways to put up points on offense -- taking on an Eagles defense that has been destroyed by pretty much everyone they've faced helps the cause.
No-brainers: LeSean McCoy; Victor Cruz
Michael Vick, QB, Eagles: My Projection: 23 FPTS
Vick
should go off: The Giants have allowed 10 passing touchdowns this year,
including three each to their last two opponents, Cam Newton and Alex Smith. Hint:
Both are running quarterbacks who averaged at least 5.0 yards per carry.
Hint: Both posted at least 30 Fantasy points against the G-Men! The
Giants probably have planned for the Eagles' tendencies under Chip
Kelly, but it doesn't mean they can defend it well.
I'd start him
over: Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo
DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles: My Projection: 11 FPTS
No. 1
receivers have not done well against the Giants. Last week Dwayne Bowe was held in serious check until he got free for a nice
touchdown against cornerback Terrell Thomas.
D-Jax has one touchdown in his last five against the Giants, a sign the
team prepares heavily for him. Despite totaling 96 yards in his last two
games combined, I think he's too good to sit.
I'd start him over: Marques Colston, Kenbrell Thompkins
Brent Celek, TE, Eagles: My Projection: 5 FPTS
The
Giants are among the worst against tight ends, allowing one to score at
least one touchdown in three of four games. That's the kind of stat that
makes Brent Celek an interesting Fantasy
play. It just hurts him that he has only 15 targets on the year.
I'd
start him over: Kellen Winslow, Brandon Pettigrew
Eli Manning, QB, Giants: My Projection: 19 FPTS
The two
red flags with Manning are his ridiculous turnovers -- 10 through four
games! -- and his offensive line. Even the Eagles' defense should be
able to get close to Manning, negating some of the positive matchup.
Philadelphia has allowed multiple touchdowns to three of the four
quarterbacks they've faced, putting up a fight against only Alex Smith in a Thursday night game. With his back against the wall
at home against a terrible secondary, Manning should have a huge game,
but he's had pretty good matchups before this season and has gotten
clobbered. I think there is far less risk in using him this week
compared to last with a little more reward.
Flow chart: Terrelle Pryor > Brian Hoyer > Eli Manning > Colin Kaepernick
David Wilson, RB, Giants: My Projection: 10 FPTS
The
Giants' release of running back Da'Rel Scott
signals that Wilson's workload is about to get bigger. There's no way
they can be honest with themselves and give Brandon Jacobs more touches -- he's as slow as a cement truck. Wilson
averaged 4.2 yards per carry last week and has had six rushes for nine
or more yards in his last two games (make it eight if you include
penalized plays). With the Eagles giving up a rushing score in three of
four weeks to running backs and at least 14 Fantasy points to rushers
each of the last two weeks, there's room for optimism. If Wilson stinks
this week then it's over.
I'd start him over: Chris Johnson, Lamar Miller, any
Chargers RB
Hakeem Nicks, WR, Giants: My Projection: 8 FPTS
The good
news is that Nicks is playing a ton and getting a lot of passes thrown
his way -- 26 on the season. The bad news is that Nicks isn't doing
anything with all of these opportunities. He has 12 catches, none for
touchdowns, and has barely more yards in his last three games than he
had in Week 1. The Eagles allowed four touchdowns to receivers last
week, seven in the last three weeks and nine on the season. Of the nine
wideouts the Eagles have faced this year with five or more catches, only
three failed to get to 10-plus Fantasy points. Nicks is worth starting
as at least a third receiver.
Flow chart: Torrey Smith > Hakeem Nicks > Cecil Shorts > Mike Wallace
Ravens at Dolphins, Sun., 1 p.m. ET
Last week, the Ravens play calling went a little too pass happy against a Bills defense that wasn't too good against the pass. The result was a loss with Joe Flacco throwing five interceptions, though not all were his fault. Maybe it was because Ray Rice was banged up, maybe it was because the matchup dictated it. Regardless, it's been a hot topic in Baltimore all week and it should be expected that the Ravens give a big dose of the run this week, especially with Rice off of the injury report.
Joe Flacco, QB, Ravens: My Projection: 13 FPTS
Flacco
hasn't had a good Fantasy game since Week 1, and even that was marred by
turnovers. Miami's pass defense has gone from hot to cold after Drew Brees torched them for four touchdowns last week. Three of four
opponents have passed for at least 275 yards and the last two have
tossed multiple touchdowns. Starting Flacco this week is risky but with
games coming up against the Packers and Steelers, there are some
opportunities for him to be productive.
