The defending National League champion Philadelphia Phillies hope to remain perfect at home this postseason when they host the Arizona Diamondbacks in Game 6 of the 2023 NLCS on Monday. Philadelphia, which is one win away from its second consecutive trip to the World Series, has gone 6-0 at Citizens Bank Park in the 2023 MLB playoffs and 12-2 over the last two postseasons. Phillies right-hander Aaron Nola (3-0, 0.96 ERA) looks to improve to 5-1 in six career home playoff starts, while the Diamondbacks counter with righty Merrill Kelly (1-1, 3.00).
First pitch is set for 5:07 p.m. ET. Philadelphia is the -183 favorite (risk $183 to win $100) on the money line in the latest Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds, while the over/under for total runs scored is 8. Before locking in any Diamondbacks vs. Phillies picks, be sure to check out the latest MLB predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It went 331-285 on top-rated MLB money-line picks (+357) over the past two seasons. It entered the NLCS and ALCS of the 2023 MLB playoffs 93-74 on all top-rated MLB picks this season and has excelled on top-rated run-line picks, going 18-6 (+766). Anybody following has seen big returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Phillies vs. Diamondbacks and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several MLB betting lines and trends for Diamondbacks vs. Phillies:
- Phillies vs. Diamondbacks money line: Philadelphia -183, Arizona +154
- Phillies vs. Diamondbacks run line: Philadelphia -1.5 (+115)
- Phillies vs. Diamondbacks over/under: 8 runs
- PHI: The Phillies have returned +553 on the money line in home games this season
- AZ: The Diamondbacks have returned +770 on the money line in road games this season
- Phillies vs. Diamondbacks picks: See picks at SportsLine
Why you should back the Phillies
Philadelphia was third in the NL with 220 home runs during the regular season and has maintained its power in the 2023 MLB playoffs as it leads all teams with 23 blasts. Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos have belted five apiece, while Trea Turner and J.T. Realmuto both have gone deep three times. Each of Castellanos' shots have come at home, where the Phillies have swatted 17 homers in six playoff contests.
Harper has been exceptional at Citizens Bank Park over the last two postseasons, batting .367 with seven homers and 17 RBI in 14 games. He and Schwarber went deep in Game 5 to pull even with Jayson Werth for the most playoff blasts in team history (11). Schwarber's shot was the 20th of his postseason career, tying him with Derek Jeter for fourth on the all-time list. It also left him one shy of the record for most in one LCS, which Nelson Cruz set when he went deep six times for Texas in the 2011 ALCS. See which team to back here.
Why you should back the Diamondbacks
Arizona was outscored 15-3 at Philadelphia while losing the first two games of the NLCS but battled back to even the series with a pair of late comeback victories before dropping Game 5. Ketel Marte has been red-hot at the plate as he enters Monday with a 14-game playoff hitting streak and a .372 batting average this postseason. The 30-year-old Dominican has recorded five multi-hit performances in these playoffs and was the hero of Game 3 as he completed a three-hit effort with a walk-off RBI single in the ninth inning.
Alek Thomas also has had a strong postseason for the Diamondbacks thus far. The 23-year-old has homered in back-to-back contests, with his two-run blast in the eighth inning tying Game 4 before Arizona went on to post a 6-5 victory. Thomas' solo shot in Game 5 was his fourth homer of the 2023 playoffs, the most in a single postseason in franchise history. See which team to back here.
How to make Diamondbacks vs. Phillies picks
SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 8.9 combined runs. It also says one side on the money line has all the value. You can only get the model's MLB picks at SportsLine.
So who wins Phillies vs. Diamondbacks, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has gone 93-74 on its top-rated MLB picks, and find out.
