The Mets have of course ripped off consecutive playoff appearances, and the high-ceiling young-to-youngish rotation has been the most conspicuous part of their franchise revival. To hear some predict it, it’s that corps of starters that will lead the Mets to even loftier heights in 2017.
And that may well happen. However, a roster with some much forecasted value tied up in starting pitching, there’s much risk. In the case of the 2017 Mets, that’s the case to an even greater extent. On this point, consider the recent injury histories of the Mets’ most central starting pitchers ...
Nevermind the blister problems that cut short his Opening Day gem against the Braves. We’re talking potentially more serious concerns. Specifically, Syndergaard pitched much of the 2016 season while being hampered by bone spurs in his right elbow. The player and team eventually decided against surgery to remove them (unlike teammate Steven Matz), but it remains something of a concern. That’s perhaps even more so the case considering that Syndergaard is the hardest-throwing starting pitcher in baseball and has stated his intent to throw even harder this season.
Yes, bone spurs are common among major-league pitchers and are something of an occupational hazard. However, bone spurs can also grow over time. That’s worth bearing in mind considering we’re talking about a 24-year-old ace who regularly dwells in the triple digits.
DeGrom has spent parts of three seasons in the majors, and over that relatively brief span he’s spent time on the disabled list with rotator cuff tendinitis and undergone surgery to adjust the ulnar nerve in his right elbow. So that’s a shoulder and elbow injury, and those are of course the two things you worry about most with pitchers. Nothing predicts injuries in baseball like previous injuries, especially injuries in the season prior. That’s worth keeping in mind with regard to all of these names.
Harvey, not so long ago the embodiment of the Mets’ near- and long-term hopes, has been waylaid by serious injuries ever since his standout 2013 campaign. He’s come back from Tommy John surgery and enjoyed a strong 2015. However, he struggled last season across 17 starts before being shut down with shoulder problems. Harvey eventually underwent surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome. That’s not as common of a pitching affliction as the UCL tear or anything involving the rotator cuff or labrum, but it’s a serious one. On occasion, it ends pitching careers. Suffice it to say, Harvey is an unknown quantity moving forward.
Wheeler cracked the rotation coming out of camp, but let’s keep in mind that the soon-to-be 27-year-old hasn’t pitched since 2014. That’s because he underwent Tommy John surgery in March 2015, and it’s taken him until now to recover from it. That time-frame serves as a necessary reminder that a full and normal recovery from said procedure is never to be assumed. Given his past elbow issues and his difficulties in coming back -- and given that he’s dealt with elbow tenderness this spring -- Wheeler doesn’t inspire a great deal of confidence when it comes to pitching well at the highest level and remaining healthy.
The lefty was ticketed to be the Mets’ fifth starter, but he’s presently on the DL with elbow inflammation. Matz also tore a lat muscle in 2015 and dealt with elbow problems last year. Speaking of last year, Matz didn’t make a start after Aug. 16 because of shoulder tightness. Those are a lot of concerns in a short amount of time.
Of course, all of this is why you compile depth. And what about that depth? The Mets were able to make the playoffs last season despite getting just 93 starts from the quintet detailed above. They withstood those injuries last season largely because Bartolo Colon put up an ERA+ of 119 across 33 starts. Well, he’ll be starting in the Mets’ game on Wednesday, but he’ll be doing so as a member of the Atlanta Braves. There’s also Seth Lugo, who made eight starts (2.68 ERA) after Harvey went down. Here’s the latest on the right-hander ...
Per team source, Seth Lugo has a slight UCL tear in elbow. No surgery needed. Received PRP injection and he will rest.
— Marc Carig (@MarcCarig) April 4, 2017
And ...
On #Mets’ Lugo: Dr. James Andrews is reviewing his medicals today, per source. Standard next step.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) April 4, 2017
So there’s that developing situation, as well. Given the current uniform of Colon and the current bodily state of Lugo, that depth is much less certain for 2017. The in-house depth beyond Robert Gsellman, who’s already in the rotation at the moment, doesn’t inspire much confidence.
Also, those Mets pitchers will be toiling in front of what figures to be one of the worst team defenses in all of baseball, especially up the middle. That is to say, strikeouts will be needed, and the vigorous pursuit of strikeouts doesn’t lend itself to anything less than maximum effort.
When it comes to the health of the rotation, the Mets are on less sure footing than they were a year ago. When it comes to handling the attrition likely headed their way, the Mets are similarly on less sure footing than they were a year ago. Now consider that the NL East-rival Nationals have improved their roster. Also consider that one can argue that the Cardinals and Giants, presumptive wild card contenders, have also improved their rosters. The Mets may have less room to breathe than they did in 2016, when they eeked out a postseason berth by a single game.
In other words, that rotation needs to stay healthy, even though recent history strongly suggests it won’t.