I'd rather start: Andy Dalton, Ryan Tannehill
Ray Rice, RB, Ravens: My Projection: 14 FPTS
Bernard Pierce, RB, Ravens: My Projection: 4 FPTS
Rice is still
a pretty obvious start but some people might be nervous to use him after
last week. He's healthy and should see the bulk of the work with Pierce,
who is also not on the injury report, getting around half as many
touches. The Dolphins have allowed four touchdowns to running backs in
their last three games, two by ground and two by air. Thanks to that,
they've given up at least 13 Fantasy points to the primary running back
each of the three weeks.
I'd start Rice over: DeMarco Murray, Trent Richardson
Low-end
RB flow chart: Rashad Jennings > Bernard Pierce > BenJarvus Green-Ellis
> any Rams RB
Torrey Smith, WR, Ravens: My Projection: 9 FPTS
Smith
was awesome last week because of a soft matchup and a Ravens game plan
that ignored the run. Things are different this week. The Ravens will
likely overreact to the lack of running last week and it might serve
them well because no receiver has found the end zone against the
Dolphins this year. Three receivers have had at least nine Fantasy
points and two have had at least 11 thanks to some nice yardage
production. That might be the most to expect from Smith.
Flow
chart: James Jones > Anquan Boldin > Torrey Smith > Alshon Jeffery
Marlon Brown, WR, Ravens: My Projection: 7 FPTS
The
thing to like about Brown is the three touchdowns he has through four
games. But the yardage hasn't been pretty. He's been more of a short-
and intermediate-type receiver, not the field stretcher like Smith is.
Assuming he plays, the expectations have to be realistic.
I'd
rather start: Nate Washington, Denarius Moore
Dallas Clark, TE, Ravens: My Projection: 8 FPTS
If
there's one thing we learned from the Ravens' pass-happy game plan last
week it's that they pay attention to their opponents' weaknesses and
statistical trends. In that case, Clark should see some success. Miami
has allowed a touchdown to a tight end in every game this year (six
total!). The list includes top-flight superstars and role players who
happen to be open near the goal line. Clark has seen seven or more
targets and has posted four or more receptions in three of four games
this season. He's a sleeper.
I'd start him over: Jason Witten, Charles Clay
Ryan Tannehill, QB, Dolphins: My Projection: 14 FPTS
Whatever
preseason excitement there was for Tannehill is dwindling fast. He's
been sacked a ton, he's not even close to maximizing his plays with Mike Wallace and he's posted one game in four with multiple
touchdowns. That's not a good thing as the Ravens have allowed one
passing touchdown -- that's it -- in their last three games.
I'd
rather start: Brian Hoyer, Alex Smith
Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins: My Projection: 8 FPTS
I'm
not a Dolphins coach but if I were, I'd use a lot more of Miller. It's
so evident he's the most electric back the team has on the roster but he
played on just 57 pct. of the snaps last week and had one second-half
carry. Baltimore allowed its first rush touchdown and first
10-plus-point game to a running back last week (Fred Jackson) but it's still allowing under 4.0 yards per carry to
rushers on the year.
Flow chart: Ryan Mathews > Lamar Miller > Knowshon Moreno > DeAngelo Williams
Mike Wallace, WR, Dolphins: My Projection: 8 FPTS
Brian Hartline, WR, Dolphins: My Projection: 7 FPTS
Wallace is
fourth on the team in receiving yards and is averaging 11.7 yards per
catch. Miami has to find ways to get him more active like they did at
Indianapolis. Hartline leads Miami in every passing category --
including targets -- and has posted 10-plus Fantasy points every other
week. The Ravens have been weaker against receivers on the road than at
home but they've ultimately allowed just one touchdown to a wideout in
their last three (Robert Woods last
week).
Flow chart: Hakeem Nicks
> Mike Wallace > Brian Hartline > Ryan Broyles
Charles Clay, TE, Dolphins: My Projection: 6 FPTS
Clay
has been very involved in Miami's offense, getting at least 40 yards per
game with two total touchdowns in his last three. The Ravens have been
lights out against tight ends since Week 1.
I'd rather start: Owen Daniels, Garrett Graham
Panthers at Cardinals, Sun., 4:05 p.m. ET
Both running games face tough matchups -- this might come down to which quarterback makes the most plays. The Cardinals are coming off a furious rally at Tampa Bay to notch their second win of the season while the Panthers are off a bye and their first win. Carson Palmer has had a hard time being effective against tough pass rushes and the Panthers (10 sacks through three games) are no slouch.
