Spring training is well underway, so what better time to start running through our annual team-by-team previews? We're running these in reverse order of 2015 finish, and now the Los Angeles Angels are up.
Previous: ATL | BAL | BOS | CIN | CLE | CHW | COL | DET | MIA | MIL | MIN | OAK | PHI | SD | SEA | SF | TB | WAS
Two years ago the Angels won 98 games and had the best record in all of baseball. Last season they slipped back to 85 wins and missed the postseason, but, to their credit, they were in the race right up until the final game of the regular season.
The Halos finished one game back of the Astros for the second Wild Card spot, so when you think about it, Houston's wild two-out comeback in the ninth inning in Anaheim on September 13th (HOU 5, LAA 3) was the difference in the Wild Card race. Here's the video:
That might have been the difference between a postseason spot and going home. A ground ball getting stuck in Taylor Featherston's glove. There were still 20 games to go after that one, but man, the Angels had a three-run lead with two outs and the bases empty in the ninth. Close that win out and the postseason race is totally different.
In the offseason the Angels hired a new GM, former Yankees assistant GM Billy Eppler, and he didn't have many resources to work with. The Halos reportedly did not want to exceed the luxury tax threshold, meaning he didn't have much money to spend. The Angels also have the worst farm system in baseball, so Eppler didn't have many prospects to trade either. Not great.
Eppler did as much as he could this offseason to improve a team with the best player in the world and very clear needs. Will it be enough to contend in the AL West, or even for a Wild Card spot? Let's preview the Angels' season.
The Lineup
As always, the batting order is subject to change throughout the season. Consider this our best guess for manager Mike Scioscia's lineup come Opening Day:
- 3B Yunel Escobar
- LF Daniel Nava
- CF Mike Trout
- DH Albert Pujols
- RF Kole Calhoun
- 1B C.J. Cron
- SS Andrelton Simmons
- C Carlos Perez
- 2B Johnny Giavotella
Trout, obviously, is the centerpiece of the offense. He is the best player in baseball and last season he set new career highs in home runs (41), slugging percentage (.590), and total bases (339). He is the single most valuable player in the game in my opinion. The Angels are a borderline contender with him. Take Trout away and they might be a last place team.
Is there enough around Trout for the Angels to have a strong offense? Pujols did whack 40 homers a year ago, though he's clearly no longer the hitter he once was, and he's currently working his way back from offseason foot surgery. That's why he's penciled in at DH rather than his usual first base.
Calhoun is a personal favorite, and while he did hit a career high (by far) 26 home runs in 2015, it came at the expense of on-base percentage (.308) and strikeouts (164). He hit 17 homers with a .325 OBP and 104 strikeouts in 2014. Which version is better, the Calhoun who hits for power and strikes out a lot, or the Calhoun who hits fewer homers but gets on base? WAR says it's the 2014 version.
Last season Escobar hit .314/.375/.415 (113 OPS+) with the Nationals and it was his best offensive season in about five years. He put up .256/.318/.350 (87 OPS+) batting line in over 1,700 plate appearances from 2012-14. It's kind of hard to believe the Angels couldn't find the money to bring David Freese back -- he signed a one-year, $3 million deal with the Pirates recently -- which would have allowed them to slide Yunel to second base to beef up their infield.
The rest of the lineup is where things get a little sketchy. Nava is having a phenomenal spring -- he's 14-for-25 (.560) with eight walks and one strikeout -- but is coming off a season in which he hit .194/.315/.245 (56 OPS+). At his best with the Red Sox a few years ago, Nava was a platoon bat against righties (he's a switch-hitter but can't hit lefties), so the Halos are hoping to get him to back to that point in 2016.
Cron is a bit like former Angel Mark Trumbo in that he's a brute masher with power but not great on-base skills. He doesn't have Trumbo's power, but he did swat 16 homers in 404 plate appearances last season, so he is a threat to top 25 homers with a full-season of at-bats. Perez is a defense-first catcher and Giavotella is the quintessential stopgap second baseman. He's there until the Angels can find someone better.
