For the first time since 2003, the New York Yankees are 4-0 to start the season. They completed a four-game sweep of the Houston Astros in Minute Maid Park on Sunday, and all four games were thrillers. New York came from behind to win each of the first three games, and Juan Soto broke the tie and the gave the Yankees the lead in the ninth inning in the fourth game.
"Dawg. Just put it like that. He's a dawg," Alex Verdugo said about Soto following Sunday's win. "We're dawgs out there."
Soto's first series as a Yankee could not have gone better. The Yankees won all four games and he's sitting on a .529/.600/.765 batting line after being front and center in all four wins. To wit:
- Thursday: Threw the tying run out at the plate in the ninth inning.
- Friday: Drove in the go-ahead run with a bases loaded walk.
- Saturday: Hit the go-ahead home run in the seventh inning.
- Sunday: Singled in the game-winning run in the ninth inning.
"That's the kind of start I wanted," Soto said after Sunday's game. "I grinded really hard this offseason and in spring training to be successful in the beginning of the season. Thank God it's happening my way."
It's only four games and there is a lot -- A LOT -- of season remaining, but the first series went about as well as the Yankees could have hoped. GM Brian Cashman called last season's 82-80 record a "disaster" and the Yankees needed a major vibes shift this offseason. The fan base would have been restless (more restless, really) with a slow start this year. Instead, they're 4-0.
At the risk of making too much of four games in March, here are four reasons the Yankees should be encouraged by their 4-0 start beyond Soto showing he really is that dude.
1. They won without Judge contributing
All things considered, it was a quiet weekend for Aaron Judge, who went 2 for 16 at the plate. He did have some moments -- most notably doubling to start the go-ahead rally Thursday -- but it wasn't an especially productive series for the 2022 AL MVP. An abdominal injury limited Judge to 10 at-bats in the final 17 days of spring training and it showed. His timing isn't there yet.
Despite Judge not doing a whole lot, the Yankees won four times in four games anyway, and winning when Judge didn't contribute just didn't happen very often the last two years. Shut Judge down and you shut the Yankees down. In 106 games played last year, Judge went hitless 43 times, and the Yankees were 16-27 in those 43 games. In the 63 games Judge did get a hit, they were 41-22.
We should include Gleyber Torres here too. Like Judge, he had a significant moment -- Torres singled and stole second ahead of Soto's game-winning hit Sunday -- in an otherwise quiet series, and went 2 for 15 overall. Judge and Torres were, by far, New York's two best hitters in 2023. If those two went a combined 4-31 in a series last year, the Yankees were doomed. This year, they're 4-0 anyway.
At some point the Yankees will need Judge and Torres to produce. They are important players and can't just tag along for the ride. The Astros series shows though that, thanks largely to Soto, the Yankees are no longer so heavily reliant on Judge to generate offense. When he has a bad night or a bad series, they can still grind out wins. In the past, that was very difficult.
2. They're grinding out at-bats
Cashman described Soto as a "transformational bat" soon after the trade in December and it almost seems like the entire lineup has taken on his personality. Granted, the Yankees have several new players and hitting coaches this year, but this was one of the worst offenses in the league last season, and they didn't do a great job wearing down opposing pitchers.
Here are the 2023 numbers:
| Yankees | MLB rank | |
|---|---|---|
Runs per game | 4.15 | 25th |
Batting average | .227 | 29th |
On-base percentage | .304 | 27th |
Walk rate | 9.3% | 6th |
Pitches per plate appearance | 3.95 | 7th |
Chase rate | 26.9% | 9th |
To start this season, the Yankees worked six walks in 4 2/3 innings against Framber Valdez on Opening Day. Four Astros relievers needed 87 pitches to get nine outs in Game 2 on Friday. Hunter Brown threw 88 pitches in four innings Saturday. Combined, Houston's pitchers threw 687 pitches in the four-game series. Yankees pitchers threw only 546 to get the same number of outs.
The Yankees swept the Astros because they wore down their starting pitchers and then beat up on the bullpen. That approach is not quite as effective as it was a decade or two ago because starters are often limited to two trips through the lineup these days and every bullpen is full of ogres who throw 100 mph, but it does still work, and the Yankees didn't do it much last year.