No-brainer: Larry Fitzgerald
Cam Newton, QB, Panthers: My Projection: 23 FPTS
The
only quarterback to not total 275-plus yards and multiple touchdowns
against the Cards this season is rookie Mike Glennon. That's a good sign for Newton, who in his last game
looked more like the passer we've come to love in Fantasy.
I'd
start him over: Tony Romo, Tom Brady
DeAngelo Williams, RB, Panthers: My Projection: 7 FPTS
Count
the Cardinals as one of the best run defenses in the NFL. They haven't
allowed a touchdown to a running back and no one they've faced has
posted 10 Fantasy points. Williams hasn't scored yet this year but has
found at least 80 rushing yards through three weeks. Put him in the mix
at Flex.
Flow chart: Lamar Miller
> Knowshon Moreno > DeAngelo Williams > Maurice Jones-Drew
Steve Smith, WR, Panthers: My Projection: 7 FPTS
Only
two of the four touchdowns Arizona has allowed to receivers have gone to
No. 1 options, and in the case of both it was Calvin Johnson. The Cards have shut down the likes of Marques Colston and Vincent Jackson,
allowing only Megatron to exceed 10 Fantasy points this year. Smith
might play decoy again much like he did in Week 3. He hasn't had more
than 52 yards in a game so far.
I'd rather start: Denarius Moore, Nate Washington
Greg Olsen, TE, Panthers: My Projection: 14 FPTS
While
receivers have struggled against the Cardinals, tight ends have
dominated. Jared Cook and Jimmy Graham each scored twice against Carolina, the only two to get
more than three receptions against them. Olsen is practically the
Panthers' No. 1 receiver, leading the team in catches and yards. I like
his chances to be very good this week.
I'd start him over: Jermichael Finley, Vernon Davis
Carson Palmer, QB, Cardinals: My Projection: 13 FPTS
Palmer
is wavering on must-sit status because he's been getting harassed behind
his patchwork offensive line. It's impacting his completion percentage
and touchdown production (two scores in his last three games). The
Panthers are going to come after him in an attempt to force some
turnovers.
I'd rather start: Alex Smith,
Andy Dalton
Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Cardinals: My Projection: 5 FPTS
The
Panthers' run defense has been outstanding in two games, deplorable in
one. The one game was at Buffalo, their only road game. That's the only
factor that helps Mendenhall as he's otherwise been pretty horrible,
posting six Fantasy points or less in three of four games. We could be
getting close to seeing Andre Ellington
get more playing time.
I'd rather start: Pierre Thomas, both Falcons RBs
Broncos at Cowboys, Sun., 4:25 p.m. ET
Everyone is expecting a high-scoring game, and I think we'll get it. The Cowboys have allowed 10 passing touchdowns already, including three last week to Philip Rivers and four in Week 1 to Eli Manning. Peyton is going to do his thing. The Broncos have allowed half as many passing touchdowns -- including one each of their last three games -- but Romo is the toughest quarterback they'll face this season.
No-brainers: Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Julius Thomas; Dez Bryant
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Broncos: My Projection: 7 FPTS
Moreno's
the toughest Bronco to project because even in tough matchups he could
find a way to score. Really that's the way he's been so productive in
Fantasy -- he's had one game over 100 total yards and two under 70. The
plus side is that he's averaged over 6.0 yards per carry in two of his
last three and has seen a steady amount of work, typically between 12
and 16 touches. So, can he score on the Cowboys? It'll be tough, as they
haven't allowed a rushing touchdown to a back this year (but three to
RBs on passes including two last week) and 3.8 yards per carry.
Hopefully the yardage Moreno pieces together will be enough to salvage
his game.
Flow chart: Eddie Lacy
> Bilal Powell > Knowshon Moreno > Maurice Jones-Drew
Eric Decker, WR, Broncos: My Projection: 10 FPTS
You're
going to go with Decker regardless but the matchup isn't ideal. The
Cowboys have done mostly well against outside receivers -- only one has
scored on them through four weeks. Two have posted over 100 yards and
those were both Giants players in Week 1. It is fair to say that Dallas
hasn't played an offense loaded with receivers since Week 1, though.