Eppler's big offseason acquisition was Simmons. He traded top pitching prospects Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis (and veteran shortstop Erick Aybar) to get Andrelton, and that was a smart move. Eppler didn't trade his few legitimate prospects for a rental. He acquired a young above-average player at a premium position who is signed long-term.
As smart a pickup as it was, Simmons is a below-average hitter, putting up a .255/.304/.335 (80 OPS+) batting line the last two years after surprisingly clocking 17 homers in 2013. The name of his game is defense and he is the best defensive shortstop in baseball. (He has been hampered by arm tightness this spring and is spending a lot of time at DH, though all indications are it is precautionary.)
On the bench will be speedy outfielder Craig Gentry, who figures to platoon with Nava, and veteran backup catcher Geovany Soto. If the Angels struggle to score runs, I wouldn't be surprised to see Soto get more at-bats than Perez. Cliff Pennington is the backup infielder and the final bench spot will likely go to Rule 5 Draft pick Ji-Man Choi, a first baseman and outfielder. It's not the best bench but it'll do.
The Angels are going to get MVP caliber projection from Trout, and they can count on Pujols and Cron to hit the ball out of the park. Calhoun will hit as well, and even if Escobar doesn't repeat his 2015 performance, he'll chip in enough with the bat. The big questions are Nava and Simmons. Can Nava bounce back from his rough 2015 and be an asset against righties? Can Simmons, who is still only 26, make progress offensively?
I'm concerned the Halos won't get much offense from the catcher, second base, and left field positions. That's one-third of the lineup right there. The team averaged only 4.08 runs per game last season, 20th out of the 30 clubs, and that was with Freese and with Pujols hitting 40 homers. For what it's worth, FanGraphs projects this group to score 4.26 runs per game in 2016, so the objective computer algorithms are optimistic.
The Rotation
Scioscia's team has already dealt with some rotation issues in camp. Lefty C.J. Wilson came down with a shoulder problem and will not be ready to start the season. Veteran righty Jered Weaver has been throwing 80 mph nothingballs and recently was diagnosed with "mild degenerative changes" in his cervical spine. He'll pitch in a minor league game this weekend and the plan right now is to have him in the Opening Day rotation.
Here is the team's projected starting five:
- RHP Garrett Richards
- RHP Jered Weaver
- LHP Hector Santiago
- RHP Matt Shoemaker
- LHP Andrew Heaney
Richards bounced back from his brutal knee injury quite well last season, pitching to a 3.65 ERA (103 ERA+) in 207 1/3 innings. He wasn't quite as effective as he was prior to the injury in 2014 (138 OPS+), but I'll cut him some slack because he was coming off such a tough injury and rehab. I expect big things from Richards in 2016.
By the end of the season I believe Heaney will emerge as the team's second best pitcher behind Richards. The southpaw, who went from the Marlins to the Dodgers in the Dee Gordon trade, then from the Dodgers to the Angels in the Howie Kendrick trade, had a 3.49 ERA (107 ERA+) in 105 2/3 innings last year. He's not a budding ace or anything, but Heaney looks very much like a future midrotation horse.
Santiago was an All-Star last season thanks to a 2.33 ERA in the first half. He struggled after the break (5.47 ERA) and finished the season with a 3.59 ERA in 180 2/3 innings. That is exactly who Santiago is. He had a 3.58 ERA from 2012-14. Shoemaker finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2014, then lost his rotation spot in 2015 due to extreme homer issues. He's in the rotation due to Wilson's injury.
An awful lot attention is being paid to Weaver's velocity and understandably so. It has been scary low this spring, and it's been trending downward for years now:
Yikes. That is bad.
I will say this though: Weaver had a 4.64 ERA (81 ERA+) in 159 innings last season with a fastball that averaged 83.3 mph. There are kids throwing in the low-80s in college who get rocked every time out. Weaver was throwing in the low-80s in the big leagues and didn't get destroyed. He wasn't great, but he wasn't a total disaster either.
Will that be the case in 2016? I have a hard time thinking any non-knuckleball pitcher can get by with a fastball around 80 mph at the MLB level. Surely the Angels are hoping this recent neck issue is the cause of Weaver's lost velocity, and once healthy, he can resume chucking it in the mid-80s. His days of greatness are over. At least he can chew up some innings.