Four games in, there is a higher quality and a different level of tenacity to the at-bats the Yankees are taking. The new personnel (Soto, Verdugo, etc.) surely helps, though even incumbents like Oswaldo Cabrera and Anthony Volpe are showing more discipline as well. Simply put, last year's offense was a pushover outside Judge and Torres. It's a much different look early on this year.
"He embodies what we want to be," Yankees manager Aaron Boone said about Soto following Saturday's game (via MLB.com). "It's a fight every time he walks into the batter's box."
3. The outfield defense is improved
The Yankees had a bad offense last season and also a terrible outfield defense. Harrison Bader, a standout defender in center, was limited to 76 starts by injuries before being let go on waivers once the Yankees were out of the postseason race. He led the team in outfield starts. The leaderboard behind him isn't particularly pretty:
- Harrison Bader: 76 outfield starts (Gold Glove level defender)
- Aaron Judge: 66 (good defender)
- Isiah Kiner-Falefa: 61 (converted infielder)
- Oswaldo Cabrera: 59 (converted infielder)
- Jake Bauers: 46 (converted first baseman)
- Billy McKinney: 38 (an actual outfielder!)
- Giancarlo Stanton: 33 (essentially a DH)
Not surprisingly, Yankees outfielders ranked second to last with minus-29 defensive runs saved a year ago, and 20th among the 30 teams with minus-11 outs above average. There were days the Yankees straight up could not count on their left fielder to catch a routine fly ball. They were playing inexperienced (and, frankly, unqualified) players in the outfield on the regular.
Bringing in actual outfielders was a priority this offseason, which led the Yankees not only to Soto and Verdugo, but also Trent Grisham, a two-time Gold Glover in center. He came over in the Soto trade and is serving as New York's fourth outfielder (Grisham started Saturday's game in Houston). Soto and Verdugo made several standout defensive plays over the weekend:
"That's money time right there with the game on the line," Boone said about Verdugo's sliding catch to end Sunday's game (via the New York Daily News). "It seemed like he got a great read. My first instinct off the bat was, 'That's dropping in (to tie the game).' When I looked up, he was on the dead-run tracking it. Almost knew he had it. He kind of hotdogged it, but I loved it."
To be clear, Soto has rated as a below-average defender for most of his career, and Verdugo's defensive performance has been up and down. They're still upgrades for this outfield though. The Yankees had a dreadful outfield defense last year, maybe the worst in the league, and now it might merely be below average. Maybe even average? That qualifies as a considerable upgrade.
Poor defense hurts in so many ways. It's extra outs and extra bases for the other team. It's more pitches for your pitchers and more taxing on the bullpen. New York's outfielders turned too many catchable balls into hits last season. It had to be addressed and it has to at least some extent, with Verdugo's range in left field being particularly noticeable early on.
4. They won the season series over Houston
And that means the Yankees hold the tiebreaker over the Astros. Should these two teams finish tied for a wild-card spot at the end of the season, the Yankees are in and the Astros will go home. The Yankees are 4-0 against Houston this season and they have only three head-to-head games remaining: May 7-9 at Yankee Stadium.
Finishing tied for a wild-card spot is unlikely, of course, but you'd rather have the tiebreaker and not need it than need it and not have it. The Astros know that as well as anyone. Last year they finished with the same 90-72 record as the Texas Rangers and were named AL West champions because they won the season series 9-4 and held the tiebreaker (the Rangers got the last laugh in the ALDS, obviously). Holding the tiebreaker means the Yankees have one less thing to worry about now.
Despite the 4-0 start, not all is well in Yankeeland. Gerrit Cole is on the 60-day injured list with an elbow issue and will be out until at least May 27, and more likely early June. Carlos Rodón, who badly needs a rebound season, put eight men on base in four innings in his first start. The bullpen has already been worked hard, with closer Clay Holmes pitching three times in the first four games.
That all said, the Yankees could not have asked for a better start to 2024, especially after last year's disappointing 82-80 effort. Soto has made an immediate impact, ditto less heralded pickups like Verdugo and Marcus Stroman, and young players like Cabrera and Volpe are showing signs of taking a step forward. There are areas the Yankees need to improve. Just not as many as last year.