I'd
start him over: Julian Edelman, Reggie Wayne
Tony Romo, QB, Cowboys: My Projection: 21 FPTS
Most
people will go with Romo just because he's their only option. The
Broncos' pass defense has been really solid this year, owning more
interceptions (six) than touchdowns allowed (five). Two of four
quarterbacks have hit 20 Fantasy points against Denver but the two that
didn't were Eli Manning and Michael Vick last week. Romo's cadre of weapons combined with the 'Boys
having to keep up on the scoreboard should mean lots of passing. He's
thrown two-plus scores in six straight at home.
I'd start him
over: Tom Brady, Jay Cutler
DeMarco Murray, RB, Cowboys: My Projection: 10 FPTS
The
Broncos have allowed eight touchdowns to running backs this season, the
most in football. But that's due to two fullbacks and a third-down back
catching touchdown passes along with goal-line plunges from non-starters
and a touchdown throw from Darren McFadden.
Only one legitimate Fantasy starting running back -- Ray Rice -- has found his way to over 10 Fantasy points against
Denver by traditional means. The Broncos are allowing 2.7 yards per
carry and that's with teams averaging just under 20 carries per game
against them. Murray should start on rep alone but there's some risk.
I'd
start him over: Trent Richardson, Chris Johnson
Jason Witten, TE, Cowboys: My Projection: 7 FPTS
Witten's
owners have noticed his precipitous drop in production since Week 1.
That's a case of the worst-case scenario coming true -- Witten's never
been a big touchdown guy and that means he has to get by on big yardage
to keep his role as a top Fantasy tight end. He's had 67 yards or less
in three straight. Meanwhile Denver hasn't allowed a tight end to score
yet this year; Dallas Clark did the best
against them with 87 yards in a sloppy Week 1 performance (Clark should
have done better). Since then tight ends have been really limited. This
could be tough for Witten.
I'd rather start: Coby Fleener, Dallas Clark
Texans at 49ers, Sun., 8:30 p.m. ET
These teams are incredibly similar: Both love to run the ball, both have terrific defenses. But I'd say the Texans have a better receiving corps and that could be enough to give them an edge. The Texans' utilization of their tight ends and running backs as receivers make covering them a major chore for the Niners.
No-brainers: Arian Foster, Andre Johnson; Frank Gore
Matt Schaub, QB, Texans: My Projection: 18 FPTS
After Aaron Rodgers ripped the Niners for three scores in Week 1 the Niners
pass defense has held opposing quarterbacks to one touchdown each over
the last three games. I don't know if the defense we saw last week was
the reason for Sam Bradford's bad game
against the Niners -- he made a lot of terrible throws. You'd think
Schaub would be better but you go back to that interception he threw in
the fourth quarter last week and you'd think again. Schaub can throw two
touchdowns but I don't know if he can deliver big otherwise.
I'd
rather start: Eli Manning, Colin Kaepernick
Owen Daniels, TE, Texans: My Projection: 8 FPTS
Garrett Graham, TE, Texans: My Projection: 6 FPTS
The matchup
says these guys could struggle -- aside from allowing two touchdowns to
the position over four weeks the Niners have allowed an average of 35.5
yards per game to tight ends. But the Texans lean on these guys to move
chains and score points. Daniels has delivered seven or more Fantasy
points in three of four and Graham has scored eight or more Fantasy
points in three of four, thanks to a steady diet of touchdowns.
I'd
start Daniels over: Coby Fleener, Dallas Clark
I'd start Graham over: Kellen Winslow, Brandon Pettigrew
Colin Kaepernick, QB, 49ers: My projection: 19 FPTS
The
Texans have done a nice job erasing tight ends and Vernon Davis is playing hurt. The Texans also have the cornerbacks to
keep Anquan Boldin under wraps, though
it will mean scheming to contain him when he lines up in the slot. If
those guys can't get going -- and if the Niners stay in love with their
run game -- then Kap's not going to have big stats.
Flow chart: Terrelle Pryor > Eli Manning > Colin Kaepernick > Andrew Luck
Anquan Boldin, WR, 49ers: My Projection: 9 FPTS
I think
the Niners' chances in this game hinge on Boldin. I've gone on and on
about how receivers in the slot can exploit Texans cornerback Brice McCain. That's a nice matchup for Boldin if he indeed gets it
in single coverage. The Texans haven't allowed a touchdown to a receiver
since Week 2 but were susceptible to slot receivers in their first two
games.
I'd start him over: Reggie Wayne,
Steve Johnson, Steve Smith
Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers: My Projection: 9 FPTS
Davis
scored last week but had under 20 yards to go with it. That would be
considered great against the Texans, who have held every tight end
they've faced so far to seven Fantasy points or less. Davis should get
to them for more but not one of his typical monster games.