As for depth, the Angels have young Nick Tropeano and Tyler Skaggs in reserve. Tropeano is healthy and ticketed for Triple-A. He's next in line should someone get injured. Skaggs is slowly working his way back from Tommy John surgery and should be ready at some point in the first half of 2016. I like Skaggs. I wouldn't be completely surprised if, come October, the Angels went into the postseason with a 1-2-3 of Richards-Heaney-Skaggs.
The Bullpen
Eppler used sinkerballing setup man Trevor Gott to acquire Esobar, and I think any time you can flip a reliever for an above-average infielder, you have to do it. The trade leaves Scioscia with this bullpen:
Closer: RHP Huston Street
Setup: RHP Joe Smith
Middle: RHP Al Alburquerque, RHP Fernando Salas, LHP Jose Alvarez, RHP Mike Morin
Long: RHP Deolis Guerra
Righties Cory Rasmus and Cam Bedrosian are in the bullpen mix as well. Street and Smith are a solid end-game duo. They're not as flashy as some other late-inning relievers, but they're consistently above-average and reliable. You could do a lot worse in the eighth and ninth inning if you're trying to contend.
Morin is someone with a chance to have much more success in 2016. His ugly 6.37 ERA (59 ERA+) last year disguised excellent strikeout (10.4 K/9) and walk (2.3 BB/9) rates. Sabermetrics loved him (2.85 FIP). Morin fell victim to an insanely low 44.4 percent strand rate in 2015. The league average is 72.9 percent. There are 2,521 instances of a pitcher throwing at least 30 innings in a season from 2010-15. Morin's strand rate ranks 2,521st. Dead last. That's a fluky, unsustainably low number. Expect him to be a lot better in 2016.
Alburquerque was brought in to replace Gott while Salas and Alvarez are holdovers from last season. Alvarez is the lone southpaw and he was effective against lefties last year (60 OPS+). I wonder if Scioscia would like a second left-hander for all those big AL West lefty bats though (Robinson Cano, Kyle Seager, Prince Fielder, Josh Reddick, Colby Rasmus, etc.).
Back in the day Guerra was part of the package the Mets sent to the Twins for Johan Santana. He finally made his MLB debut in 2015 and had a 6.48 ERA (61 ERA+) in 16 2/3 innings with the Pirates. His Triple-A strikeout (9.1 K/9) and walk (2.0 BB/9) rates were phenomenal though, so the Angels popped him in the Rule 5 Draft. He has to stay on their 25-man active roster all season or be offered back to Pittsburgh, which gives him a leg up on an Opening Day roster spot.
I'm bullish on Morin and the Angels have a strong back-end with Smith and Street. The middle relief is a bit hit or miss, though that's not uncommon. Lots of team have to figure out the middle of their bullpen.
The Outlook
The Angels are one of those teams I could see winning 90 games or losing 90 games. There are so many questions on the roster. What will they get from Pujols and Weaver? Will they get enough offense from left field? How does the middle relief shake out? Every team has questions, but those are big questions, and the answers figure to be the difference between going to the postseason and missing the playoffs.
Our SportsLine projections peg the Angels for an 82-80 record in 2016 and that's sounds pretty reasonable to me. It wouldn't be enough to get them back to the postseason, not even as a Wild Card team. That Eppler's hands are tied financially and he has so few tradeable prospects only makes things worse. How is he supposed to add help at midseason?
As great as Trout is, I don't think the Angels have put enough pieces around him to contend this season. And with their MLB worst farm system, they might not be able to put the pieces around him anytime soon either. That's a bummer. Trout is only 24, he's historically great, and he's signed five more years. This is the time to win with him.
I've seen some speculation the Angels should look to trade Trout for a godfather package to kickstart a rebuild. I don't think the Halos are there yet. I'm not even sure any team in the league can offer enough talent to make owner Arte Moreno consider it at this point. Both Weaver and Wilson will be off the books after the season, so the Angels should have more payroll flexibility going forward. That doesn't help them in 2016 though.
Coming Sunday: The New York Yankees.
