Pitching in his first career World Series game, Clayton Kershaw will get the nod for the Los Angeles Dodgers against the Astros' Dallas Keuchel. These two pitchers have performed well in the postseason. Kershaw is currently 3-0 with a 3.63 ERA and Keuchel is 2-1 with an ERA of 2.60. In their three starts, both pitchers have gone 17 1/3 innings. Keuchel holds a significant strikeout edge of 25-16, but Kershaw holds a slight edge in WHIP at 0.98 to Keuchel's 1.12.
All of this to say: Outside of names, this match-up plays out really well on paper. Both pitchers are having good-not-great postseasons and they're doing it in a way that doesn't deviate from their normal pitching styles (minus some odds and ends) -- so it's obviously sustainable. Kershaw is still using his fastball to set up other pitches deeper in counts, whereas Keuchel is still reliant upon his hard breaking piches (specifically his sinker) to a big degree. The only difference between regular season Keuchel and postseason Keuchel has been a near abandonment of his changeup.
These two teams have an incredibly short history against each other, so both are mostly going in blind in terms of batter vs. pitcher match-ups. Only five batters (or potential batters) in this series have seen more than 10 at-bats against the pitcher they're respectively facing, which makes for an excitingly ambiguous match-up.
Clayton Kershaw pitch selection
Regular vs. Postseason | Fourseam | Sinker | Curve | Slider | Changeup |
Regular Season | 46.39% | 0.93% | 16.63% | 34.88% | 1.18% |
Postseason | 48.30% | 2.84% | 15.34% | 32.39% | 1.14% |
As we can see here, the name of the game for Kershaw is consistency. He doesn't move to gimmicks in the postseason -- he's going to continue doing what he does so well. Kershaw's pitch spread is actually interesting for a left-handed pitcher. It's not often that a pitcher with a slider that breaks in will use one so reliably, but Kershaw's slider has an added downward break to the normal sweeping motion. This allows him to throw one about 33 percent of the time without an elevated home run rate. Kershaw's curve works as his offspeed pitch -- whereas the changeup will only be thrown once or twice a game.
It's Kershaw's consistency that makes him dangerous. You know what he'll do, you just can't hit it. Mechanics, velocity and pitch selection all stay the same with Kershaw. His precise control of his fourseam and his lethally arcing curve are what make him special. His fourseam averages 93.15 mph, whereas his curve sits at a sleep-inducing 74.23 mph average. His reliance on hard stuff allows him to get deep into games and puts less pressure on pitch counts as well, although of course manager Dave Roberts will want to ensure he's ready for further starts in the series.
Dallas Keuchel pitch selection
Regular vs. Postseason | Fourseam | Sinker | Cutter | Curve | Slider | Changeup |
Regular Season | 4.70% | 55.15% | 9.36% | 2.52% | 15.93% | 12.34% |
Postseason | 3.78% | 48.80% | 20.96% | 0.00% | 23.37% | 3.09% |
Keuchel has modified one key part of his game this postseason: He has completely eschewed anything offspeed. To be fair, even 2.52 percent is artificially high for regular season curveballs -- the only month he consistently threw them in was June this season. However, the dropoff in changeups in significant enough that it can pique interest. It's either a gimmick or an attempt to leave all gimmicks in the regular season. It was never Keuchel's favorite pitch to throw -- his sinker is his bread and butter -- but it was effective during the season.
Keuchel will have his work cut out for him against Kershaw, but he's also a horse. He can go deep into this game, and Houston needs him to. The Astros' bullpen depth is questionable relative to the Dodgers, and they're coming off of a shorter rest period. Kershaw will almost certainly go at least five innings barring a horrid outing, and Keuchel was pulled out in the fifth in his last start. If the Astros fall into an early bullpen hole in this series, it could be hard to climb out of.
Kershaw may be 3-0 this postseason, but he's gotten one key thing that he didn't in the past: Run support. The Dodgers' lineup has been brutal on pitchers, and the Astros have been incredibly hit or miss in terms of runs allowed this postseason. The Astros gave up three runs total in their four wins against the Yankees, and 19 in their three losses (there weren't outliers there either, the Yankees scored eight, six and five runs in those games). For the Astros, it seems like if the pitcher starts to fail at all, the bats follow shortly after.
This is a serious issue for the Astros. Kershaw is yet to give up runs before the third inning this postseason, and he hasn't given up multiple runs before the fourth. Keuchel can hold them in check, but in his shortest start he gave up a run in the second and another in the third to the Yankees. The Astros need to jump on Kershaw early to a.) give Keuchel confidence on the mound and b.) negate the early-game mojo that Kershaw has had all season. The only times he's given up runs this postseason have been with the game well in hand, which doesn't bode well.
Edge: Dodgers
At the end of the day, it's still Ace vs. No. 2. There was no way Verlander could pitch today, which may be a shame for the fans with the way both pitchers are pitching, but is still the way it has to be. Unless the Astros are able to knock Kershaw around a bit early -- even some threats to score the first time through the order may put Roberts on edge -- it could be a long day for Astros bats that have fallen asleep on the road for long stretches at a time. Postseason Kershaw is still by no means a dominant force, but it's still Kershaw. It's not a slight against Keuchel, but one run the first time through the order could spell death. That's a ton of pressure.
There's a decent chance that Kershaw will get touched up the second time through the order, but whichever pitcher makes it six in this game is likely going to be on the winning side. The potency of a Dodgers order that beat up the Cubs and is adding Corey Seager back into the mix supersedes the potency of the Astros, who have the best hitter in baseball, but don't have quite the same depth that the Dodgers do.