I'd
rather start: Martellus Bennett, Greg Olsen
Chargers at Raiders, Sun., 11:35 p.m. ET
The Chargers defense stinks and it's could get worse. Losing veteran pass rusher Dwight Freeney means one less guy to attack the quarterback. They enter this matchup ranked 25th vs. the run and 29th vs. the pass. This would be an epic matchup for Darren McFadden had he been healthy but his absence should give Terrelle Pryor plenty of chances to make some plays.
No-brainers: Antonio Gates
Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: My Projection: 22 FPTS
Rivers
has over 30 Fantasy points in three of his last four! You'd have to have
a really good passer to sit him at this point. Both of the quarterbacks
to play at Oakland so far this season have each thrown just one
touchdown, but in the Raiders' other games quarterbacks have torched
them. Expect Rivers to go to town. Rivers has thrown three touchdowns in
two of his last three against the Raiders.
I'd start him over: Tony Romo, Tom Brady
Danny Woodhead, RB, Chargers: My Projection: 8 FPTS
Ryan Mathews, RB, Chargers: My Projection: 8 FPTS
Both
runners should have good weeks. Oakland has allowed a running back to
get at least 13 Fantasy points in each of its last two. The Raiders have
given up 8.3 yards per catch and 4.2 yards per carry so far this season.
Woodhead remains the back with more upside on a week to week basis,
though Mathews has some potential to kill the clock a little bit if the
Chargers hold a fourth quarter lead.
RB flow chart: David Wilson > Danny Woodhead > Chris Johnson > Ryan Mathews > Knowshon Moreno
Eddie Royal, WR, Chargers: My Projection: 4 FPTS
We're
pretty much at the point of giving up on Royal. After a hot start where
he remained involved in the Chargers offense, he's been cast aside. In
Weeks 1 and 2 he scored five touchdowns. In Weeks 3 and 4 he totaled
five targets. Only Wes Welker has
thrived as a slot receiver against the Raiders.
I'd rather start: Austin Pettis, T.Y. Hilton
Terrelle Pryor, QB, Raiders: My Projection: 21 FPTS
Every
quarterback to play the Chargers has totaled at least two touchdowns.
Three of the four quarterbacks to play the Chargers has thrown for 299
yards or more. San Diego has one interception this year. Pryor has
gotten you to 20 or 21 Fantasy points in two of three starts. He should
be at least that good this week. If you have the guts, start him.
I'd
start him over: Tom Brady, Eli Manning
Rashad Jennings, RB, Raiders: My Projection: 5 FPTS
Marcel Reece, RB, Raiders: My Projection: 4 FPTS
If Reece is
active as expected he'll take work away from Jennings. That includes
catches, an area Jennings excelled in last week with Matt Flynn at
quarterback. Pryor has targeted running backs 19 times over 81 pass
attempts, a decent 23 pct., so he will throw to them. Jennings has been
a major disappointment whenever he's been given an opportunity. He's not
a great player. I'd be nervous or desperate to start him.
I'd
rather start: Jacquizz Rodgers, Brandon Jacobs, Brandon Bolden
Denarius Moore, WR, Raiders: My Projection: 12 FPTS
In
four games with Pryor as the Oakland starter, Moore has a touchdown in
three and at least 10 Fantasy points in two (both this season). The
Chargers have allowed five scores and at least 13 Fantasy points to each
No. 1 receiver they've taken on. I'd take a big chance on Moore this
week.
I'd start him over: Larry Fitzgerald, Eric Decker
Jets at Falcons, Mon., 8:40 p.m. ET
I'm impressed with the Jets' defensive front but the secondary has some issues. The Titans connected for four passing touchdowns last week, although one was on a weird play where Antonio Cromartie ran into a ref. With the Falcons at 1-3 and in desperate need of a get-right game, I'd expect a monster game from Matt Ryan.
No-brainers: Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez
Bilal Powell, RB, Jets: My Projection: 10 FPTS
Powell
might be the Jets' best offensive weapon! He's had 15-plus touches in
each of his last three games and has a good firm grip on the playing
time. Mike Goodson might take a handful
of touches. The Falcons have allowed a rushing score in two straight
games and are allowing 5.1 yards per carry over their last three games.
I'd
start him over: Chris Johnson, any
Chargers RB
Jeremy Kerley, WR, Jets: My Projection: 7 FPTS
Kellen Winslow, TE, Jets: My Projection: 6 FPTS
You're looking
at the Jets' top two receiving threats given the injuries suffered by Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill.
Kerley's playing time should go up as should his targets while going
against a Falcons defense that has struggled with receivers (six scores
through four games). Winslow should also see a lot of balls aimed in his
direction as the Falcons have yielded three touchdowns to tight ends
through four games, including two goal-line jobs in consecutive weeks.
Low-end
WR flow chart: Steve Smith > Jeremy Kerley > any Rams or Bills WR
Low-end TE flow chart: Charles Clay > Brent Celek > Kellen Winslow > any Bengals TE
Jason Snelling, RB, Falcons: My Projection: 6 FPTS
Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Falcons: My Projection: 6 FPTS
The matchup
is rough for these guys. The Jets haven't allowed a score to a running
back since Week 1 and have held rushers to 2.9 yards per carry through
four games. If either guy makes an impact it'll be as a receiver or in
garbage time -- and it's pending Steven Jackson's
availability of course.
I'd rather start: DeAngelo Williams, Knowshon Moreno
Roddy White, WR, Falcons: My Projection: 3 FPTS
White
looked mostly fine last week and I liked him for Week 5 until he
disclosed he
suffered a setback. Keep him out of lineups until Week 7 the
soonest.
I'd rather start: Ted Ginn,
Michael Floyd
Bills at Browns, Thu., 8:30 p.m. ET
The short week is dangerous for injured Bills running backs C.J. Spiller (ankle) and Fred Jackson (knee). Both are expected to play against one of the most impressive run defenses in the league. Any further injury suffered could cost them some games -- Spiller specifically couldn't play effectively and had to be pulled late last week and has left each of the Bills' last two games early.
No-brainer: Jordan Cameron
Fred Jackson, RB, Bills: My Projection: 10 FPTS
C.J. Spiller, RB, Bills: My Projection: 6 FPTS
Let's start
with the matchup: The Browns have allowed 89.5 total yards per game to
running backs and have given up over 100 total yards to only Adrian Peterson. The Bills backs are expected to continue to split
with Jackson the more productive back and potentially the one to lead
the way given Spiller's physical status. If Spiller had a hard time
running well when he was healthy, how's he going to do coming off of a
sprained ankle on three days rest?
I'd start Jackson over: Chris Johnson, Maurice Jones-Drew
I'd
rather start over Spiller: DeAngelo Williams,
Lamar Miller
Steve Johnson, WR, Bills: My Projection: 6 FPTS
Cleveland's
pass defense is improving. The unit did a masterful job against the
Bengals last week and held down the Vikings the week before. Not a
single No. 1 receiver has exceeded eight Fantasy points against them.
Johnson posted 61 yards and a touchdown on the Browns last year while
cornerback Joe Haden was suspended.
I'd
rather start: Brian Hartline, Jeremy Kerley
Scott Chandler, TE, Bills: My Projection: 4 FPTS
Chandler
seems to be rounding into a regular role with the Bills, albeit one that
makes him a Fantasy sensation. The Browns have yet to allow a touchdown
or 60 receiving yards to any tight end they've faced this season.
I'd
rather start: Kellen Winslow, Brandon Pettigrew
Brian Hoyer, QB, Browns: My Projection: 20 FPTS
Thursday
night games don't tend to favor quarterbacks but this matchup is juicy.
The Bills have allowed two passing touchdowns to every opponent they've
faced and at least 275 pass yards to three of four opponents. Hoyer
might turn the ball over once or twice but he still should pay off.
I'd
start him over: Jay Cutler, Eli Manning
Willis McGahee, RB, Browns: My Projection: 8 FPTS
Chris Ogbonnaya, RB, Browns: My Projection: 5 FPTS
The theory
here is that the Browns can build a lead and grind down the Bills run
defense, which has yet to allow a touchdown to a running back but has
given up 116.0 rush yards per game. That average includes the ludicrous
24 rush yards the Ravens posted on just nine carries last week. McGahee
is the grinder and Ogbonnaya can work on passing downs. Both are risks
but not total duds depending on the league size and scoring.
I'd
start McGahee over: Knowshon Moreno,
Stevan Ridley
I'd start Ogbonnaya
over: Joique Bell, Bernard Pierce
Josh Gordon, WR, Browns: My Projection: 12 FPTS
Buffalo
has allowed six receivers to post at least 10 Fantasy points and three
to post at least 19 Fantasy points. Wideouts have caught four touchdowns
over the last two games against Buffalo. Gordon should be given another
chance after disappointing last week.
I'd start him over: DeSean Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald
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